Carnegie Connects

As 2025 draws to a close, the fate of the Trump administration’s twenty point plan to end the war in Gaza, disarming Hamas and withdrawing Israeli forces, and facilitate good governance, security and reconstruction, has run headlong into harsh Middle Eastern realities. The administration is promising a transition to phase two by the end of the year, but the status of the International Stabilizatio...

It’s no coincidence that the framers—reflecting the importance of the legislative branch—laid out the responsibilities and powers of Congress in Article I, with the executive second, and the judiciary third. And yet as 2025 draws to a close, the role of Congress seems overshadowed by the other branches. What’s happened to skew the balance of power the founders intended? Does Congress still matter...

Perhaps no country in the Middle East has attracted more interest of the Trump administration than Saudi Arabia. President Trump took his first foreign trip there during his first term and he remains focused on the possibility of Israeli-Saudi normalization as part of a regional peace agreement in pursuit of a Nobel Peace prize. The visit of Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman (MBS) to the White Hous...

From covering the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and South Sudan, to examining America’s evolving status on the global stage, to mounting concerns about American democracy under the Trump Administration, Pulitzer Prize winning journalist and  New York Times  opinion columnist Nicholas Kristof has had plenty to cover throughout 2025. Kristof’s columns always inspire discussion and debate about the most...

As President Donald Trump prepares for his upcoming trip to South Korea to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be on the agenda. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung first suggested the meeting during his recent trip to Washington. Trump and Kim seem open to the possibility, with one major caveat: Kim has stated publicly that disc...

As we enter the third year of the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Trump administration has offered up a plan to end the war in Gaza. But can it be implemented? The goals of the Netanyahu government and Hamas seem all but irreconcilable. Meanwhile, the hostages and the Palestinian civilian population of Gaza continue to endure horrific conditions.  How does the war end? What does the future hold for the...

Nearly two years into the Israel-Hamas war, the two-state solution is back in the news with the United Nations General Assembly voting in support. Unlike in years past, October 7 and the drawn-out conflict in Gaza has led to a wider and much more polarized conversation.  European nations, Arab states, and much of the international community are advocating for Palestinian statehood, while the Trump...

In a world defined by seemingly intractable conflicts, great power competition, and rising challenges posed by climate change, nuclear proliferation, and economic uncertainty, the United States often seems like a modern-day Gulliver tied up and constrained by powers large and small and at times by its own politics and illusions.    How does the United States advance its national interests in the f...

Presidential summits can be useful in opening serious negotiations or closing them with an agreement. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming summit in Alaska is the latest attempt by the United States to advance peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine—now three and a half years into the war. The outcome of the summit may foreshadow the direction of future nego...

The United States took unprecedented action, striking three nuclear sites on June 22, following an ongoing campaign of Israeli attacks on Iranian leadership, nuclear, and energy targets. Iran responded to Israel with a barrage of ballistic missile strikes, but following the latest U.S. bombing, Tehran attacked with a reportedly well-telegraphed symbolic strike on American assets in Qatar.   For no...

A tenuous U.S. brokered cease-fire seems to be holding. But the challenge of converting it into a more enduring cessation of hostilities, let alone a political agreement to address the Iranian nuclear program, remain formidable. Is Iran interested in a deal on the nuclear issue in the aftermath of Israeli and U.S. strikes? What are the United States’ objectives in the period ahead and do they alig...

Israel’s surprise attacks last week against Iranian leadership targets, nuclear and military facilities, and Iran’s retaliation with ballistic missiles, have pushed the Israeli-Iranian conflict into unknown territory. Unlike the confrontations of April and October of 2024, this new phase is deadlier and shows no signs of abating.  What are Israel’s and Iran’s objectives? Can Israel destroy Iran’s...

Corruption, illicit foreign bribery schemes, and family members trading on presidential reputations for self-enrichment have surrounded the American political system for years. But the Trump presidency has embarked on an unprecedented scale of self-dealing out in the open, muddying the line between the national interest and those of the Trump family’s business enterprises. At the same time, the ad...

While the Trump administration was eager to jettison the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal in its first term, it now seems serious about negotiating another agreement in its second. And Iran, though wary of that seriousness and fearful of U.S. military action, appears willing to give negotiations a chance.    What are the prospects for success and the appetite for meaningful engagement with Iran? How wo...

Three months into his presidency, Donald Trump has embarked on an unprecedented effort to aggrandize executive power and extend his reach over the judiciary, Congress, the media, and even American culture and society. Perhaps the most alarming aspect has been his battle with the judiciary. The president has called for the impeachment of a federal judge; his executive orders have challenged, if not...

China is top of mind for all these days, including U.S. officials. Whether it's because of military exercises against Taiwan, a trade war with the United States, or China's efforts to block a deal on Tik Tok, getting tough on Beijing seems to be the order of the day. But are we getting China right? Are agreements between the United States and China on core interests possible? Or is the current sta...

In recent days, the Netanyahu government has doubled down on its efforts to consolidate its control and ramp up its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Following the firing of the former director of Shin Bet, an unprecedented decision in Israel’s history, the government has begun the more complicated process of terminating the attorney general, as well as changing the process by which judges...

Does public opinion matter in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Do leaders pay attention to the changing views of their respective constituencies? Each situation presents unique challenges for analysts and scholars trying to answer these questions. And those challenges have grown exponentially more complicated in the wake of October 7, 2023, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.   How have Israeli and...

All Presidents, Jonathan Alter wrote, are blind dates. Donald Trump may be the first who isn’t. Political analysts and historians not only have Trump’s first term to gauge his temperament and policies, but the four years preceding the 2024 elections, where he previewed his agenda for his second non-consecutive term. Even with that foreshadowing, Trump has crashed through traditional norms and conv...

As President Trump pursues his “America First” foreign policy agenda, much of the world is left wondering about what role the United States will now play in global affairs and the stark contrast of this administration from those that came before. Writing in Foreign Affairs in October 2023,  Jake Sullivan, then the National Security Adviser to President Joe Biden, asserted that the “essence of Pres...

“The outcome of the American election will have huge implications both for American institutions and for the world,” Francis Fukuyama  wrote  in September of last year. Just a few weeks into his second term, with a slew of executive orders and controversial appointments, President Donald Trump seems determined to refashion the fabric of American politics and society with the aim of aggrandizing pr...

Three years into Russia’s war against Ukraine, two undeniable realities appear to mark its future. Russian President Vladimir Putin believes time is on his side, and ongoing political changes in Washington are stirring worries that Ukraine can no longer count on sustained levels of military, economic and political assistance.  The Kremlin is not deviating from its ultimate goal of making Ukraine u...

Over the last two years, intelligence organizations and analysts failed to anticipate critical events in the Middle East that would roil the region .  The sudden collapse of the Assad regime and the opening of a new chapter in Syria’s conflict-ridden story is the latest in a fraught period that has seen an of escalation of tensions in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.  What explains the Assad regim...

More than a year into the Israel-Hamas war, the Middle East remains mired in conflict. The war in Gaza drags on with no end in sight; the West Bank continues to seethe; the collapse of the Assad regime has activated Israeli forces along the Syrian border; and while a cease-fire deal has calmed the Israel-Lebanon border, the possibility of a serious escalation between Israel and Iran remains all to...

Beyond Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, the Biden administration has faced significant international challenges over the president’s four years in office.  President Biden and his team have contended with a range of issues including strategic competition, growing threats to democracies, climate change, critical minerals supply chains, and shaping the trans...