Carnegie Connects

The United States took unprecedented action, striking three nuclear sites on June 22, following an ongoing campaign of Israeli attacks on Iranian leadership, nuclear, and energy targets. Iran responded to Israel with a barrage of ballistic missile strikes, but following the latest U.S. bombing, Tehran attacked with a reportedly well-telegraphed symbolic strike on American assets in Qatar.   For no...

A tenuous U.S. brokered cease-fire seems to be holding. But the challenge of converting it into a more enduring cessation of hostilities, let alone a political agreement to address the Iranian nuclear program, remain formidable. Is Iran interested in a deal on the nuclear issue in the aftermath of Israeli and U.S. strikes? What are the United States’ objectives in the period ahead and do they alig...

Israel’s surprise attacks last week against Iranian leadership targets, nuclear and military facilities, and Iran’s retaliation with ballistic missiles, have pushed the Israeli-Iranian conflict into unknown territory. Unlike the confrontations of April and October of 2024, this new phase is deadlier and shows no signs of abating.  What are Israel’s and Iran’s objectives? Can Israel destroy Iran’s...

Corruption, illicit foreign bribery schemes, and family members trading on presidential reputations for self-enrichment have surrounded the American political system for years. But the Trump presidency has embarked on an unprecedented scale of self-dealing out in the open, muddying the line between the national interest and those of the Trump family’s business enterprises. At the same time, the ad...

While the Trump administration was eager to jettison the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal in its first term, it now seems serious about negotiating another agreement in its second. And Iran, though wary of that seriousness and fearful of U.S. military action, appears willing to give negotiations a chance.    What are the prospects for success and the appetite for meaningful engagement with Iran? How wo...

Three months into his presidency, Donald Trump has embarked on an unprecedented effort to aggrandize executive power and extend his reach over the judiciary, Congress, the media, and even American culture and society. Perhaps the most alarming aspect has been his battle with the judiciary. The president has called for the impeachment of a federal judge; his executive orders have challenged, if not...

China is top of mind for all these days, including U.S. officials. Whether it's because of military exercises against Taiwan, a trade war with the United States, or China's efforts to block a deal on Tik Tok, getting tough on Beijing seems to be the order of the day. But are we getting China right? Are agreements between the United States and China on core interests possible? Or is the current sta...

In recent days, the Netanyahu government has doubled down on its efforts to consolidate its control and ramp up its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Following the firing of the former director of Shin Bet, an unprecedented decision in Israel’s history, the government has begun the more complicated process of terminating the attorney general, as well as changing the process by which judges...

Does public opinion matter in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Do leaders pay attention to the changing views of their respective constituencies? Each situation presents unique challenges for analysts and scholars trying to answer these questions. And those challenges have grown exponentially more complicated in the wake of October 7, 2023, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.   How have Israeli and...

All Presidents, Jonathan Alter wrote, are blind dates. Donald Trump may be the first who isn’t. Political analysts and historians not only have Trump’s first term to gauge his temperament and policies, but the four years preceding the 2024 elections, where he previewed his agenda for his second non-consecutive term. Even with that foreshadowing, Trump has crashed through traditional norms and conv...

As President Trump pursues his “America First” foreign policy agenda, much of the world is left wondering about what role the United States will now play in global affairs and the stark contrast of this administration from those that came before. Writing in Foreign Affairs in October 2023,  Jake Sullivan, then the National Security Adviser to President Joe Biden, asserted that the “essence of Pres...

“The outcome of the American election will have huge implications both for American institutions and for the world,” Francis Fukuyama  wrote  in September of last year. Just a few weeks into his second term, with a slew of executive orders and controversial appointments, President Donald Trump seems determined to refashion the fabric of American politics and society with the aim of aggrandizing pr...

Three years into Russia’s war against Ukraine, two undeniable realities appear to mark its future. Russian President Vladimir Putin believes time is on his side, and ongoing political changes in Washington are stirring worries that Ukraine can no longer count on sustained levels of military, economic and political assistance.  The Kremlin is not deviating from its ultimate goal of making Ukraine u...

Over the last two years, intelligence organizations and analysts failed to anticipate critical events in the Middle East that would roil the region .  The sudden collapse of the Assad regime and the opening of a new chapter in Syria’s conflict-ridden story is the latest in a fraught period that has seen an of escalation of tensions in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.  What explains the Assad regim...

More than a year into the Israel-Hamas war, the Middle East remains mired in conflict. The war in Gaza drags on with no end in sight; the West Bank continues to seethe; the collapse of the Assad regime has activated Israeli forces along the Syrian border; and while a cease-fire deal has calmed the Israel-Lebanon border, the possibility of a serious escalation between Israel and Iran remains all to...

Beyond Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, the Biden administration has faced significant international challenges over the president’s four years in office.  President Biden and his team have contended with a range of issues including strategic competition, growing threats to democracies, climate change, critical minerals supply chains, and shaping the trans...

With no shortage of conflicts in today’s world, journalists covering war zones provide indispensable reporting and analysis, often at great personal risk. Few war correspondents have more experience covering conflict than CNN’S Clarissa Ward, who has covered conflicts from Afghanistan to Ukraine, to Syria and Gaza, reporting from the world’s hot spots providing first-hand accounts of violent confl...

Elections have consequences. President-elect Donald Trump’s victory carries implications for America’s governance and role in the world that are uncertain, transformative, and potentially dangerous to American democracy. What explains his election? Does it presage a genuine political realignment? What are the consequences of Republican control of the White House, Senate, and potentially the House?...

Ongoing conflicts between Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are likely to define much of the Middle East for the foreseeable future. Israel may have escalation dominance, but this will not necessarily bring about security, let alone the political accords required to bring greater stability to the region. Most serious is the new reality created by Iranian and Israeli strikes directly on one another...

Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon has broken a status quo that could carry potentially momentous consequences for a country and a region already marked by a year of conflict. Critical questions loom. What are Israel’s military objectives in the south and can they be achieved? Has the weakening of Hezbollah shifted Lebanon’s internal power balance and created opportunities for...

During the past two weeks, the possibility of a major Middle East multi-front war has increased significantly. Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah and Iran’s launching of ballistic missiles against Israel has created the potential of an escalatory ladder that both Iran and Israel might climb with dangerous consequences. Iran’s role and what they do next will be decisive.   Join Aaron David Miller...

As Lebanon was rocked by two days of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies directed at Hezbollah’s communications network, killing dozens and injuring thousands, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have risen to new heights.  In a fiery speech, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed revenge.     How has this latest escalation impacted Lebanon’s internal politics? What are Hezbollah’s options in...

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has added a new dynamic to an otherwise predictable grinding war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine. The war has now dragged on for the better part of three years, with neither Moscow nor Kyiv able to achieve their territorial objectives. Nor are there any prospects for serious negotiations that might pause or end the war.  Are there any developments on the battlefie...

In a recent poll, two-thirds of American adults said they were concerned that “extremists” will commit acts of violence following the 2024 election if they are unhappy with the results. This should come as no surprise. Earlier this year the U.S. Department of Homeland Security warned that among other threats the 2024 election cycle will be a  “ key event for possible violence .” How real is that t...

The Middle East continues to boil. Following the Hezbollah rocket strike on a Druze town in the Golan Heights killing a dozen children, Israel targeted a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Two days later, the head of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed presumably by Israel in a missile strike in Tehran while attending the inauguration of the Iranian President....