Bulls, Bears & BS

Numerous asset classes are indicating the same outcome: a Trump 2nd Term begins in early 2025. This week our host, Graham Summers, MBA delves into what he is seeing in the markets, how the markets are anticipating a Trump 2nd term, and what this means for stocks going forward. If you're looking for specific investment ideas to profit from this, we  just published a webinar What Trump's 2...

The stock market is sending very clear signals that it anticipates President Trump will win a second term on November 5th. This will have a seismic effect on asset prices. This week, our host Graham Summers, MBA outlines some of the big picture for what a Trump win means for the markets. For those of you who are looking to get detailed investment analysis on what a Trump win will mean for the mark...

The Fed, European Central Bank and The People's Bank of China are now all easing monetary conditions. This is having a seismic effect on the financial system, including risk assets such as stocks.  This combined with the U.S. running its largest deficit outside of WWII is resulting in a strong bull market driven by the "reflation trade." This week our host Graham Summers, MBA delves...

The jobs numbers for September came in piping hot. Unfortunately some ~90,000 those 254,000 jobs were created in government spreadsheet, NOT the real economy. This deceit, regardless of its intentions, has resulted in a major shift in expectations of the Fed's future rate cuts. This week, our host Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA delves into the implications of this for risk assets...

China has announced its first major stimulus program in two years, with the goal of driving Chinese equities higher. This combined with the U.S. Federal Reserve easing monetary conditions means that the two largest economies in the world are now in easing mode. This will ignite the reflation trade. This week, our host Graham Summers, MBA delves into the details of the reflation trade, outlining wh...

The Fed cut rates by 0.5% last week. Many commentators are seeing this as a signal that the economy is in recession. We completely disagree. In this week's episode, Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA outlines why this time "is different" and what it means for risk assets, particularly stocks. Graham also provides a macro framework for the next 18 months, as well as where he...

Following the "growth scare" of late July/ early August, stocks have discounted an economy that will keep growing and a Fed that is about to start cutting rates. Today, the S&P 500 is at all-time highs with the Fed expected to cut rates by at least 0.25% at 2PM EST. However, with the Presidential election looming and the Fed already in the crosshairs for former President Trump, a lot...

The Sahm Rule has  triggered, igniting concerns that a recession has arrived. But is this just another false positive in the current unusual business cycle... or is the economy actually rolling over? Moreover, are stocks about to crater into a prolonged bear market... or is this an opportunity to buy the dip We address all of these issues in this week's episode. Support the show Thanks for li...

Inflation came in cooler than expected this week. This has opened the door to the Fed cutting rates sooner than expected as rates are at 5.5% while inflation is now at 3%. This is extremely bullish for stocks as even lagging indices (the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000) are finally catching a bid. In simple terms, there is NOTHING bearish in the stock market right now. And our cl...

Stocks have closed at new all-time highs in four of the last five weeks. But the economic data has taken a sharp turn for the worse. Estimated GDP growth for the second quarter cratered from 3% down to 1.5% in the last two weeks. And the unemployment rate is now ticking higher, suggesting a potential Sahm Rule Trigger which would mean a recession has arrived. Is this the real deal... or is it just...

Stocks just hit new all-time highs, but I anticipate a growth scare to trigger a MAJOR buying opportunity within the next six weeks. One of the most accurate predictors of a recession is the Sahm Rule. And I believe we'll get darn close to a Sahm Rule trigger sometime before August 10th. When this happens, the investment world will panic, pushing stocks down possibly as low as 4,900 on the S&...

Is a recession about to unfold, crushing stocks? The calls for a recession are growing by the week. However, for those focused on making money from the markets, it's important to note that things are in fact different this time: the pandemic and subsequent monetary/fiscal interventions have badly warped the economic data in the U.S.  As a result of this, a number of metrics that have previous...

The market is sending us clear signals that is it focused on the inflation data, which is trending down. This, combined with a drop in Treasury yields, is signaling disinflation. What does this mean for stocks going forward? And are the recessionary signals people are so worked up about on social media REALLY worth paying attention to? We cover all of this in this week's episode. If you'...

The macro picture is shifting from higher growth and inflation to lower growth and disinflation. This will benefit certain key sectors and open the door to additional profits for those who play this right. However, in the big picture, stocks remain in "risk on" as there are ZERO red flags or signals of systemic risk in the financial system today. Don't overthink it, profit from it!...

This week we dive into the probabilities aspect of investing... and why you should NEVER bet the farm on a crash. We also explore AI from a technological and historical framework using the build out of the Internet in the late '90s as a reference point. If you're interested in making money from the markets... and navigating AI from an investment perspective, you NEED to hear this. Suppor...

This week we are obliterating some of the myths surrounding the economy and stock market. If you've ever wondered why the economic data doesn't "feel" right... or why stocks go up despite BAD news... or what REALLY matters when it comes to making money from the stock market,  this episode is for you. Oh, and we also break down AI and its true relevance as far as the markets are...

Bulls Bear and BS is back. I am beyond thrilled to announce that my new book Into the Abyss: Life After the Bubble is now available to purchase at Amazon. You can purchase it by CLICKING HERE. This book is the sequel to my 2017 best-seller The Everything Bubble. It is divided into two sections ( The Everything Bubble Has Burst and How to Invest After the Bubble ). If you're looking for specif...

The Fed has abandoned its "higher for longer" narrative and is now talking about cutting rates three if not four times in 2024.  There are several reasons for the Fed to do this. Some are HIGHLY questionable. Others are valid. But regardless the Fed Pivot will have a dramatic effect on risk assets going forward. This week we delve into all of this as well as a history of Fed intervention...

Bonds are telling us that the Fed is done raising rates. The yield on the 2-Year U.S. Treasury peaked in early October and has since fallen from 5.2% to 4.8%. Interest rates are at 5.5%, so the bond market is not only telling us that the Fed is done raising rates, but that the Fed will have cut rates by two or three times in the next two years. This has ignited one of the best single month returns...

Bonds continue to break down in anticipation of the U.S. Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement due out next week. We are now getting to the point at which a panic could hit bonds, which would trigger an aggressive drop in stocks. This week we delve into these issues as well as what's happening in gold and oil. Support the show Thanks for listening! Follow us on Twitter and Instagra...

War has broken out in the Middle East... and everyone has an "expert" opinion on it. We're staying in our lane this week and focusing on the markets, specifically, what bonds are telling us about the potential for a full-scale crisis. We also break down the framework we've developed for trading the markets over the last 20 years... and why it works as opposed to the "rules...

Treasury yields continue to spike. Regional banks are breaking down. Bank of America is back at the March 2023 lows.  Is a bank crisis about to hit? And what does this mean for the broader stock market. Support the show Thanks for listening! Follow us on Twitter and Instagram.

This week, Graham Summers, MBA delves into the stock market framework he's developed over the last 20 years of its career. He also explains why stocks are finally dropping, where this leg down will end, and what to do about it. Support the show Thanks for listening! Follow us on Twitter and Instagram.

Bonds yields are back at the highs, but stocks are refusing to break down. This week we delve into why this is happening, as well as why the U.S. economy refuses to enter a recession despite the fact inflation remains a major problem.  We also spend time analyzing the stock market on a relative basis to bonds and cash, as well as our thoughts on oil and gold. Support the show Thanks for listening!...

Stocks have broken out to new highs, but there are signs that inflation, as measured by CPI might in fact be bottoming right now.  Moreover, the bond market is finally waking up to the fact the Fed will need to keep rates higher for longer, which will ultimately have a profound impact on asset prices going forward. This week we delve into all of these issues as well as what they mean for the marke...