Basis Points

When looking at the money and bond markets, they almost seem to be saying to the Federal Reserve (Fed), “Would you please cut rates already?” Against this backdrop, we continue to advocate for a solution designed to help fixed income investors navigate the waters that loom ahead without making a high conviction bet on where rates are headed: the barbell strategy.

After a Federal Reserve meeting like the one last week, it’s always prudent to take a step back and let the dust settle. Kevin Flanagan analyzes the U.S. Treasury (UST) 10-Year yield and poses the question: Where do we go from here?

To watch the money and bond markets of late, there is one development that stands out quite clearly: the Federal Reserve has to cut interest rates. Kevin Flanagan explains why the markets think trade uncertainty plus economic weakness might just equal three rate cuts in the future.

Last week, we heard a narrative regarding the movement in the stock and bond markets—specifically, that the decline in U.S. equities resulted from the drop in the U.S. Treasury 10-Year yield. Typically, the bond market reacts to developments in the stock market, not the other way around. Kevin Flanagan investigates a possible shift in the paradigm.

The current landscape for the fixed income arena can be defined by two key factors: the yield curve and household cash positions. These two forces have placed a premium on short-term government investments in bond-land. Instead of going into products that are fixed in nature, Kevin Flanagan examines why investors should look to floating rate strategies instead.

It’s time for your final in “Curve”ology 101. Does the UST 3-Month/10-Year curve signal an upcoming recession? Kevin Flanagan explains.

While the money and bond markets continue to debate when, not if, the first rate cut is coming, the Fed has already taken its foot off the brake in a rather visible fashion. Kevin Flanagan explains why the U.S. economy should no longer be confronted by Fed headwinds.

It’s hard to say where interest rates are headed in this uncertain landscape. Kevin Flanagan offers fixed income investors a strategic solution designed to help navigate the choppy waters that could potentially loom ahead without making a “high-conviction bet” on where rates are headed.

Certainly, no one can dispute that the shift in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook has been the most noteworthy development that has occurred in the money and bond markets thus far in 2019. So, while the debate for 2019 and 2020 seems to have gravitated to when the Fed will actually cut rates, I offer a different take. What if the FOMC goes on a “policy sabbatical” of sorts, and j...

With another April 15 tax date come and gone, Kevin Flanagan asks: How did individual filers make out for the 2019 season versus a year ago?

If bond investors have learned anything this year, it is that the “winds of change” can blow in dramatically different directions regarding monetary policy. Kevin Flanagan discusses how market sentiment has shifted from where we were only four months ago.

It’s all about the data, with the jobs report being front and center. But what happens when the data doesn’t fit into the Treasury market’s narrative? Kevin Flanagan discusses.

After the March Fed meeting, no more rate hikes appeared to be in the offing for 2019, so naturally, the only place to go from there would be rate cuts. Kevin Flanagan analyzes the Treasury yields that look more like the Fed already cut rates but forgot to tell anyone.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve went inverted last week for the 1st time since 2007. Certainly, it is a noteworthy development in bond-land. Kevin Flanagan provides some quick insights on what this means for your fixed income portfolio.

Is the Federal Reserve leaving March by “going out like a lamb?” Kevin Flanagan discusses the outcome of this week’s FOMC meeting.

There’s nothing like a paltry 20,000 gain in total nonfarm payrolls to get market participants talking. That is exactly what happened when the February jobs report was released last week. Kevin Flanagan debates whether this is the beginning of a new, weaker trend or is it merely like ‘stubbing your toe’?