Basis Points

The pandemic and related economic shutdowns required unprecedented fiscal action, but even before 2020, expanding U.S. budget deficits had become the norm. With fiscal year 2020 now officially in the books, Kevin Flanagan discusses how things fared.

One potential outcome following the upcoming election is a “blue wave,” which could lead to slowed economic growth. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan explains how fixed income investors can prepare for such an outcome.

One potential outcome of the 2020 Election is a Democrat sweep, or the “blue wave,” whereby the presidency and both houses of Congress would be controlled by the Democratic Party. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan provides a solution for investors seeking to prepare their fixed income portfolio for the possibility of the “blue wave.”

Last Friday was the final jobs report before the 2020 election. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan provides fixed income investors with a quick rundown of the key takeaways from the report.

While March seems like a long time ago, the repercussions of perhaps the worst two-week period in the U.S. high-yield (HY) arena is now showing through some five to six months later. Despite this, Kevin Flanagan makes the case there is relative value in the U.S. HY market, as long as you screen for quality.

After the end of 2019, the U.S. economy went straight into negative territory, as the pandemic-related shutdowns produced unprecedented contractions in activity. Most market participants have been of the mindset that the economy would not return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2021. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses whether the economy can recover sooner than expected.

The Federal Reserve released its new policy framework late last month in connection with Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, so, unsurprisingly, the September FOMC meeting did not generate any fresh headlines. But there is one key question following today’s Fed meeting that Kevin Flanagan seeks to answer: how will the Fed actually implement this new approach?

The headlines surrounding the August Employment Situation report seemed to focus on the moderating pace of new hiring activity. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan explains why he believes the more notable story was the sizeable drop in the unemployment rate and the impact on the fixed income market.

At last week’s Jackson Hole conference, Chairman Powell announced a noteworthy shift in how monetary policy is now going to be delivered. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan explains the Fed’s decision to let the economy run “hot, hot, hot” to achieve its average inflation goal over time.

Chairman Powell is scheduled to take center stage at the annual Jackson Hole conference. The focus will be on what, if any, adjustments can be expected with respect to inflation targets and the Fed’s balance sheet. Kevin Flanagan discusses the possible outcomes on this week’s podcast.

As we continue to be bombarded with headlines and news stories on a 24-7 basis, sometimes it is difficult to know what to focus on in terms of economic numbers. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses which reports investors should look to as economic indicators in the current investment landscape.

As we enter mid-August and the end of summer, Kevin Flanagan takes a step back and provides an analysis on the current state of affairs in the fixed income arena.

When the pandemic began to shut down global economies earlier this year, there were dire forecasts for what it would mean for economic activity. Unfortunately, the prognostications proved to be accurate, and Q2 produced record-breaking contractions in GDP in both the U.S. and eurozone. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan attempts to answer the natural question: What comes next?

The Federal Reserve’s current easing cycle began exactly a year ago. One year later, there is a zero interest rate policy with a revamped quantitative easing policy to ward off another potential financial crisis. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan explains why, against this backdrop, it should come as no surprise the Fed decided to take a bit of a summer vacation at this July FOMC gathering.

The focus of money and bond markets has been on the 3-month LIBOR–OIS spread. On this week's podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the latest moves in the fixed income space and why we may not be out of the woods yet.

The economy is two for two in terms of a better-than-expected U.S. jobs reports. Just like last month, the June numbers exceeded expectations. Kevin Flanagan discusses.

When following rate trends here in the U.S., it’s easy to focus only on domestic factors. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses some interesting developments overseas that have been largely ignored in market commentary, encouraging investors to start thinking globally.

While an interest rate-hedging angle for bond portfolio is not top of mind for investors right now, maybe it should be. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan explains why the time to consider rate protection is when rates are low.

As investors sort through the aftermath of the recent bond market turmoil, there have been questions around potential value and income opportunities in the fixed income space. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan explains why he has high hopes for the U.S. high-yield corporate bond sector.

It came as no surprise that the Federal Reserve left monetary policy right where it is at the June FOMC meeting. Kevin Flanagan discusses how fixed income investors should position their portfolios.

There has been an increasing amount of chatter regarding whether the Federal Reserve would consider pushing the Fed Funds rate into negative territory. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses this possibility and its impact on the economy.

So far in 2020, fixed income ETF inflows have been greater than flows into U.S. equities, commodities or currency. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses this noteworthy feat.

All eyes were on Friday’s jobs report to see just how bad it really was. As expected, it was bad, the worst report of our lifetime, as a matter of fact. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan provides a quick rundown of the numbers and outlines what to expect next.

Recently, it has been argued the Fed’s balance sheet altered the historical relationship between inverted yield curves and recessions. Given the Fed’s recent quantitative easing program, Kevin Flanagan makes the argument that the curve’s predictive value may have been permanently altered.

Unlike other Federal Reserve related news since the beginning of March, the April FOMC meeting did not provide any groundbreaking headlines. That being said, the Fed continued to make it abundantly clear they stand “at the ready,” should the need arise. Kevin Flanagan discusses.