Basis Points

As we enter mid-August and the end of summer, Kevin Flanagan takes a step back and provides an analysis on the current state of affairs in the fixed income arena.

When the pandemic began to shut down global economies earlier this year, there were dire forecasts for what it would mean for economic activity. Unfortunately, the prognostications proved to be accurate, and Q2 produced record-breaking contractions in GDP in both the U.S. and eurozone. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan attempts to answer the natural question: What comes next?

The Federal Reserve’s current easing cycle began exactly a year ago. One year later, there is a zero interest rate policy with a revamped quantitative easing policy to ward off another potential financial crisis. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan explains why, against this backdrop, it should come as no surprise the Fed decided to take a bit of a summer vacation at this July FOMC gathering.

The focus of money and bond markets has been on the 3-month LIBOR–OIS spread. On this week's podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the latest moves in the fixed income space and why we may not be out of the woods yet.

The economy is two for two in terms of a better-than-expected U.S. jobs reports. Just like last month, the June numbers exceeded expectations. Kevin Flanagan discusses.

When following rate trends here in the U.S., it’s easy to focus only on domestic factors. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses some interesting developments overseas that have been largely ignored in market commentary, encouraging investors to start thinking globally.

While an interest rate-hedging angle for bond portfolio is not top of mind for investors right now, maybe it should be. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan explains why the time to consider rate protection is when rates are low.

As investors sort through the aftermath of the recent bond market turmoil, there have been questions around potential value and income opportunities in the fixed income space. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan explains why he has high hopes for the U.S. high-yield corporate bond sector.

It came as no surprise that the Federal Reserve left monetary policy right where it is at the June FOMC meeting. Kevin Flanagan discusses how fixed income investors should position their portfolios.

There has been an increasing amount of chatter regarding whether the Federal Reserve would consider pushing the Fed Funds rate into negative territory. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses this possibility and its impact on the economy.

So far in 2020, fixed income ETF inflows have been greater than flows into U.S. equities, commodities or currency. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses this noteworthy feat.

All eyes were on Friday’s jobs report to see just how bad it really was. As expected, it was bad, the worst report of our lifetime, as a matter of fact. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan provides a quick rundown of the numbers and outlines what to expect next.

Recently, it has been argued the Fed’s balance sheet altered the historical relationship between inverted yield curves and recessions. Given the Fed’s recent quantitative easing program, Kevin Flanagan makes the argument that the curve’s predictive value may have been permanently altered.

Unlike other Federal Reserve related news since the beginning of March, the April FOMC meeting did not provide any groundbreaking headlines. That being said, the Fed continued to make it abundantly clear they stand “at the ready,” should the need arise. Kevin Flanagan discusses.

With the alphabet soup of facilities that have all been announced by the Fed over the last month, Kevin Flanagan narrows down the scope and focuses in on the programs that involve the financial markets more directly. In other words, the Fed is going bond buying.

Over the last month, the combination of U.S. monetary and fiscal support has not only come at breakneck speed, but perhaps more importantly, at almost unimaginable amounts just a few months ago. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan provides a solution for fixed income investors that might be feeling a bit dazed and confused.

Recently, the overarching question for fixed income investors has been whether current valuations represent a renewed buying opportunity for the U.S. investment-grade and high-yield corporate arena. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan answers the more pertinent query: what’s in the price?

Both the Fed and the U.S. federal government provided unprecedented responses to the market turmoil last week. The natural question on investors’ minds is whether the time has come to begin positioning their fixed income portfolios for what comes next. On this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan explains why one of the most noteworthy items to consider is your interest rate profile.

The current money and bond market environment has afforded investors the opportunity to review their fixed income asset allocations. So, what are fixed income investors to do? Kevin Flanagan discusses.

The Fed has responded yet again, but this time around, the policy makers made sure their message was heard loud and clear around the globe. Kevin Flanagan discusses.

What if a U.S. jobs report came out and nobody cared? This is the case in the current investment universe that we are now confronted with. In what normally would have been considered a bond-market unfriendly number, it ultimately didn’t matter. Kevin Flanagan discusses.

In this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan provides another update on the coronavirus from a bond market perspective.

Looking at the U.S. Treasury market’s reaction to the coronavirus news, there was one by-product that captured the lion’s share of the headlines: the yield curve inverts again! Kevin Flanagan discusses what this recent inversion means for the fixed income market.

With impeachment and State of the Union fireworks receding in the background, a fixed income strategist’s dream would be to return the focus to the normal course of business that emanates out of Washington, D.C. In this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the latest economic data, breaking down the 2020 January jobs report.

This year has gotten off to an unusual start in the financial markets. Typically, the focus would be on the Fed and/or economic developments, but unfortunately the coronavirus has taken center stage. In this week’s podcast, Kevin Flanagan offers insights from a bond market perspective, using the SARS outbreak of November 2002 to July 2003 as a comparative event.