Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

GPT-5 was the most advanced AI when it was released, but most people were disappointed. Why?  In this episode, I unpack the two key paradoxes that shape how we judge new technology: shifting goalposts and negative space. Timestamps :  (0:00) The reaction to GPT-5  (0:40) First paradox  (2:55) Second paradox  (5:29) Why this matters  Dig deeper : https://www.exponentialview.co/p/the-paradox-of-gpt-...

Can AI stocks beat Big Tech? In this episode, I discuss OpenAI and its decision to expand a secondary share sale that lets insiders sell about $10.3 billion of stock at roughly a $500 billion valuation. Although skeptical at first, the calculations reveal there is a path for OpenAI to deliver outsized returns. I cover: (0:00) The $500B question  (01:11) Why the Nasdaq Index is the benchmark  (03:3...

This is the single most important paper to come out in tech in recent weeks. Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen investigated whether generative AI is leading to job losses in roles most exposed to AI – and how these effects differ by age and the way AI is used. In this episode, I break down these results and their implications.  I covered:  (01:17) Key finding  (03:32) What’s going on...

Nick Thompson, CEO of The Atlantic, led one of the first major content licensing deals with OpenAI in 2024. In this conversation, he joins Azeem to unpack how AI is transforming media – and what that means for every business navigating the shifting economics of attention, trust, and discovery.  We cover:  (01:49) Journalism’s four horsemen  (5:33) The collapse of search  (9:07) Cloudflare’s counte...

At the start of the year, I made seven predictions about how 2025 would unfold. Six months in, it's time to mark my own work. From AI capability breakthroughs to autonomous vehicles, climate extremes to workforce transformation, I examine what I got right, what I missed, and why the 2027-2028 period will be when vertical AI hits the real economy in force. In this episode you’ll hear: The AI wall t...

In this episode, I reflect on a whirlwind three-day visit to China - my first in over 20 years. And what I saw was remarkable. The infrastructure puts most of the West to shame. The AI isn't just hype - it's working at serious scale. And the electric vehicles? They're about to steamroll the global auto industry. Here's what really struck me during my whirlwind trip to Beijing and beyond. In this e...

Broadcasting live from Paris, I tackle three massive technology stories that are reshaping our digital future. From Apple's stunning interface redesign to the collapse of traditional search advertising, and Sam Altman's vision of an AI singularity that's already begun - this episode captures the tectonic shifts happening in tech right now. I cover: (1:32) WWDC 2025:  Apple’s AI challenges and new...

This week, I'm speaking with Kevin Weil, Chief Product Officer at OpenAI, who is steering product development at what might be the world's most important company right now. We talk about: (00:00) Episode trailer (01:37) OpenAI's latest launches (03:43) What it's like being CPO of OpenAI (04:34) How AI will reshape our lives (07:23) How young people use AI differently (09:29) Addressing fears about...

Economist and polymath Tyler Cowen challenges Silicon Valley's optimistic projections about AI-driven economic growth. We explore what could slow AI's economic impact, despite its remarkable capabilities – and where humans find the new normal amidst major shifts. Timestamps:  (00:00) Episode trailer  (01:47)  The problem with Silicon Valley's AI-driven growth projections  (06:02) The institutional...

Thomas Dohmke, CEO of GitHub, joins Azeem to explore how AI is fundamentally transforming software development. In this episode you'll hear:  (01:50) What’s left for developers in the age of AI?  (04:54) How GitHub Copilot unlocks flow state  (07:09) Three big shifts in how engineers work today  (10:47) Is software development art or assembly line?  (15:26) Why developers are climbing the abstract...

Aaron Levie, CEO & co-founder of Box, joins Azeem Azhar to explore how an “AI-first” mindset is reshaping every layer of Box – from product road-maps to pricing – and what that teaches the rest of us about building faster, smarter organisations. Timestamps: (00:00) Episode trailer (02:04) The "lump of labor fallacy" in sci-fi books (07:37) When individual productivity gains don’t translate to team...

Lennart Heim, a researcher and information scientist at RAND Corporation, joins Azeem Azhar to unpack a provocative claim: China is catching up with US AI capabilities, but it doesn't matter.  Timestamps:  (00:00) Episode trailer  (01:19) Lennart’s core thesis  (03:26)   Why compute matters so much  (07:31)  The investment split between model R&D and model execution  (11:18)  How test-time compute...

Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy, joins Azeem to discuss the Iberian blackout and how we can create a more stable, flexible, and resilient energy grid for the future. This conversation digs into grid technology, market structures, and the real opportunities of the clean energy transition.  (00:00) Episode trailer  (01:38)  What caused the Iberian blackout?  (04:55)  Managing load in traditional...

Physicist and entrepreneur Steve Hsu, whose startup Superfocus tackles hallucination problems in large language models, joins Azeem to discuss AI agents, hallucination challenges and what happens when technology meets labor markets.  They discuss:  ( 01:31 ) The deeper shift that Superfocus represents  ( 07:00 )  Will models overcome hallucination?  ( 10:15 )  AI Agents can replace 80-90% of call...

Sir Niall Ferguson, renowned historian and Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, joins Azeem Azhar to discuss the evolving relationship between the U.S. and China, Trump's foreign policy doctrine, and what the new global economic and security order might look like.  ( 00:00 )  What most analysts are missing about Trump  ( 05:43 )  The win-win outcome in Europe–U.S relations  ( 11...

In this episode, Azeem Azhar speaks with Ryan Petersen, CEO and founder of logistics platform Flexport, about the current state of global trade amidst escalating tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and technological disruption. Ryan offers unique insights from the frontlines of the US-China trade war and explores how businesses are adapting to a rapidly changing landscape.  (00:00) Episode trailer  (0...

Azeem Azhar welcomes Packy McCormick, founder and investor at Not Boring, to discuss the current tech landscape.  In this episode you'll hear:  (01:50) What Packy got wrong (and right) about Web3  (10:17) The shift to "know thyself and know thyself-nots"  (14:28) Europe just woke up  (18:46) Bits and atoms are cool again  (21:10) London airport shutdown reveals a deeper challenge  (23:32) A new ki...

Anthropic's co-founder and chief scientist Jared Kaplan discusses AI's rapid evolution, the shorter-than-expected timeline to human-level AI, and how Claude's "thinking time" feature represents a new frontier in AI reasoning capabilities. In this episode you'll hear: Why Jared believes human-level AI is now likely to arrive in 2-3 years instead of by 2030 How AI models are developing the ability t...

Kevin Kelly is a co-founder of Wired Magazine and a renowned author and futurist.  Decades ago, Kevin predicted much of today's technological and cultural landscape. In this discussion, he presents his new bold vision for what’s coming next: The Handoff to Bots. In this episode, you’ll hear: Why declining populations will radically reshape economies What a bot-to-bot economy could look and feel li...

Kai-Fu Lee joins me to discuss AI in 2025. Kai-Fu is a storied AI researcher, investor, inventor and entrepreneur based in Taiwan. As one of the leading AI experts based in Asia, I wanted to get his take on this particular market. Key insights: Kai-Fu noted that unlike the singular “ChatGPT moment” that stunned Western audiences, the Chinese market encountered generative AI in a more “incremental...

Nathan Benaich, Founder and General Partner of Air Street Capital, joins me to discuss AI in 2025. From runaway consumer adoption to evolving enterprise moats, from still-elusive AI-driven drug breakthroughs to the renewed vigour in robotics, several core themes stood out. 1. Frontier models & AI at scale In 2024, we witnessed the astonishing growth of frontier models and their deployment on a mas...

Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis and one of my go-to experts on semiconductors and data center infrastructure joins me to discuss AI in 2025. Several key themes emerged about where AI might be headed in 2025: 1/ Big Tech’s accelerating CapEx and market adjustments The hyperscalers are racing ahead in capital expenditure, with Microsoft’s annual outlay likely to surpass $80 billion (up from aro...

As we race towards a future powered by AI and data centres, how will the insatiable demand for energy impact the environment? With the richest companies ploughing billions into energy generation, might there be some unexpected upsides for the climate transition? And can exponential technologies address the climate crisis on a finite planet?  Cleaning Up host Michael Liebreich sits down with Azeem...

Artificial Intelligence is on every business leader’s agenda. How do we make sense of the fast-moving new developments in AI over the past year? Azeem Azhar returns to bring clarity to leaders who face a complicated information landscape. This week, Azeem speaks with Richard Socher , CEO and founder of You.com, an AI chatbot search engine at the forefront of truthful and verifiable AI. They explor...

As 2024 begins, leaders are facing increasing uncertainty and a host of difficult decisions. Azeem Azhar returns to bring clarity amid a complicated information landscape, with his analysis of 12 core themes that will shape the year ahead, including AI adoption, geopolitics, decentralization, the energy transition, and more. The discussion specifically touches on: What will drive widespread corpor...