Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Thanks to everyone who commented on Quests And Requests . There was a predictable failure mode: lots of people said "I have relevant expertise and would be willing to help with #X", and then those comments just sat there. Many fewer people said "I'm going to be team lead on #X and start contacting everyone else who was interested". In case it's not clear: I'm not planning on "picking" people to le...

[previously in series: 2016 , 2020 ; expansion of this ] MODERATOR: Hello, and welcome to the third Republican primary debate. To shore up declining voter interest, we've decided to make things more interesting tonight. In this first round, each candidate will have to avoid using a specific letter of the alphabet in their answer. If they slip up, they forfeit their remaining time, and the next can...

[original post: My Left Kidney ] 1: Comments From People Who Are Against This Sort Of Thing 2: …From Other People Who Have Donated Kidneys 3: …From People Who Have Received Kidneys 4: …About Opt-Out Organ Donation 5: …On Radiation Risk 6: …About Rejections 7: …On Polls About Who Would Donate 8: …On Artificial Organs 9: Other Comments https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on...

Projects that need incubating I'll be starting a new round of ACX Grants sometime soon. I can't guarantee I'll fund all these projects - some of them are more like vanity projects than truly effective. But I might fund some of them, and others might be doable without funding. So if you're feeling left out and want a cause to devote your life to, here are some extras. https://www.astralcodexten.com...

Review of Rory Carroll's "Comandante" [previously in series: Erdogan , Modi , Orban , Xi , Putin ] I. All dictators get their start by discovering some loophole in the democratic process. Xi realized that control of corruption investigations let him imprison anyone he wanted. Erdogan realized that EU accession talks provided the perfect cover to retool Turkish institutions in his own image. https:...

Manifest || Manifold. Love || Eyeless in Gaza Last month, the Lighthaven convention center in Berkeley hosted Manifest, the first conference for prediction market enthusiasts. By now this has already been covered elsewhere, including in a great article by the New York Times , but here are some particular highlights: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-103023  

A person has two kidneys; one advises him to do good and one advises him to do evil. And it stands to reason that the one advising him to do good is to his right and the one that advises him to do evil is to his left. — Talmud (Berakhot 61a) I. As I left the Uber, I saw with horror the growing wet spot around my crotch. "It's not urine!", I almost blurted to the driver, before considering that 1)...

Last March we (ACX and Manifold Markets ) did a test run of an impact market , a novel way of running charitable grants. You can read the details at the links, but it's basically a VC ecosystem for charity: profit-seeking investors fund promising projects and grantmakers buy credit for successes from the investors. To test it out, we promised at least $20,000 in retroactive grants for forecasting-...

Last month, Ben West of the Center for Effective Altruism hosted a debate among long-termists, forecasters, and x-risk activists about pausing AI. Everyone involved thought AI was dangerous and might even destroy the world, so you might expect a pause - maybe even a full stop - would be a no-brainer. It wasn't. Participants couldn't agree on basics of what they meant by "pause", whether it was pos...

In the 1990s, Blanchard and Bogaert proposed  the Fraternal Birth Order Effect (FBOE). Men with more older brothers were more likely to be gay. "The odds of having a gay son increase from approximately 2% for the first born son, to 3% for the second, 5% for the third and so on". https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/how-are-the-gay-younger-brothers  

[Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can't guarantee I will have caught them all by the time you read this.] https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/links-for-september-...

[if this looks familiar to you, see explanation here ] Sometimes scholars go on a search for "the historical Jesus". They start with the Gospels, then subtract everything that seems magical or implausible, then declare whatever's left to be the truth. The Alexander Romance is what happens when you spend a thousand years running this process in reverse. Each generation, you make the story of Alexan...

[original post: Book Review: Elon Musk ] 1: Comments From People With Personal Experience 2: ...Debating Musk's Intelligence 3: ...Debating Musk's Mental Health 4: ...About Tesla 5: ...About The Boring Company 6: ...About X/Twitter 7: ...About Musk's Mars Plan 8: ...Comparing Musk To Other Famous Figures 9: Other Comments 10: Updates https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on...

Thanks to everyone who entered or voted in the book review contest. The winners are: 1st: The Educated Mind , reviewed by Brandon Hendrickson. Brandon is the founder of Science is WEIRD , a sprawling online science course that helps kids fall in love with the world. He's also re-imagining what education can be at his Substack, The Lost Tools of Learning ( losttools.substack.com ). 2nd: On the Marb...

Not the new one, sorry This isn't the new Musk biography everyone's talking about. This is the 2015 Musk biography by Ashlee Vance. I started reading it in July, before I knew there was a new one. It's fine: Musk never changes. He's always been exactly the same person he is now I read the book to try to figure out who that was. Musk is a paradox. He spearheaded the creation of the world's most adv...

Comments On The Solano County City Ecorche writes : The Public's Radio article has a map in it that gives a better idea of the location. It looks like most of the land is closer to Rio Vista and does include a good stretch of riverfront. The land close to Travis is probably intended as industrial park rather than residential https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-last  

If you've read the finalists of this year's book review contest,  vote for your favorite here . Voting will stay open until Wednesday. Thanks to a helpful reader who offered to do the hard work, we're going to try ranked choice voting. You'll choose your first-, second-, and third-favorite book reviews. If your favorite gets eliminated, we'll switch your vote to your second favorite, and so on. If...

Emil Kirkegaard proposes a semi-objective definition of "mental illness" . He's partly responding to me, but I think he mangles my position; he seems to think I admit mental illnesses are "just preferences" but that which preferences are valid vs. diseased can be decided by "what benefits my friends". I mostly don't think mental illnesses are just preferences! I've been really clear on this! But E...

The American people deserve a choice. They deserve a candidate who will reject the failed policies of the past and embrace the failed policies of the future. It is my honor to announce I am throwing my hat into both the Democratic and Republican primaries (to double my chances), with the following platform: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform  

Tech moguls plan new city in Solano County Guardian: Silicon Valley Elites Revealed As Buyers Of $800 Million In Land To Build Utopian City . The specific elites include the Collison brothers, Reid Hoffman, Nat Friedman, Marc Andreessen, and others, led by the mysterious Jan Sramek . The specific land is farmland in Solano County, about an hour's drive northeast of San Francisco. The specific utop...

Finalist #16 in the Book Review Contest To tell the story of the fall of a realm, it's best to start with its rise. More than three thousand years ago, the Shang dynasty ruled the Chinese heartland. They raised a sprawling capital out of the yellow plains, and cast magnificent ritual vessels from bronze. One of the criteria of civilization is writing, and they had the first Chinese writing, incisi...

"Literal Banana" on Carcinization writes Against Automaticity , which they describe as: An explanation of why tricks like priming, nudge, the placebo effect, social contagion, the "emotional inception" model of advertising, most "cognitive biases," and any field with "behavioral" in its name are not real. My summary (as always, read the real thing to keep me honest): for a lot of the '90s and '00s...

Original post: What Can Fetish Research Tell Us About AI? Table Of Contents: 1: Alternative Theories Of Fetishes 2: Comments Including Testable Predictions 3: Comments That Were Very Angry About My Introductory Paragraph 4: Commenters Describing Their Own Fetishes 5: Other Comments https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-fetishes

Superconductor autopsy -- Prediction mutual funds -- Flight delays Sorry guys, LK-99 doesn't work . The prediction markets have dropped from highs in the 40s down to 5 - 10. It's over. What does this tell us about prediction markets? Were they dumb to ever believe at all? Or were they aggregating the evidence effectively, only to update after new evidence came in? I claim they were dumb. Although...

Finalist #15 in the Book Review Contest [ This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I'll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you've read them all, I'll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked ] In which I argue: Why Nations Fail is not a very good bo...