ASEAN Speaks

01:17 - Malaysia Budget 2022 Review 07:09 - Budget implications on credit markets 10:23 - Budget impact on Malaysia equity market 15:06 - Energy prices and FX markets 18:05 - Malaysia aviation sector 22:52 - Thai property sector 25:48 - Mega Lifesciences initiation

Anand Pathmakanthan speaks on the 3Q earnings season to date and how funds flow is rotating. MKE’s energy research team has revised Brent crude assumptions to US$75/bbl for 2022 and discuss scenarios for an energy super cycle. Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore banking sector is flush with liquidity - is loans growth finally back on track?

What are the signposts to watch now that CPO markets have rallied above MYR5000/mt? Monetary Authority of Singapore tightens S$NEER policy band slope earlier than expected. MKE’s Philippines’ banks research team shares their best picks given that loans growth data has troughed with evidence of activity pickup.

Kaushal Ladha briefs on this energy cycle’s supply shock. Key reforms to go green in the 12th Malaysia Plan will also give CPO planters a tailwind for higher pricing power. Vietnam risks falling into a technical recession, is the silver lining in the skies?

China Evergrande (3333 HK) has missed bond interest payments as of last week. Will this event spiral into a contagion? The Fed will officially kick off the asset purchase tapering at the next FOMC meeting in November, Suhaimi Ilias discusses the implications on ASEAN central banks. Thailand’s banking sector turned in strong performances last week on SCB’s restructuring announcement; time to pay at...

Asian governments prefer a dovish fiscal stance vs the hawks in US and Europe. Malaysia’s Ministry of Finance has instructed banks to waive interest on loans under moratorium with immediate effect while Bank Indonesia is forcing banks to boost loan disbursement to MSMEs.

Could ECB’s recent recall of its pandemic monetary support pressure the US Fed to signal tapering by Sep? MKE’s portfolio strategist presents his case for improving sell-side sentiment for ASEAN equity markets and his convictions why downside will be limited even in the event of taper tantrums. MKE has just initiated coverage on Singapore-based SEA Ltd with a buy call.

US non farm payrolls missed consensus expectations by a long shot stoking stagflation fears. Will Malaysia's maiden pre-budget meeting boost investor confidence in how the country manages its finances. MKE's Malaysia banks analyst Desmond gives the lowdown on Malaysia banks and his positioning strategy. With China's slowdown, MKE's FX head Saktiandi discusses about the risk of RMB devaluation.

Winson Phoon shares on what the bond futures market imply about risks following the Fed’s signal that tapering could occur as early as late 2021. Malaysia has announced its new cabinet lineup; will this announcement improve overall market sentiment for FBMKLCI? Semiconductor industry has been facing pressure because of supply chain bottlenecks. Is now the time to take profit on ASEAN chip testers...

Malaysia has appointed Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri as its 9th Prime Minister. Will the change bring about the much needed political stability? As the Fed heads into its Kansas City annual conference on Thursday, markets will be watching for clues what the Fed will do about tackling higher inflation. MKE makes the case for 4 risk factors that will delay the pace of ASEAN’s economic recovery. Thailand w...

Chua Hak Bin argues that ASEAN’s economic outlook will continue to diverge at the country level, well into 2022. MKE launch model portfolio baskets to help clients invest through market cycles. What is priced into FX and credit markets as markets weigh in on the timing of US Fed tapering? Finally, MKE is long CPO sector despite near-term headwinds.

Indonesia ESG push does not get enough credit from markets. MKE Research downgrades Vietnam as the country loses it grip on containing the Delta variant. Is the anomaly between 10y UST and inflation trends expected to last and what is MKE’s call on USD and ASEAN FX? Anand Pathmakanthan shares his top picks for ASEAN and Thilan Wikramasinghe discusses MAS’ latest move to uplift dividends for Singap...

Despite the Fed’s assurance that higher prices are merely transitory, the uncertainty of its duration leads to higher volatility in the market. Maybank downgrades the Thai property sector; ASEAN Speaks panelists dissect the drivers and explain how property developers are resorting to technology to sustain sales. Stay tuned for these highlights and more.

US 10 year treasury yields continue to compress; Maybank's fixed income team addresses the factors that are driving compression. With political headwinds rising in Malaysia and EMCO impacting labour supply, which industries are least vulnerable? Thailand's hospitality sandbox kicks off in Phuket but reopening plans hang in the balance following the discovery of COVID-19 cases from inbound tourists...

Amidst a strong US jobs market, low US treasury yields and VIX, ASEAN equity markets’ performance was relatively weak last week, especially Malaysia. Maybank’s strategists focus on the Delta variant’s impact on the timeline to recovery and where smart money is flowing.

G7 landmark accord on corporate tax reform aims to end the race to the bottom since the 1980s in which countries have slashed corporate tax rates and provided generous exemptions to attract MNCs. How will ASEAN stay competitive? Maria Lapiz, MKE's Thai Head of Research shares with us the ESG investment landscape in Thailand and her top picks within this category. The Philippines equity market cont...

As Fed shift resets markets, Maybank Kim Eng’s FX strategists discuss about the sensitivity of ASEAN currencies. ASEAN equity markets mostly ended down last week except for Malaysia and Vietnam. Our Singapore REITs and Malaysia property research desks discuss where value can be found.

KL Kepong has launched a RM1.5b cash offer to buy IJM's 56% stake in IJM Plantations. Is the deal accretive and are there other noteworthy acquisition targets left within the sector? Thailand's stock market has performed well despite sluggish economic data and concerns over rising covid cases. Maria Lapiz, Maybank's Thai Research Head shares her insights and her top 3 picks for the remainder of 20...

Malaysia has announced a RM40bn economic stimulus package to mitigate the impact of its latest lockdown. Malaysian government securities staged a mini rally last week, is it sustainable and should investors sell into strength? Our ASEAN tech team gives the lay of the land for semiconductor suppliers in Malaysia and the global chip shortage. What are insiders doing with ASEAN tech listcos? 

U.S. next jobs report on Fri June 4 will signal if employment data is trending above the 3M moving average of 520k monthly additions, potentially fuelling inflation concerns and impacting outcome of June 17 FOMC meeting. Back in ASEAN, with Thailand’s central bank rates at almost zero, what else can Thailand do to pump prime its economy in the wake of another COVID breakout? As Malaysia enters int...

Malaysia makes the difficult choice of accepting the stricter MCO 3.5 vs a total lockdown. Bond markets was relatively steady despite the 92bp m/m increase in US core CPI but Huarong’s de-rating remains a persistent cause for concern for the offshore debt markets. Malaysia’s CPO sector is losing price competitiveness as Indonesia’s revamped progressive tax rates are giving palm oil refiners a comp...

As inflation data accelerates, the US central bank will have to decide if it is to change its monetary policy stance to control inflation. Asset dislocations will likely rise; what are the key signposts to watch for ASEAN capital markets? Among regional peers, Singapore’s stock market performance has been stellar. How will rotations flow?

ASEAN’s stock market performance continues to diverge. What are the determinants that will change this narrative for fund flows? Malaysia just wrapped up its OPR meeting on May 6. What effect does the re-imposition of mobility restrictions have on its policy rate outlook. Singapore's banking sector has just concluded its Q1 earnings season, are Sing banks still in pole position relative to regiona...

USD could see temporary support in the interim as a new mutant wave of COVID-19 resurgence threatens India and Asia. This podcast will also explore migrant worker flows and its impact on real estate markets, crude oil trends and Thailand’s petrochemical sector, and Malaysia’s construction sector.

Inflation trends in Singapore are increasingly visible from the properties segment. The spectre of property cooling measures may lead to risks of premature tightening by regulators. Thailand’s property measures on the other hand are more supportive, which underpins Maybank Kim Eng’s positive view of the sector. Philippines stock market is the worst performing ASEAN market, but deep value is emergi...