ASEAN Speaks

Amidst a strong US jobs market, low US treasury yields and VIX, ASEAN equity markets’ performance was relatively weak last week, especially Malaysia. Maybank’s strategists focus on the Delta variant’s impact on the timeline to recovery and where smart money is flowing.

G7 landmark accord on corporate tax reform aims to end the race to the bottom since the 1980s in which countries have slashed corporate tax rates and provided generous exemptions to attract MNCs. How will ASEAN stay competitive? Maria Lapiz, MKE's Thai Head of Research shares with us the ESG investment landscape in Thailand and her top picks within this category. The Philippines equity market cont...

As Fed shift resets markets, Maybank Kim Eng’s FX strategists discuss about the sensitivity of ASEAN currencies. ASEAN equity markets mostly ended down last week except for Malaysia and Vietnam. Our Singapore REITs and Malaysia property research desks discuss where value can be found.

KL Kepong has launched a RM1.5b cash offer to buy IJM's 56% stake in IJM Plantations. Is the deal accretive and are there other noteworthy acquisition targets left within the sector? Thailand's stock market has performed well despite sluggish economic data and concerns over rising covid cases. Maria Lapiz, Maybank's Thai Research Head shares her insights and her top 3 picks for the remainder of 20...

Malaysia has announced a RM40bn economic stimulus package to mitigate the impact of its latest lockdown. Malaysian government securities staged a mini rally last week, is it sustainable and should investors sell into strength? Our ASEAN tech team gives the lay of the land for semiconductor suppliers in Malaysia and the global chip shortage. What are insiders doing with ASEAN tech listcos? 

U.S. next jobs report on Fri June 4 will signal if employment data is trending above the 3M moving average of 520k monthly additions, potentially fuelling inflation concerns and impacting outcome of June 17 FOMC meeting. Back in ASEAN, with Thailand’s central bank rates at almost zero, what else can Thailand do to pump prime its economy in the wake of another COVID breakout? As Malaysia enters int...

Malaysia makes the difficult choice of accepting the stricter MCO 3.5 vs a total lockdown. Bond markets was relatively steady despite the 92bp m/m increase in US core CPI but Huarong’s de-rating remains a persistent cause for concern for the offshore debt markets. Malaysia’s CPO sector is losing price competitiveness as Indonesia’s revamped progressive tax rates are giving palm oil refiners a comp...

As inflation data accelerates, the US central bank will have to decide if it is to change its monetary policy stance to control inflation. Asset dislocations will likely rise; what are the key signposts to watch for ASEAN capital markets? Among regional peers, Singapore’s stock market performance has been stellar. How will rotations flow?

ASEAN’s stock market performance continues to diverge. What are the determinants that will change this narrative for fund flows? Malaysia just wrapped up its OPR meeting on May 6. What effect does the re-imposition of mobility restrictions have on its policy rate outlook. Singapore's banking sector has just concluded its Q1 earnings season, are Sing banks still in pole position relative to regiona...

USD could see temporary support in the interim as a new mutant wave of COVID-19 resurgence threatens India and Asia. This podcast will also explore migrant worker flows and its impact on real estate markets, crude oil trends and Thailand’s petrochemical sector, and Malaysia’s construction sector.

Inflation trends in Singapore are increasingly visible from the properties segment. The spectre of property cooling measures may lead to risks of premature tightening by regulators. Thailand’s property measures on the other hand are more supportive, which underpins Maybank Kim Eng’s positive view of the sector. Philippines stock market is the worst performing ASEAN market, but deep value is emergi...

Following the recent ratings cut in Huarong’s bonds, credit markets are unnerved by the possibility that China may actually let the state-backed distressed debt manager go into default. Over in Singapore, with the impending announcement of a cabinet reshuffle, will SGX’s strong performance and momentum come to an abrupt halt? Join us in this week's ASEAN Speaks podcast. 

Today we focus on ESG investing and find out what the scorecard looks like for Malaysian corporates and says about its ESG readiness. We also get a preview of MAS’s inflation stance and what our FX strategist is forecasting for the Sing dollar. In technology, Applied Materials just held its investor day and the group remains positive over the wafer fab equipment industry. With Intel and TSMC recen...

As the fallout from Archegos Capital appears contained and with US strong macro fundamentals hogging the limelight, capital markets moved to risk on environment, at least temporarily. This week, we assess if Malaysia’s central bank will likely tighten given their higher inflation outlook for 2Q21. With US 10 year treasuries closing out last Fri unchanged, will it continue to consolidate in this ra...

As markets brace after Archegos' fire sale of $20b worth of stocks last Friday, Asian markets seem to have held up well on Mon’s open. Malaysia’s Ministry of Finance has revised Malaysia’s budget deficit to 6% of 2021 GDP; will this lead to the introduction of capital gains tax as market grapevine suggests? As the Federal Reserve prepares to do away with restrictions on bank dividends and buybacks...

With bitcoins hogging so much limelight, Maybank's FX team joins the debate if Bitcoin and equity price moves will continue to remain positively correlated and the drivers of this relationship. Thailand’s equity market valuations are lofty, which suggests that the market is ripe for profit taking. We see tactical rotations into laggards such as Petrochemicals, Autos, Consumer Finance & banks....

With the FOMC minutes due on Wed (2pm Eastern standard time), market expectations and particularly, the distribution of the FOMC’s dot plot, are likely to diverge sharply. Whether the signal for a lift-off in interest rates comes now or later, it is prudent to take stock of the current rotation in funds flow. This week, we discuss about Top Glove’s changing fundamentals, Malaysia’s NFO sector, fin...

We continue with our analysis how capital markets are expected to trend as we rotate out of a Goldilocks environment with the apparent bottoming of interest rates. Key of which, we ask ourselves what new observations can we infer from the last taper tantrum in 2013 when the fed funds rate started to reflate? Sector wise, our strategists review their picks for medical gloves, banks, property and to...

With the spectre of rising interest rates and market volatility, we look at past episodes of taper tantrums and the vulnerability of ASEAN’s capital markets. As the earnings season comes to a close, we investigate what surprised our Singapore banks and Philippines conglomerates analysts. Finally, we also look at Malaysia’s decision to bring forward its 5G plans for commercial use by 2021. Who are...

The lunar year of the ox is said to bring success in many ways for all zodiac signs. It is no coincidence that markets are bearing witness to firmer bond yields, which we interpret as investor expectations of a strong economic recovery. As of last Fri, the 10y UST benchmark yield stood at 1.344%, up from 1.157% just 5 trading sessions earlier. Maybank’s strategists will focus on the implications t...

Singapore Budget 2021 was announced on Feb 16 by Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat. With an overall budget deficit projected at 2.2% of GDP, this estimate is much lower than the consensus median range of 4%. What are the risks of a fiscal cliff and implications on MAS’ FX policy? Are there material changes to Maybank Kim Eng’s investment outlook for the Singapore market?

We assess the impact of Myanmar’s coup on its economy as the country reverts to its past with the Lady detained and military back in charge. Malaysia has extended its MCO by 2 weeks, which was scheduled to end on Feb 4. The key question here is if MCO becomes protracted, given how fast government debt is rising, is there still room for even more stimulus? The bull run in ASEAN bank shares is showi...

Today our economics team shares on their latest outlook for Singapore. With the recent suspension of reciprocal travel bubbles with Malaysia, South Korea and Germany, how large an impact will this have on migrant workers as more than 30% of Singapore’s workforce is non resident. Lockdowns or not, Vietnam’s exports and manufacturing activity is humming. We explain the drivers behind this economic r...

As US Democrats push for US$1.9tn in stimulus, the prospects of easy monetary and fiscal policies continue to underpin ebullient conditions for global equity markets. Central banks in Malaysia and Indonesia left policy rates unchanged last week, we get a pulse check from Maybank’s economics team on the likelihood of further rate cuts and which Asian currencies are the most undervalued. On growth t...

As we ring in the new year, Maybank Kim Eng’s research team digs deep to sift through the best themes on our clients’ minds. Malaysia has just implemented movement control order 2.0 so we ask our strategists if the economic cost of MCO 2.0 will be greater than the last one. Commodity prices have also been in focus and like crude oil, palm oil prices have rallied since 3Q 2020. Will tight supplies...