All the Credit

Quantitative tightening (QT), the unwinding of the large scale of purchases of a broad range of financial assets by central banks, has become a feature of monetary policy since the great financial crisis. Though central banks around the world have already started this process, given the many distractors in the market, such as the global banking crisis and the U.S. debt ceiling brinkmanship, QT has...

Just a few months ago, the market was confident that post global financial crisis, financial sector reforms, and regulatory scrutiny ensured that the U.S. banking system was rock solid, and that the next cycle's culprit would emanate from elsewhere. However, banking is once again front and center as investors weigh systematic risks from another prospective real estate crunch — this time in the com...

With "x-date" looming, concerns about a potential default are weighing on financial markets and the global economy. As the nation's solvency hangs in the balance, Daleep Singh, PGIM Fixed Income's Chief Global Economist and Head of Macroeconomic Research , joins this episode of All the Credit ® to discuss this U.S. government fiscal fiasco. To begin, Daleep lays the groundwork with a brief history...

After years of strict COVID lockdowns, China's domestic consumer economy is rapidly re-opening. Meanwhile, global manufacturing—normally an area of Chinese dominance—is being challenged by tighter credit conditions after years of progressive central bank hawkishness. In addition, the country still finds itself in the global geopolitical crosshairs as highly restrictive policies against China remai...

Recent global banking failures shook investors and markets alike, leaving many wondering if we're witnessing a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis. In this episode of All the Credit ® , Mick Meyler, Head of Developed Market Rates , and David Jiang, U.S. Investment Grade Credit Research Analyst , review the events of this latest crisis, discuss the potential for more bank runs, outline poten...

A confluence of higher debt levels, tightening central bank policies, and weakening growth are raising red flags around borrower credit quality as signs of financial strain are beginning to emerge. Against this backdrop and as a part of our integrated credit research processes, we remain on the lookout for potential problems across corporate borrowers, consumers, and commercial real estate, both i...

The residential real estate market directly or indirectly impacts everyone. After all, everyone is born short a house. Home prices and construction activity also largely impact economic growth, wealth, inflation, and, for fixed income investors, residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). With the market suddenly in a downturn, should investors be prepared for lower house prices and rents? Decl...

Earlier this year, PGIM Fixed Income developed an inflation indicator tool that uses various economic variables to segregate the supply factors that explain the change in inflation, from those associated with demand. The end result helps us gain insight into the future direction of core goods inflation. On this episode of  All the Credit® , Guillermo Felices, PhD, Global Investment Strategist, exp...

For the first time in decades, long-term interest rates have broken out of their steady downtrend with recent spikes. Is this a temporary irregularity? Or has the rate environment reverted to a paradigm of sustained higher yields and returns from bonds? In this episode, Robert Tipp, CFA, examines how we arrived at "low for long," and why it's given way to generational highs in growth, inflation, a...

On this special edition of All the Credit ®, Mike Collins hands the mic to PGIM Fixed Income's Co-Chief Investment Officer, Greg Peters, and newly appointed Chief Global Economist, Daleep Singh, to discuss: the current macro backdrop; central bank policy and response; impacts to the fixed income market; possible macro scenarios heading into 2023 and trends we're watching; opportunities in fixed in...

With the recent announcement of a major student loan forgiveness program in the U.S., we dissect the program and its implications for fixed income investors. PGIM Fixed Income's Florence Chan, Head of ABS Research, and Scott Motta, of the Securitized Products portfolio team, are here to sort through all the details, including: a brief history of student loans in the U.S.; details on the new loan f...

In a prior episode, we examined the broad economic implications of the European energy crisis as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the related effects of the conflict. And with the winter season fast approaching, we wanted to provide an update on the region's energy situation. We've called on Katharine Neiss, PhD, Chief European Economist, and Magdalena Polan, Lead Economist for major E...

After a challenging first half of the year for fixed income, we see reason for optimism ahead for a variety of sectors. PGIM Fixed Income Multi-sector Portfolio Manager, Lindsay Rosner, CFA, and Senior Portfolio Manager, Mike Collins, CFA, examine the state of individual fixed income sectors and share their top active management, relative-value ideas. We're talking "all the opportunities" in this...

The current, compressed, and rapidly changing credit cycle, which has experienced dramatic swings in economics, policy, inflation, and corporate fundamentals, has been anything but typical. With a backdrop like this, investors' and credit analysts' heads are spinning trying to keep up! In this episode, Janet Crowe and Brian Barnhurst, CFA, PGIM Fixed Income's Co-Heads of Credit Research, help us s...

Although the traditional asset allocation portfolio mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds has been a widely adopted investment approach that has spanned decades, a lower interest rate environment coupled with the underperformance of equities and bonds, has investors questioning the validity of the 60-40 asset allocation model. While we also see this portfolio structure as flawed, it's not for the reason...

The global impacts of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are wide-ranging and include the global energy industry amidst the varied reliance on Russian oil and gas by European countries. With COVID-related supply shortages, the exacerbation of the shift away from traditional fossil-fuel-based energy investment, and higher housing, travel, and many food prices, conditions are increasing the need for tight...

Credit fundamentals across most municipal bond issuers have improved markedly and may be more immune from some of the recent geopolitical events in eastern Europe and rising commodity prices relative to many corporate or sovereign credits. That, coupled with aging populations, a steady stream of daily retirements in the U.S., and increased demand for high-quality fixed income securities, especiall...

Securitized products, sometimes referred to as structured products or, more generically, asset-backed securities, has—more recently—experienced dramatic growth in market size. And while the sector is approaching nearly $4 trillion, the securitized assets market and investor appetite continues to expand. In this episode of All the Credit®, we'll explore the evolution of the fixed income securitized...

Despite the wildly unique ride that was 2021, which saw a boom in economic growth in most countries, a global inflation surge, and COVID's constant and pervasive presence, the path of the global economy and financial markets may have been more predictable a year ago than they are today. With economic and earnings growth poised to peak, inflation most likely to subside, and tightening of monetary a...

The 26th annual UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) fell short of our expectations and left ESG-focused investors with more considerations than ever before. It also did little to add clarity to the path ahead. With COP26 behind us, host Michael Collins, CFA is joined by PGIM Fixed Income's ESG specialists, Armelle de Vienne and John Ploeg, CFA for an insightful discussion of the summit, how it ca...

In this episode of All The Credit, PGIM Fixed Income's panel discusses the latest emerging trends in the global banking sector, which include the rapidly growing interest in central bank digital currencies. Host and Senior Portfolio Manager Michael Collins, CFA is joined by Chief European Economist Katharine Neiss, PhD, and European Investment Grade Credit Research Analyst James Hyde for a convers...

Episode 20 of  All The Credit® covers the current topics impacting emerging markets– idiosyncratic issues, the unique inflationary challenges facing EM nations, how developed markets impact the sector, China, and more. Cathy Hepworth, CFA, Head of Emerging Markets Debt, joins Host and Senior Portfolio Manager Michael Collins, CFA, to provide her insights on what her team is watching across the ran...

With approximately 100 years of investment experience across the three-member panel, this episode of  All The Credit  delves into the nuances of the current global credit cycle with a special focus on how the "rising star" phenomenon is impacting investment grade and high yield markets. Host and Senior Portfolio Manager Mike Collins welcomes PGIM Fixed Income's Terence Wheat, Co-Head of the U.S. I...

In this episode of  All The Credit , a panel of senior investment professionals from PGIM Fixed Income and PGIM Real Estate explore if there's a housing bubble, how return to work scenarios could impact commercial office markets, what the future holds for retail, lodging, warehouses, and much more. This wide-ranging discussion of all things real estate features Lee Menifee, Head of Americas Invest...

With inflation rising, shortages of key goods due to rising demand, and disruptions abound in the global supply chain, PGIM Fixed Income's All The Credit assesses the top-down macroeconomic factors at play and delves into some of the supply chain bottlenecks causing angst. Importantly, this episode also shares what the current environment means for fixed income investors. Host and Senior Portfolio...