Al Ahly Pharos

- Market Overview - Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Weekly Commodities Update Brent futures are trading at USD123.31/bbl and averaged USD92.29/bbl YTD Diesel-HSFO spreads were up 61% WoW and are at USD569/ton The Egypt Urea Index increased by 14% WoW and prices are currently at USD835/ton Steel/Iron Ore spreads hiked by 24% to USD542/ton LME 3M Fwd Aluminum prices came up 15% at USD3,849/ton Retail cement prices in Egypt followed the trend this wee...

- Market Overview  - COMI - AMOC - ABUK - SKPC - CCAP - ESRS - prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Minister of Finance: Soaring global prices could cost the state an additional EGP15 billion for wheat imports in FY2021/22 Minister of Finance: GDP growth target during the current FY2021/22 is 6.7%, while targeting a budget deficit of 6.7% for the current fiscal year Eight shipping lines have disrupted cargo reservations to and from Russia because of the war on Ukraine, which might affect Egyptia...

- Market Overview - COMI - ABUK - EKHO - HRHO - MTIE    - Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Net International Reserves were almost flat in February, at USD40.99 billion compared to USD40.98 in January; Value of the gold component increased We expect annual urban inflation to jump to around 8% in February up from 7.2% in January, on surging food prices IMF: Economic consequences of the war in Ukraine are very serious creating an adverse shock to both inflation and economic activity FAO&ap...

- Market Overview - CCAP - ABUK - SKPC - ESRS - Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Egypt’s PMI inched up to 48.1 in February compared to 47.9 in January, reflecting a slowdown in the rate of input price inflation, a slight contraction in backlogs, a strong decline in activity, and lower confidence Egypt has seen an estimated USD3 billion leave its treasury markets since the Russian invasion of Ukraine (Reuters) US markets rebound as Fed head Powell says rate hikes will proceed w...

- Market Overview - CIEB - EKHO - ETEL - HELI - SWDY - FWRY - Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Net foreign liability (NFL) position of banks records USD11.5 billion in January compared to USD10 billion in December Suez Canal revenues rose by 15.1% in February 2022, to USD545.5 million The government plans to buy 5.5 million tons of wheat from local farmers during the upcoming season, +38% EAST declared yesterday a price increase for 7 of its local products; This rise in prices adds EGP1,659...

- Market Overview - FWRY - EFIH - ETEL - SWDY - Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

State grain buyer GASC canceled its wheat tender yesterday on the back of high prices Ministry of Supply said that the government is in no rush to raise subsidized bread prices Egypt is close to issuing the first sovereign Sukuk; with an estimated value of USD1 billion Suez Canal is to charge higher fees starting today (5%-10%) Minister of Finance plans to offer 10 government companies on the EGX...

- Market Overview - EKHO - ABUK - AUTO - CCAP - ESRS - CIEB - FWRY - prepared by : Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Kyiv, the capital, is still holding out against Russian troops. Ukraine has agreed to talks with Russia on the border with Belarus The total budget deficit in Egypt widened during the first 7M FY21/22 to 4.7% of GDP, compared to 4.4% for 7M FY20/21, due to higher debt service and subsidy spending There are 14 alternative markets for sourcing wheat imports to Egypt including the United States, Fran...

- Market overview - COMI - EKHO - HRHO - ETEL - AUTO - MFPC - Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Russian forces stepped up their assault in Kyiv overnight; Select Russian banks are about to be cut off from the global banking system CBE: Foreign investments in Egyptian T-bills recorded a lower decline in December 2021, recording a balance of USD20.48 billion Remittances from Egyptians working abroad increased by 6.6% YoY during the 11M2021, recording USD28.9 billion State grain buyer GASC will...

When War Drums Beat, Duck for Cover Risks/Themes 1. Higher energy and global commodity prices 2. Inflation, which might be exacerbated by a potential re-pricing of some subsidized commodities 3. “Possible” strength in the US Dollar 4. Higher interest rates, at least on sovereign and treasury bills, due to higher credit default swap rates Hedging Strategy| Fixed Income, EKHO, COMI, HRHO, EFIH, PHDC...

- Market Overview - COMI - Prepared by: Mayada Amin, CETA, CFTe

Egypt’s cabinet is drawing up an action plan for the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian tension on Wheat imports and tourism receipts Egypt has reportedly appointed six international banks to manage its maiden USD 2 bn sovereign Sukuk issuance US equities extended their fall yesterday as the US and other countries expanded sanctions on Russia Brent crude has broken the USD 98 barrier, gaining 1.4% El...

- Market Overview  - CCAP - ATLC - ATQA - EMFD - HELI - Prepared by: Mayada Amin, CETA, CFTe

Ministry of Planning upgraded its forecast for real GDP growth in FY2021/22 to 6.2% - 6.5% from 5.6% EGX launched four new sub-indices to track the performance of the most actively traded EGP-denominated sovereign debt instruments Workers and investors in the tourism sector said that the Russia-Ukraine crisis escalation caused a 30% decrease this month in the reservations of tourists from both cou...

- Market Overview - COMI - ABUK - CCAP - CIEB - SWDY - MTIE - Prepared by: Mayada Amin  CETA, CFTe

COMI's 4Q21 net profit recorded a robust EGP3.37 billion (+16% y/y); FY21 bottom line to EGP13.27 billion (+30% y/y); FY21 net profit was supported by a lower effective tax rate coupled with significantly lower provisions (-67% y/y); Stock is trading at P/E 2022of 7.2x and P/B 2022 of 1.2x Goldman Sachs and law firm White & Case will advise HRHO’s BoD on the acquisition by FAB; The board...

- Market Overview - Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Regulatory approval will be required before conducting due diligence on non-banking financial institutions, according to a decision announced by FRA; Requirement will come into effect when it’s published in the Official Gazette CBE is launching an initiative with the Credit Guarantee Company to help cover the risks associated with issuing letters of credit from banks The House of Representatives a...