Al Ahly Pharos

Market Overview  Prepared by  Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Pitch: ARCC| An Efficient Player in Tough Times; Upgrade FV to EGP9.94/share. We expect a healthy growth in cement prices (5-year CAGR of 14%, compared to a CAGR of 3% previously), driven mainly by a 50% hike in 2023 to cover up the soaring coal and pet coke prices post currency depreciation. ARCC is enjoying an efficient energy mix (pet coke and alternative fuels fulfill around 80% of ARCC’s ener...

Market Overview  Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Market Overview  Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Pitch: ADIB| The Rising Star; Upgrade FV to EGP 28.50/share. The bank is currently trading at 0.9x P/B23 and 5.0x P/E23 on net profit post minority and appropriations of EGP 2.2 billion (growth of 24% y/y). Our FV is EGP 28.50/share on 500 million shares, post the conclusion of the final round of capital increase. The stock is the second most liquid in the sector after COMI and joined EGX30. We se...

Egypt's external debt declined during the third quarter of last year by about USD720 million, to record USD154.98 billion, which is the second consecutive quarterly decline.  Egypt joining the BRICS’ New Development Bank is raising hopes that this might help reduce demand for USD in the economy, as bank members can use their local currencies in bilateral trade.  ORHD achieved stellar 4Q22 sal...

- Market Overview  - COMI - HRHO - ORWE - PHDC - EMFD - CCAP - MTIE - TMGH Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Egypt’s B credit rating with a stable outlook.  Prime Minister announced in a speech to reporters the following:  1) The backlog of imported goods at Egyptian ports has been cleared. 2) The government will in two weeks reveal the details of the state-owned firms it plans to offer on the EGX this year.  3) The government will work to activate the initiative to fi...

- Market Overview  - COMI - SAUD - SWDY - ABUK - MTIE - EMFD - prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA,  CFTe

ORHD| A Dollar-Denominated Asset That Is Still Cheap. ORHD offers solid sales, exposure to the revival in tourism, diversified revenue mix (real estate, hotels, town management), sizable recurring income (hotels, town management), large residual land bank (around 25.0 million sqm), unique product offering (El Gouna, Makadi Heights, Taba Heights), solid development track record, and the shortest in...

- Market Overview  - COMI - JUFO - EGAS - ADIB - CIEB - ORWE - HRHO Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The Egyptian government held an extended meeting with the World Bank, on Sunday, to discuss the country's financing package. The portfolio between Egypt and the World Bank is c. USD 6.8 billion. Al Mal Newspaper reported that several international institutions decided to invest in Egyptian sovereign debt instruments, including Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.  Minister of Petroleum expected that...

Market Overview  Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

The government has signed a fresh USD1.5 bn financing agreement with the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) to fund energy and basic commodities imports. The Supply Ministry is set to finalize the “fair prices” of a number of food and consumer commodities this month, to clamp down on price gouging amid soaring inflation. The country needs to invest some USD30 bn into tourism to...

Market Overview 

Emerging-market equity and bond funds saw a record USD12.7 bn in inflows last week as China’s relaxation of its covid-19 curbs continues to drive optimism. Foreign investors are once again looking at Egypt’s debt market on the back of a cheaper EGP and record-high yield. The Bank of Russia last week approved the EGP as a trade currency, raising hopes in Egypt to make it easier to import from Russi...

- Market Overview  - ABUK - HDBK - PHDC - ACGC - JUFO - ZMID - SUGR - EDBM prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The Prime Minister announced the approval of new 11% subsidized loans for industry and agriculture. Current backlog of imported goods at ports stands at some USD5.3 billion, of which USD 3 billion is pending documents from importers rather than hard currency to be released. Egypt’s total exports grew by 20% YoY in 2022 to register USD53.8 billion, while non-oil imports remained unchanged at around...

Market Overview  Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Banque du Caire is now offering a one-year, 25% certificate of deposit. Real estate tax revenues reached EGP3.1 billion during 1H22/23. The Ministry of Transport and the Spanish train manufacturer, Talgo, are considering establishing a new company to localize the train manufacturing industry in Egypt. According to Fitch Ratings, Egyptian banks’ regulatory capital ratios can withstand further EGP d...

Market Overview  Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA ,CFTe

The Central Bank announced of an upswing in foreign inflows to local banks through the local foreign exchange market and other sources in recent days. Foreign investors poured some USD925 million into our local foreign exchange market in three days.  The two state-owned banks will withdraw within days the one-year, 25% certificates of deposit they introduced to the market. The government is curren...

Market Overview  FWRY ORWE MNHD EMFD Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

-Egyptian Banks: Love at the time of macro challenges. Egyptian banks are delivering ROEs north of 20%, and most of them are trading below book values. Most banks that got acquired in Egypt recently witnessed transaction multiples that are double those seen amongst listed banks. Treasury investments will present a good opportunity to park excess liquidity, and the high-interest rate environment wi...

- Market Overview  - MTIE - BTFH - ADIB - JUFO - CIEB - MICH -,prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe