Al Ahly Pharos

Market Overview  Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Egyptian Banks| You are Hedged by Nominal Growth  The current macroeconomic environment is creating a perfect opportunity for banks' profitability. Balance sheets will expand with the weakness in local currency and high inflation. Treasury investments will present a good opportunity to park excess liquidity, and the high-interest rate environment will serve NIMs and push them higher. Banks ha...

Market Overview  SKPC MFPC ABUK HELI ACAMD  ATLC ZMID ORWE FWRY Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Egypt’s annual urban inflation jumped to 32.7% y-o-y in March, up from 31.9% the month before. Core inflation stood at 39.5% y-o-y in March, down slightly from February’s record high of 40.3%. Yesterday, the spring meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund kicked off in Washington, DC, with the participation of Egypt’s Minister of International Cooperation. Chinese hydropower...

Market Overview  COMI EKHOA CCAP ARAB ORWE ASCM BINV CASG PHDC Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

1Q23 Earnings Expectations| Currency rate and availability play a key role in shaping profits. 1) Excluding FX losses for 1Q23, aggregated profits will rise c.20% YoY, 2) Including FX losses, aggregated profits will decline 18% YoY, 3) For FY2023, aggregated profits will rise 5% YoY, due to FX losses for some large-cap companies  Stocks that will witness a spike (>30%) in profit growth YoY in F...

- Market Overview  - SKPC - SWDY - ALUM - EKHOA - CCAP - Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

World Bank revised its Egypt economic growth forecast during FY22/23 to 4.0%, down from 4.8% previously. The World Bank is now expecting the MENA region to grow at a 3.0% clip during 2023, down 0.5% from its previous forecast. Egypt's trade deficit fell 47% YoY in January to USD2.48 billion. Exports fell 7% YoY to USD3.85 billion, while imports decreased 28% to USD6.33 billion. The expat car...

Market Overview  Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Egypt’s net foreign reserves inched up to USD34.45 billion in March from USD34.35 billion in February. Suez Canal revenues jumped 39% y-o-y in March 2023 to an all-time monthly high of USD832.2 million. The government is studying the possibility of including EXPA in the government privatization program. Cabinet approved new minimum wage tiers for public-sector workers effective 1 April 2023. An Am...

Market Overview  COMI JUFO MICH EDBM Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Bloomberg reported that last month's banking crisis that saw the collapse of three US lenders and Credit Suisse didn't produce the kind of turmoil seen in the lead-up to the 2008 meltdown, raising concerns about what might be coming down the line amid uncertainty about interest rates and inflation. Japan has split from its G7 allies and will now purchase Russian crude at prices higher th...

Market Overview  MFPC EFIC ASCM ELSH ADIB Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Egypt’s PMI scored 46.7 in March 2023, from 46.9 in February, signaling a further deterioration in the performance of non-oil companies.  Egypt’s external debt in 2Q FY22/23 rose 5.1% q-o-q to USD 162.9 bn during the October-December quarter.  The Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) will head to India in June, to meet with businesses and investors in sectors including automotive, pharma, and green f...

Market Overview  ADIB CIEB ASCM EGAL ACGC HRHO Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

BRICS might challenge the USD’s dominance in global trade. China and Brazil said last week they will carry out bilateral trade in their domestic currencies. Egypt and India, meanwhile, are considering executing their trade in INR, Bloomberg reports. China settled a bill for LNG imports from the UAE in CNY for the first time. The country is also in talks with Saudi Arabia for a similar arrangement....

Market Overview  COMI MNHD ASCM BTFH ABUK FWRY Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Market Overview 

The CBE increased overnight deposit and lending rates and the rate of the main operation by 200 bps to 18.25%, 19.25%, and 18.75%, respectively. Egypt’s external debt increased 5.5% to USD162.9 billion in December 2022, compared to September 2022 and 11.9% YoY compared to December 2021. Financial and capital account recorded a deficit of USD1.6 billion in December 2022. For the first time since 3Q...

CBE is expected to raise rates by 200-300 bps at its MPC meeting today. Cabinet approved the FY 2023-2024 budget. The Finance Ministry will increase by 28% its spending on social safety programs and has raised allocations to food subsidies by 20% and fuel subsidies by 24%. The Finance Ministry is targeting 4.1% growth in FY 2023-2024 and expects to deliver a 2.5% primary surplus and a budget defic...

Market Overview  COMI HRHO ABUK ADiB BTFH EFIH HELI Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The index of the manufacturing and extractive industries “excluding crude oil and petroleum products” decreased during the month of January by about 2.66%, to reach 105.69 points, compared to 108.58 points in the previous December. The value of Egypt's agricultural exports during the first 5 months of the 2022-2023 export season reached to USD 1.24 billion, compared to USD 907 million during...

Market Overview  ORWE EKHOA FWRY SWDY Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Suez Canal Economic Zone aims to attract USD2 bn of investments in 2023, within the textiles, readymade garments, automotive, and steel pipes industries. The value of goods released from Egyptian ports YTD hit USD5.4 billion. As many as six of the first eight companies set to offer shares as part of the state privatization program are oil or petchem players, including Enppi, Midor, Assiut Oil Refi...

Market Overview  Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe