Al Ahly Pharos

Market Overview 

*Key news articles for today* The CBE's MPC is meeting today to decide on interest rates for the last scheduled time in 2023. We believe the MPC might prefer to keep rates unchanged, as any possible hike would be of little benefit compared to its fiscal costs.  Egypt is approaching an agreement with the IMF to increase its loan from USD3 billion to USD6 billion. The government has so far secu...

Market Overview  COMI ARAB ATQA EDBM ETEL prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key news articles for today* Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly is scheduled to hold a privatization press conference today.  According to Reuters, shipping companies are rerouting their vessels away from the Red Sea, in response to repeated attacks on shipping by Houthi armed groups in Yemen.  12-month non-deliverable forwards contracts have reportedly fallen 7% since mid-November to a record low...

Market Overview  Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

The MPC will hold its meeting on Thursday 21 December to decide on policy rates. We expect the MPC to keep rates unchanged, as inflation outlook does not urge an immediate hike in policy rates. We believe the MPC might prefer to save a hike decision for another timing, related to a widely anticipated a downward movement on the currency front. This will most probably require a simultaneous rate hik...

Market Overview  COMI FWRY EFIH TMGH EAST

The base wage used to calculate national ins. contributions for public and private sector workers will be raised to a minimum of EGP2k and a maximum of EGP12.6k as of 1 January 2024. The flow of traffic in the Suez Canal remains normal, authority head said. Egypt received USD8.8 billion in external financing for the government and private sectors during 2023, compared to USD13.7 billion in 2022, a...

Market Overview  COMI CIEB ADIB EKHO JUFO MCQE HDBK ORHD GBCO KABO APSW Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

EGAL's capital increase and revamp project trigger potential FV upgrade to EGP96.00/share Initial agreement on Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) subscription to EGAL’s capital increase Scenario: Upside potential triggered by the transaction. There are many missing inputs and details to quantify the costs and benefits of the revamp project into our model. We are currently valuing EGAL at a FV of...

Market Overview 

*Key news articles for today* Suez Canal Authority amends and extends passage fees reductions for chemicals, petroleum products and LNG vessels until 30 June 2024. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady for the third straight time and set the table for multiple cuts to come in 2024 and beyond. We issued this morning our Egypt Consumer Sector 2024 Update, in which we dis...

Market Overview  EKHO EMFD HELI ESRS ORHD ACGC ALCN CCAP DOMT EGAS Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA , CFTe

The Fed will conclude its two-day meeting today, expected to leave interest rates where they are in December in response to signs that inflation continues to slow. The government is considering granting a golden license to investors in the healthcare sector, in an attempt to facilitate the work of private companies. Minister of Supply revealed Egypt’s reserve stock of some strategic commodities, i...

Market Overview  ARAB EKHO EKHOA DOMT SPMD Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

 The Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SFE) is gearing up for new sales of state-owned companies in 1Q24. The privatization program will expand to include companies working in the infrastructure and financial services sectors. Two of five LNG shipments destined for Europe are being prepared to leave Egypt within a week, government officials have reportedly said. The Oil Ministry plans to export all five sh...

Market overview  COMI FWRY PHDC ORHD Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Annual urban inflation rate declined further in November to 34.6% from 35.8% in October, while monthly inflation accelerated to 1.3% in November from 1% the month before. Core inflation fell to 35.9% YoY in November from 38.1% the month prior. Meanwhile, monthly core inflation fell to 1% from 1.8%. All businesses pricing goods and services in foreign currency will now have to settle their VAT dues...

Market Overview  Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

The international reserves at the CBE inched up by USD71 million to record USD35.17 billion in November. The Managing Director of the IMF expects the fund to increase the value of the loan provided to Egypt due to the impact of external factors on its economy.  The Emirati energy company Mubadala is seeking to inject new investments in Egypt. The new investments will be in energy and decarbonizati...

Market Overview  COMI CIEB HRHO EKHOA BINV FWRY EAST ABUK

Egypt’s trade deficit increased by 10.3% to reach USD3.24 billion in September compared to USD2.84 billion in the same month last year. The government is looking to wrap up the Wataniya stake sale within a month or two maximum, Planning Minister Hala El Said said. The government raised the estimated subsidies for petroleum products in FY 2023/2024 by about 9% to EGP130 billion, due to new higher o...

Market Overview 

CAPMAS is expected to release inflation figures for November on Sunday, 10 December. We expect annual urban inflation to cool further to c.34% YoY benefiting from the accommodative base effect. Egypt's PMI rose to 48.4 in November from 47.9 in October indicating a modest decline in the health of the non-oil private sector. Besides, business confidence fell to lowest level in series history. T...

Market overview  COMI ACGC ARAB  EDBM EFIH OIH GBCO