Al Ahly Pharos

Market Overview  Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

*Key news articles for today* What are the key conclusions from the different exchange rate scenarios that the market can possibly think of and their impact on FVs?  ORHD, EKHOA, AMOC, ESRS, ORAS, SUGR, and SWDY's current market prices do not reflect the expected movements in the exchange rate as much as other stocks have demonstrated. They still possess an upside from the current prices, eve...

Market Overview  COMI ADIB CIEB ISPH

Egypt's PMI recorded 48.1 in January, down from 48.5 in December. The government has formed a committee to look into reducing the long list of taxes, customs, and fees imposed on goods and services. The EGP strengthened slightly against the greenback for the second day in a row to reach 56-55 against the USD in the parallel market, compared to the EGP70 rate. The government has prepared a lis...

COMI MASR PHAR ISPH JUFO prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The CBE decided to raise overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and main operation rate by 200bps to 21.25%, 22.25%, and 21.75%, respectively, citing sustained inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.  An IMF mission team visited Cairo during January 17-February 1, to conduct discussions toward the completion of the first and second reviews of Egypt’s reform program supported...

Market Overview  PHAR MFPC ORHD ORAS EMFD ATQA prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key news articles for today* The CBE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is meeting today to decide on interest rates for the first time in 2024. We reiterate our view that the MPC might prefer to keep rates unchanged, as long as stability still prevails on the currency front. Inflation readings have been capitalizing on favorable base effect recently. Besides, we believe any possible hike wou...

Market Overview 

*Key news articles for today* The government is reportedly nearing an agreement with the IMF that would take the package to USD7-8 bn over three years, with USD700 mn disbursed up front after two in-process reviews are wrapped up. The IMF has downgraded its fiscal year 2023-2024 growth forecast for Egypt to 3.0% from October’s projection of 3.6%. 12-month EGP Non-Deliverable Forward (NDFs) surged...

Market Overview  SWDY ORHD CCAP ECAP HRHO Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Key news articles for today* The government is working to clone the expat car import initiative for real estate purchases. The initiative could see the government refund 80% of the property price to the buyers in EGP over an 8-year period. This is less than the 100%-over-10-years initially proposed. The expat car-for-FX initiative is expected to get orders with a total of USD2 bn from its first tw...

Market Overview  BINV ORAS GBCO COMI ADIB ABUK MTIE RMDA Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The CBE's MPC is meeting on Thursday, February 1st, to decide on interest rates for the first time in 2024. We reiterate our view that the MPC might prefer to keep rates unchanged as long as stability still prevails on the currency front. Inflation readings have been capitalizing on favorable base effect recently. Besides, we believe any possible hike would be of little benefit compared to it...

- Market Overview  - ABUK - ORAS - HRHO - MTIE - MENA  Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

HDBK| A Blend of Two Sectors Supported by Macro Backdrop HDBK ’s (FV: EGP65.00, OW) real estate segment along with the diversified bank’s investments keep delivering high earnings growth that sometimes compensates for any relative weakness in commercial banking operations. The potential demerger of the stock into banking and real estate could unlock its upside potential. The bank enjoys the highes...

Market Overview 

Egypt’s budget deficit rose to 5.51% of GDP between July and November 2024 from 3.37% during the same period last year. The Egyptian government has pledged to pay EGP 1.4 billion annually, covering the real estate tax for the industrial, poultry, and animal production sectors until the end of 2026. The Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) has inked five framework agreements with private industrial pl...

Market Overview 

Maersk has reshuffled routes citing risks to seafarers and cargo on Red Sea. Red Sea disruptions, surging Chinese demand, and supply outages are boosting competition for oil supplies that do not have to transit via the Suez Canal, Reuters reported. French electrical equipment manufacturer Schneider Electric discussed potential electricity, water abstraction and greenhouse projects that rely on sol...

Market Overview  COMI BTFH prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Market Overview  HRHO MFPC CCAP AMOC EKHO ESRS ASCM Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

ORHD| Your USD-Based Asset Pick ORHD (FV: EGP20.38, OW) is one of our top picks in light of the usual rush to real estate as a store of value amid potential EGP depreciation, especially since units and land in El Gouna are priced in USD, and the company’s exposure to incoming tourist arrivals, fueling its recurring income portfolio by virtue of its hotel business and commercial town management bus...

Market Overview  TMGH SKPC DOMT SKPC CIEB ADIB BINV SPMD Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

ETEL| 5G License Granted without Spectrum; Triggers FV upgrade to EGP51/share Telecom Egypt acquired a 5G license from the government yesterday at USD150 million with no spectrum fees. Accordingly, we upgraded our FV for ETEL to EGP51.00 per share up from EGP45.00 per share , given that we had accounted for USD500 million of 5G related capex (instead of USD150 million), assuming USD350 million of...