Al Ahly Pharos

ORHD is a top exposure to an upswing in tourist arrivals Ambitious government targets USD42 billion FDI in FY25/26   PHAR Management Call| Positive vibes for 2025 are confirmed, countdown begins for Eipico 3  

- Market Overview  - EMFD - HRHO - ADIB - CIEB - FWRY Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key fundamental views for today* Strategy| Long EGAL on rebound in Aluminum prices Macro| FY25/26 budget is out and it foresees a plunge in average treasury yields to 16%   Macro| Maersk might transit the SC soon - Positive for USD. Macro | Global commodity prices imply more stability on the fuel front - Positive for inflation, interest rates. EFIH or FWRY? Long both - own the rails and the rider...

- Market Overview  - COMI - EMFD - PHDC - RMDA - ISPH - prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Strategy| Banks are relating on COE compression hopes - keep an eye on SUGR Macro| Tourism on fire in Q1 2025 - Positive for USD SUGR| SUGR is on track for a strong year BTFH 1Q profit is 41% of 2024 record breaking results - A strong BUY ORHD at EGP23.40/share? Is it still a BUY?

Market Overview  Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key fundamental views for today*      Strategy | Macro noise is bullish EGP and step in CSAG + EGAL on Red Sea traffic recovery and aluminum price rally.  Macro | Remittances go the extra mile in Feb- positive for USD COMI 1Q25| on track to meet full year estimates, supported by controlled operating expenses and reduction in provisions.  ETEL| starts 2025 robustly despite debt burden, price perfo...

- Market Overview  - ABUK - EFIH - EGAL - FWRY  - ALCN - prepared by; Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key fundamental views for today*      Strategy | FWRY and EGAL offer value post yesterday's sell-off Macro| Core Inflation up in April, no threat to expected easing path Macro| Restoring normal traffic to the Suez canal might take months Macro| The Government will tap international financial markets before mid-2025 JUFO| ST performance may remain under pressure on plunge in orange juice conc...

Market Overview  prepared by : Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key fundamental views for today* STRATEGY| EGX30 should find support in potential US-China trade deal/India-Pakistan ceasefire/EG sovereign CDS compression MACRO | There is room for 100-200 bps policy rate cut on 22 May post April inflation print MACRO | USD/EGP 2025 outlook remains stable at 51-53 amid strong signs of commitment to IMF program ARCC | Coal and sales mix to drive GPM expansion in...

- Market Overview  - BTFH - PRCL  - OIH - CLHO - prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly stated that the fifth review of the IMF loan program will start within few days, according to local press.               Egypt is committed to paying USD725 million to the IMF during the current month of May, and USD962 million in June, after paying USD1.56 billion during 4M2025. The Madbouly government expects to raise USD4-5 bn from selling stakes in 11 state-owne...

- Market Overview  - Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key news articles for today* Net International Reserves inched up to USD48.14 billion at the end of April, up from USD47.76 billion in March. The ascent is driven by a USD1 billion increase in the value of gold component of reserves, driving the reserves up, despite the lower value of foreign currencies which recorded USD34.32 billion down from USD35.14 billion in March. Trump said the US would s...

- Market Overview  - BTFH - FWRY  - ORAS - TAQA -  ELEC - prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The CBE has released the Balance of Payment (BoP)'s performance report for 1HFY2024/25. Key points are: 1) The overall BoP recorded a deficit of USD503 million in 1HFY2024/25, and 2) The current account (CA) deficit has surged by 15% YoY to c. USD11.1 billion.  A team from the International Monetary Fund will begin the fifth review of the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement in Cairo this week....

- Market Overview  - CSAG - ORWE - ALCN - ETEL - Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe 

*Key news articles for today* Abu Dhabi wealth fund ADQ-owned AD Ports Group has inked a 50-year renewable usufruct agreement with the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) to develop and operate an industrial and logistics zone spanning 20 sqkm in East Port Said.   Net foreign assets in Egypt’s banking sector increased for the third consecutive month to USD15.04 billion in March, up c. 47.5% from Feb...

- Market Overview  - HELI - BTFH - PHDC - APSW - ETEL - Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Tourist arrivals rose 25% y/y in 1Q25 to 3.9 million. Tourism minister expects the 5% y/y increase in 2024 to be followed by an 8% y/y increase in 2025. The House of Representatives will start discussing amendments to the Old Rent Law today. The IMF said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook that “economic activity is expected to pick up but remain modest” this year in Egypt. According to IMF da...

- Market Overview  - COMI - ALCN - RMDA - ETEL - OFH - Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key news articles for today* Egypt is having to increasingly look to debt to bridge the budget deficit and repay its debt obligations, with the government financing gap in the next fiscal year’s draft budget up by over 25% to EGP 3.6 tn. The widening shortfall is attributed to a fall in non-tax revenues coupled with increased social spending.   The days of investors trudging from government offic...

Market Overview  Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

China’s Wu’an Xin Feng has kicked off construction on its planned USD1.7 bn integrated industrial complex in Ain Sokhna’s Industrial Zone, the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) said in a statement. The two-phase complex being built by the company’s Egyptian arm Xin Feng Egypt Steel will be completed over a five-year period and create 8k direct jobs. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)...