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DAVOS WEF U.S. executives in Davos see a Trump victory in 2024, and no cause for concern — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   — DAVOS WEF U.S. executives in Davos see a Trump victory in 2024, and no cause for concern KEY POINTS Both publicly and privately, U.S. executives said at Davos they weren’t concerned if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election. Banking leaders, in...

Trump Touts Endorsements From Global Dictators His most consistent belief is that authoritarian rulers know best. — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Trump Touts Endorsements From Global Dictators His most consistent belief is that authoritarian rulers know best. Donald Trump has flitted erratically from one position to another on a variety of political beliefs, but he has he...

Ben Shapiro: “If you want Donald Trump not to screw with the elections anymore and you think he's really gonna screw with the elections, you ought to vote for Donald Trump” Shapiro: “Then he'll be in for another term, and then he'll be done” — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Ben Shapiro: “If you want Donald Trump not to screw with the elections anymore and you t...

How Not to Save Democracy Nicolas Guilhot — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- How Not to Save Democracy Nicolas Guilhot Last spring, the Democratic congressman Jamie Raskin, a member of the January 6 Committee, was spotted with a copy of Sallust’s Bellum Catilinae. It was the new Princeton edition, translated by Josiah Osgood, which comes with a new title, How to Stop a Consp...

Biden Wins the GOP Iowa Caucus Now he has to beat Donald Trump, the rival he helped pick. Invoking Hitler isn’t helping. — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Biden Wins the GOP Iowa Caucus Now he has to beat Donald Trump, the rival he helped pick. Invoking Hitler isn’t helping. https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-wins-the-gop-iowa-caucus-primary-2024-election-trump-relection-po...

THE NATIONAL INTEREST JAN. 10, 2024 ‘Biden Against Democracy,’ The Right’s Favorite Trump Rationale Why the anti-anti-Trump right loves Trump’s message. — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- THE NATIONAL INTEREST JAN. 10, 2024 ‘Biden Against Democracy,’ The Right’s Favorite Trump Rationale Why the anti-anti-Trump right loves Trump’s message. ne of Donald Trump’s most consistent...

Other Distribution Models — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Other Distribution Models There are myriad distributions to account for all sorts of problems and uncertainties. We will explain a few of these here, but feel free to ignore this part if you find it too technical. Another famous one is the Poisson distribution—so-called after the 19th century French mathematician,...

Chapter 5: What’s Math Got To Do With It? The Power of Probability Distributions — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Chapter 5: What’s Math Got To Do With It? The Power of Probability Distributions Overview “Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation.” —Pierre-Simon Laplace A “probability distribution” is one of the most significant concepts ever de...

After Laplace — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- After Laplace Before Bayes’ resurgence, the “central limit theorem” stole the show, and authorities started collecting data on everything, the opinion that probability could be subjective sounded specious and non-rigorous. John Stuart Mill argued that probability was ignorance, coined into science. However, some scientists sti...

The Formulation of Bayes’ Theorem — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- The Formulation of Bayes’ Theorem Don’t be put off by the esoteric appearance of the following equations. At first glance, you might feel like you’ve been sent back to an incoherent algebra class, but understanding Bayes’ theorem is likely to be easier than you think. Bayes’ theorem is formulated as follows...

Frequentist or Bayesian? — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Frequentist or Bayesian? The most popular definition of probability, and arguably the most intuitive, is the frequentist one (also known as frequentism). According to frequentists, an event’s probability is defined as the limit of the event’s frequency in a large number of trials. What does this mean? Let’s go back...

Chapter 4: Probability: To Bayes or Not To Bayes? — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Chapter 4: Probability: To Bayes or Not To Bayes? Overview “Life is a school of probability.” —William Bagehot What is probability? If you’re not a data scientist, you likely have an intuitive understanding of probability from school lessons or based on common sense. For many events, it is i...

Occam’s Razor, Space Invaders, and Lizard People — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Occam’s Razor, Space Invaders, and Lizard People “Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some thing...

Chapter 3: Swans and Space Invaders — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Chapter 3: Swans and Space Invaders Overview “Mediocristan is where we must endure the tyranny of the collective, the routine, the obvious, and the predicted; Extremistan is where we are subjected to the tyranny of the singular, the accidental, the unseen, and the unpredicted.” —Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The...

The First Black Swan — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- The First Black Swan “The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know.” ―Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Let’s say that there’s a new exotic creature that has appeared in the realm of zoology, called a “swan.” This is pretty interesting—no one has ever h...

Chapter 2: Truth, Logic, and the Problem of Induction — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Chapter 2: Truth, Logic, and the Problem of Induction Overview “If it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic.” ―Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking-Glass Imagine life in an ancient world. You are a hunter-gatherer. Sometimes your food...

Not All Uncertainty Is Created Equal — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Not All Uncertainty Is Created Equal A good way to start talking about uncertainty is to address the heterogeneous kinds of uncertainty. The first thing we must understand is that uncertainty can come in different shapes and sizes. For example: We face uncertainty about the future. For example, what will...

Chapter 1: Where Are We Now? A Brief History of Uncertainty — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Chapter 1: Where Are We Now? A Brief History of Uncertainty Overview “Knowledge would be fatal. It is the uncertainty that charms one. A mist makes things wonderful.” —Oscar Wilde, The Picture of Dorian Gray Think about the things in life of which you’re certain. It could be things...

Preface — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Preface Author’s Note to the Curious Reader Uncertainty takes us on a journey through ancient philosophy, to renaissance mathematicians, to modern machine learning practitioners. It discusses how our minds and our brains handle uncertainty, and how and why the uncertainty caused by humans might be unconquerable. It also discusses mo...

Prologue — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Prologue A man in a tribe in 8,000 BC is delighted to have killed a gazelle. However, this happiness is short lived, as the food is barely enough for a family of five. Will he be able to find food the next day? A high school graduate just received a letter from Princeton. She holds up the letter with a mixed sense of anxiety and th...

Tasmanian garden wins prize for world’s ugliest lawn — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Tasmanian garden wins prize for world’s ugliest lawn Winner says people can save water, help animals and free themselves from the tyranny of lawnmowing It is not so much a lawn as a moonscape: pitted craters dug by bandicoots, exhausted tufts of withered yellow grass plucked by wallabies...

The Vinted phenomenon: how one woman sold her clothes – and created a billion-dollar company — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- The Vinted phenomenon: how one woman sold her clothes – and created a billion-dollar company In 2008, Milda Mitkute and a friend set up a website to clear out her closet. It soon grew exponentially. Now Vinted has 16 million UK users and is the firs...

Every day’s a school day: the great-grandmother who goes to primary school — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Every day’s a school day: the great-grandmother who goes to primary school A 92-year-old woman, in an area of India with low literacy rates, is inspiring others to learn how to read and write he age range at Chawli primary school in Bulandshahr, northern India, has b...

‘Greener, cheaper, much warmer’ – heat pump owners laud their new system — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- ‘Greener, cheaper, much warmer’ – heat pump owners laud their new system Report finds users even in Victorian properties and older rural homes are noticing cheaper bills and warmer homes Gillian Woodward, 50, says her house has been “completely transformed for the bett...

Ancestral spirit: can brewing a traditional moonshine help Colombia’s youth avoid gangs? — Today's Amazon Deals - https://amzn.to/3FeoGyg   —- Southern frontlines: Latin America and the Caribbean Ancestral spirit: can brewing a traditional moonshine help Colombia’s youth avoid gangs? Viche, a sugar cane-based drink made by African-Colombian communities for centuries, is slowly gaining legality...