Above Avalon

There was no shortage of writers, pundits, and industry analysts using the iPad’s 10th anniversary las month to give eulogies for the product in terms of its inability to be revolutionary, grab momentum, or even just meet expectations. In episode 165, Neil discusses his perspective on the iPad’s first decade and why we shouldn’t feel bad for the iPad. Additional topics include a different way of l...

We are entering a new chapter in music streaming. In episode 164, Neil discusses how Spotify’s attempt to evolve from a dedicated music streaming service to an audio company ends up reflecting broader changes in the music streaming space. Additional topics include Spotify earnings, the music streaming war between Spotify and Apple Music, the problem with Spotify’s current business, roadblocks / ad...

In addition to being a sales success, the Apple Watch has ushered in a paradigm shift in computing. In episode 163, Neil discusses how the Apple Watch is fundamentally changing the way we use technology. Additional topics include paradigm shifts, Apple Watch sales, Apple’s new Apple Watch Connected initiative, stationary smart speakers as extensions of existing products, and Neil’s new framework f...

At the start of a new year, there is less value found in coming up with predictions than there is in looking at questions facing the company. In episode 162, Neil goes over his list of questions for Apple in 2020, and the discussion culminates with one overarching question that covers Apple’s largest challenge and opportunity. Additional topics include why predictions contain so little value, the...

Something has clearly changed when it comes to the way Wall Street is treating AAPL. For the first time with Tim Cook as CEO, Apple shares are trading at a premium to the overall market. In episode 161, Neil discusses how changing behavior as it relates to passive versus active investing may be creating a type of perfect storm for AAPL shares. Additional discussion topics include Apple’s valuation...

Apple’s ability to grab monopoly-like share of industry profits isn’t a result of there being an Apple Tax. Rather, it's a byproduct of Apple following a design-led product strategy that ultimately marginalizes industries. In episode 160, Neil discusses the theory behind the “Apple Tax,” Apple’s pricing strategy, and why the days of there being an Apple Tax ended years ago. Additional topics inclu...

Apple is turning AirPods into a platform for what comes after the App Store. AirPods will augment our environment by pushing intelligent sound. In the first episode of Season 6, Neil goes over how AirPods have evolved from an iPhone accessory into the early stages of a platform well positioned to reshape the current app paradigm for the wearables era. Additional topics include the AirPods Pro laun...

How did Fitbit go from being considered the wearables leader to viewing a $2.1B acquisition as its best hope for shareholders to recoup any value? What led Fitbit to run out of options as an independent company? In episode 158, Neil discusses how Apple Watch forced Fitbit to sell itself. Additional topics include Google’s acquisition offer for Fitbit, how Apple Watch redefined the wrist wearables...

Apple finds itself amidst another controversy regarding removing HKmap.live from the App Store in Hong Kong. However, Apple is facing a different kind of backlash this time. Episode 157 is dedicated to discussing Neil’s thoughts on Apple doing business in China. Additional topics include Tim Cook’s engagement philosophy, Apple’s tool-making mission, and kowtowing to governments. Receive Neil’s ana...

Content distribution has been a major theme for Apple in 2019. In episode 156, Neil goes over how Apple’s revised content distribution arm is structured. Neil also goes over his estimates for how much revenue and gross profit Apple’s content distribution arm can generate by FY2022. Additional discussion topics include the difference between Apple’s paid content bundles and content platforms, Neil’...

Apple keynotes remain some of the most valuable marketing events in today’s media landscape. Episode 155 is dedicated to going over Neil’s thoughts on the Apple keynote. Discussion topics include the odd criticism facing Apple keynotes, the three primary benefits Apple derives from them, how the Apple keynote has evolved, and areas in which Apple can improve the keynote. Receive Neil’s analysis an...

Naming iPhones is more art than science. In episode 154, Neil shares his thoughts on Apple’s iPhone naming strategy. The episode includes an oral history of iPhone nomenclature followed by a discussion of where Apple can bring iPhone naming in the future. Neil also goes over why the art of naming iPhones even matters when looking at the big picture. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple...

In episode 153, Neil discusses the strategy behind Apple TV+. Additional topics include the Apple TV app, five fundamental issues plaguing the paid video streaming market, Netflix’s business model, and what success in paid video streaming looks like for Apple. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updat...

Apple is the undisputed leader in wearables, and they are pulling away from the competition. In Episode 152, Neil discusses how Apple’s wearables business can be thought of a train gaining momentum. Competitors face declining odds of being able to stop the train. Additional topics include Apple’s wearables performance in 3Q19, wearables as a percent of overall Apple gadget unit sales, Apple wearab...

A different kind of Above Avalon podcast episode - dedicated to discussing why earnings are so intriguing to Neil. After going over the two ways to utilize quarterly earnings, Neil goes over some of his expectations for Apple’s 3Q19 and how Apple is currently facing a financial tug-of-war. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and r...

The recent Jony Ive and Jeff Williams news has been met with mixed reactions. In episode 150, we discuss why the leadership changes neither signify a company moving away from design or hardware nor suggest that management is facing some kind of growth crisis. Upon closer examination, the Jony Ive and Jeff Williams news are byproducts of Apple evolving into a much larger design company. Additional...

Despite there being no discernible change to the grand vision behind Apple’s product development, there does appear to be a noteworthy change in strategy. Episode 149 is dedicated to discussing how Apple’s product strategy has changed from a pull system to a push system. Additional topics include product-related implications raised by Apple’s revised strategy, the Grand Unified Theory of Apple Pro...

Apple has reached a level of ecosystem strength that still hasn’t been fully digested by the marketplace. In episode 148, we discuss Apple’s ecosystem ahead of the company’s developers conference. Additional topics include how I estimated the total number of Apple users, various revenue per user figures for different parts of Apple’s user base, the difference between Apple in 2019 and the 1990s, a...

In episode 147, we take a look at the changing competitive landscape facing the giants (Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft). Comparing the situation to bumper cars, we discuss why Google and Facebook have the slower cars that are no longer able to hide within the traffic. Additional topics include deep dives into three competitive battles in particular: Apple vs. Google, Apple vs. Face...

In what has become an annual trend, Apple uses FY2Q earnings to also update its share buyback authorization and quarterly cash dividend. In episode 146, we preview the changes Apple will likely announce to its capital return program. The discussion begins by going over how Apple has adjusted its buyback pace following U.S. tax reform and why the company will eventually have to cut back on buyback....

At Apple’s recent event at Steve Jobs Theater, the company unveiled its revamped content distribution arm. Episode 145 is dedicated to discussing Apple’s new content distribution services: Apple News+, Apple Arcade, and Apple TV+. Instead of just announcing services for consuming more content, Apple unveiled a strategy for curating content for its user base of a billion people, something that I am...

In recent years, the iPad line has undergone transformational changes. In episode 144, we look at Apple’s broader iPad strategy to add context to the newest updates involving the iPad mini and iPad Air. The episode kicks off with my thoughts on the new devices. The discussion then turns to the three sales phases that have come to define the iPad business over the years. Additional topics include P...

For the first time in 16 years, Apple expects its capital expenditures (capex) to decline during the current fiscal year. Episode 143 is dedicated to discussing capex and how the financial metric provides a different look at how Apple is unique in comparison to its largest peers. Additional topics include defining capex, the theories behind Apple’s declining capex, the dramatic capex shift occurri...

In one word, the smart home has been disappointing. Episode 142 is focused on why the way we think about digital homes is in need of a major reset. After going over my thoughts on the current state of the smart home, we take a closer look at Apple’s vision for the home and why the company is likely looking to revamp its broader home strategy. Additional topics include how Amazon and Google have us...

There’s a remarkable story found with AirPods. Nearly two years after launch, AirPods began to go viral at the end of November 2018. In December, search interest was up 500%. This is unprecedented for an Apple product. In episode 141, we take a deep dive into the AirPods phenomenon and how the product became part of culture. Additional topics include AirPods unit sales, the size of the AirPods use...