Excess Returns

Eric Crittenden joins Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck for a deep dive into trend following and managed futures. They discuss why systematic macro trend investing works, how risk transfer creates a return premium, and how trend can fit inside a diversified all-weather portfolio. Standpoint Funds https://www.standpointfunds.com/ Topics covered: Why trend following can struggle during fast reversals and...

Cliff Asness returns to Excess Returns for a greatest hits tour through some of his most important and entertaining investing ideas. We discuss bubble logic, today’s AI market comparisons, why volatility still matters as a risk measure, private equity “volatility laundering,” international diversification, market timing myths, pulling the goalie, and how machine learning is changing quantitative i...

Ben Carlson joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book Risk and Reward and the biggest lessons investors can learn from market history. We cover how to think about risk, inflation, market timing, bear markets, lost decades, diversification, compounding and why surviving volatility is the key to building long-term wealth. Ben's Book https://amzn.to/4dFHsQz Ben Carlson on X https://x.com/awealthof...

AI is moving from hype to real enterprise adoption, and Gene Munster and Doug Clinton join Excess Returns to explain what that means for investors, technology stocks, energy demand, jobs and the next phase of the AI trade. We discuss why AI may still be early in its bubble cycle, how frontier models like GPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok compare, why AI-powered investing is becoming more practical, and...

Jeremy Grantham joins Excess Returns to discuss The Making of a Permabear, mean reversion, market bubbles, AI, the Magnificent 7, and the long-term lessons investors can take from his career at GMO. We cover why he rejects the simple “permabear” label, how he thinks about valuation and bubbles, why AI may be both transformative and dangerous for investors, and why long-term thinking is so hard but...

Marc Rubinstein joins Excess Returns to explain what private credit, bank earnings, insurance balance sheets, fintech growth, and arbitrage firms reveal about the modern financial system. The conversation covers why private credit risks may not be systemic in the traditional banking-crisis sense, but still matter for investors because of redemption gates, hidden leverage, opaque structures, incent...

First Principles with Andy Constan launches with a deep dive into market bubbles, AI, semiconductor stocks, and the financial conditions that can turn powerful technological change into a dangerous investment regime. Andy explains how bubbles form, why they are almost impossible to time, how today’s AI boom compares to past episodes like 1987, the dot-com bubble, housing, and the bond bubble, and...

Edward Chancellor joins Kai Wu on the latest episode of the Intangible Economy to discuss what financial history and capital cycle theory can teach investors about today’s AI boom. They explore why transformative technologies can still produce terrible investor returns, how overinvestment develops, where anti-bubbles may be forming, and what past episodes like the railway mania, the dot-com bubble...

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX call volume, zero DTE options, dealer gamma, VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings, oil risk, AI CapEx, and why options flows may help explain both the market’s recent melt-up and the potential for a volatilit...

Elena Khoziaeva, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Bridgeway Capital Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss factor investing, small caps, value investing, market concentration, intangibles, passive investing, market neutral strategies, and the role of AI in quantitative investment research. We cover how Bridgeway combines disciplined quantitative models with human judgment,...

This episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers brings together Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel for a deep discussion on long-term stock picking, microcap investing, business quality, AI disruption, management teams, and the behavioral skills that separate great investors from great analysts. They explore why the edge in investing may increasingly come from judgment, presence, relationships, patienc...

This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation targe...

This episode of Last Call breaks down one of the most confusing market environments in recent memory: why stocks continue to rise despite war, oil shocks, and growing macro risks. Through conversations with Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Kevin Muir, and Brent Kochuba, we explore the tension between strong earnings, hidden risks in private credit and global growth, and the powerful role of flows and positi...

This episode explores one of the most important debates in markets today: whether investors are underestimating the risk of higher inflation and overconcentrating in a narrow group of growth stocks. Richard Bernstein of Janus Henderson Investors joins Excess Returns to explain why today’s environment may look more like the inflationary 1960s than the 1970s, what that means for portfolios, and why...

This episode with Chris Davis of Davis Advisors explores how investors should think about risk, valuation, and opportunity in a market defined by high valuations, technological disruption, and major macro shifts. Davis lays out a framework for navigating uncertainty, explains why durability matters more than ever, and shares hard-earned lessons on selling great companies too early. Davis Advisors...

This episode explores how massive structural shifts—AI, deglobalization, and the rise of passive investing—are reshaping markets and what that means for investors. Informed Momentum Company CIO Travis Prentice breaks down why 52 week highs don't mean what you think, the extreme dispersion beneath the surface of the market, why traditional definitions of risk may be flawed, and how investors should...

This episode features Chris Bloomstran of Semper Augustus discussing market concentration, AI capital spending, Berkshire Hathaway, and the risks facing today’s equity investors. The conversation explores whether we are at a secular valuation plateau, how AI investment may reshape returns, and why passive investors may face more risk than they realize. Semper Augustus Investments https://www.sempe...

This episode features David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, breaking down why today’s market may be driven more by valuation excess and investor behavior than fundamentals. He explains why the biggest risks right now are not obvious in headline data, and why the probability distribution for markets may be far more fragile than investors assume. Rosenberg walks through his framework for t...

Brent Donnelly returns to Excess Returns to break down one of the most confusing market environments in years, where policy shocks, volatility, and positioning matter more than traditional fundamentals. He explains why markets can keep rising despite constant bad news, how traders should think about regime shifts, and what actually drives moves across equities, bonds, FX, and gold today. Brent als...

Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab joins Excess Returns to break down how war, an oil shock, and shifting market dynamics are reshaping the investing landscape. She explains why the surface-level strength in markets is misleading, what’s really happening beneath the index, and how investors should think about inflation, the Fed, AI, and the evolving role of retail traders. Follow Liz Ann on Twitter https:/...

This episode features Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer on inflation, war, monetary policy, and the long arc of credit cycles. Grant explains why inflation is ultimately driven by monetary debasement and why war, fiscal policy, and central bank actions may be setting the stage for a more persistent inflationary regime than markets expect. We explore how today’s environment compares to pa...

Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to analyze what’s really driving the market beneath the surface—from options flows and gamma positioning to the c...

This episode of Excess Returns features GMO’s Tom Hancock on how to think about AI as an investment opportunity and what truly defines “quality” in today’s market. The conversation breaks down the AI value chain, challenges common assumptions about where value will accrue, and ties it all back to building durable portfolios in a rapidly changing technological landscape. Tom walks through his “Hype...

This episode of Excess Returns features Jim Paulsen breaking down the current macro environment through a series of powerful indicators, including oil, interest rates, consumer behavior, and market sentiment. The discussion explores whether today’s environment signals a slowing economy—or the early stages of a new bull market hidden beneath the surface. Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify...

This episode of Excess Returns features Tony Wang of T. Rowe Price discussing how investors can identify “inevitabilities” in technology and position portfolios to benefit from long-term innovation trends. The conversation explores AI, semiconductors, and the evolving investment landscape, while also breaking down Tony’s portfolio construction process and how he navigates cycles, valuation, and di...