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Alberta filed its application for a West Coast oil pipeline on July 2nd 2026... It was designated a project of national interest this morning in Fort Mac. On Tuesday the Prime Minister stood in Vancouver and welcomed LNG Canada’s Phase 2 at Kitimat, a $33 billion final investment decision that doubles the facility and ranks as the second-largest single private investment in Canadian history. So in...

Welcome back everyone. Summer’s over, whether we agreed to it or not, and you can feel everyone with impact returning to their desks. It shows up in the inbox, on the timeline, and most of all in the bond market. Market Update📈📉 Warsh gave his Jackson Hole keynote and dropped the pretence: “we have work to do.” Core PCE is running 3.3 percent against a 2 percent target, headline 3.7 on oil, and...

Welcome back everyone. Market Update📈📉 Start with one number that has nothing to do with AI. The 30-year Treasury hit 5.31% this week. That’s the most expensive long-term money since 2007. I was in high school the last time capital cost this much. Canada’s long bond is at levels last seen in 2010, and it’s the same story in Germany, France, and Italy. Everywhere you look in the developed world,...

Welcome back everyone. Two weeks ago I wrote that Thursday was a warning, not the flush. The flush coincidentally came with a face and a situationally ironic name. Leopold Aschenbrenner and his Situational Awareness fund. Market Update📈📉 The AI trade compressed for five straight weeks, names down 40, 50, 60 percent from their highs in a straight line. Meta was down 10 percent on the year at the...

Welcome back everyone. Market Update📈📉 For most of the past year the index has carried an almost built-in AI hedge. When hyperscalers raised capex, the companies receiving the money rallied, because the spending became their revenue. When hyperscalers hinted at spending less, their own stocks rallied on better free cash flow and more room for buybacks. One side could get hurt, but the other side...

Alberta is so back. Stampede wrapped, and while the rest of us were nursing a ten-day social hangover, Alberta quietly had the best economic week it’s had in a long time. Four announcements, potentially more than a hundred billion dollars of investment if they all land. For the first time in my adult life, this province is about to build the entire stack: pull energy out of the ground, use it to m...

Two weeks ago I sat in this chair and told you to stop arguing about whether AI is a bubble and watch two things instead: the bond market, and the war in the Middle East. We got our answer for both. So let’s grade the tape - starting with the one that should humble every expert who opened their mouth this spring, including me. The humble pie nobody’s eating For four months we had a shooting war wi...

For three years the only question anyone asked me was whether AI is a bubble. Is it real, who wins, what inning are we in. I’ve been saying inning three or four the whole time, and I’ll say it again. But it’s the wrong question, and last Friday’s tape is the reason why. Here’s the better one. Where is the money actually flowing inside all of this, and what happens to every high-flying name if the...

Welcome Back. Three meetings shaped the last two weeks. Each one looks like a different story. Each one is actually the same story. The first was Donald Trump inside the Zhongnanhai - the inner compound of the Chinese leadership. Only three other sitting U.S. presidents have ever been invited in. The second was Mark Carney and Danielle Smith shaking hands on the West Coast pipeline framework, with...

Every twenty or thirty years a new general-purpose technology shows up and quietly rewrites the entire economic order. Steam. Electricity. The PC. The internet. Mobile. Every single time, the same pattern plays out. One group adopts early and compounds. Another group waits, calls it a fad, tells themselves their experience makes them immune. By the time the second group looks up from their chosen...

By 2027, Bernie Sanders and his cabal of pessimists are going to be in the streets protesting AI. Blaming it for everything… That's the political tape we're walking into. The reason isn't ideology. It's economics. We are watching the most consequential technology transition since the industrial revolution play out in real time, and the early returns look exactly like the early returns of the last...

Machiavelli, often considered the father of modern political philosophy, focused heavily on what he called the “effectual truth”—the reality of what actually works, rather than what we wish would happen in an ideal world. He believed that maintaining prosperity requires a clear-eyed understanding of power and a ruthless grasp of human nature. Right now, global markets, international security, and...

Welcome back to the pod, everyone. Todays episode covers the following 4 topics: * Canadian Jobs, Liberal majority and the Mark Carney performance review. * Market structure and positioning * War in Iran * Open Ai Shifts focus to the enterprise as LLMs prove they aren’t just a commodity. Market Update📈📉 Asset prices don’t make their biggest moves because of fundamentals. They move because of pos...

"The world has always been ending - and yet here we are." - Morgan HouselUS and Israeli strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader. Oil spiked 40% in 10 days. The Strait of Hormuz - the chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply - is in chaos. Flights grounded. Shipping rerouted. Headlines screaming. And the question I keep hearing is: "Should I be doing something?"Here's the only question we shoul...

Panic in the stock market rarely comes from crazy ideas. It usually comes from taking a perfectly logical premise, drawing a straight line into the future, and entirely forgetting that human beings are involved. Over the weekend, a bearish report by Citrini Research went viral, sending shares of IBM, DoorDash, and Visa plummeting. The thesis was terrifyingly simple: Artificial Intelligence is goin...

Most people treat their health like an old car: they ignore the bumps and bruises until the smoke starts pouring out of the hood. In our post modern world of aesthetic refinement and high-performance business, we’re seeing a radical shift in how people treat their health. The Repair model is dying; the Optimization model is taking over. I recently sat down with Raj Dhillon , a 20+ yr veteran of re...

If you only looked at your crypto or software stocks this week, you probably think the sky is falling. But if you zoom out, the Dow just hit 50,000 and Europe is at all-time highs. This isn't a market crash, it's a changing of the guard. * The Market Regime: From “US Tech Dominance” to “Global Industrial/Breadth.” * The Tech Regime: From “SaaS Middle Game” to “AI Endgame” (Atoms & Energy). * The G...

In a healthy bull market, you don't usually see people rushing to buy toothpaste and condom stocks. But right now, Consumer Staples are crushing the S&P 500, and Financials are breaking down. The "tape" is guilty until proven innocent—and Mark Carney just gave us the verdict on Canada's future, too. Market Update📈📉 The “Guilty” Tape The burden of proof has shifted. In a healthy bull market, you...

Listen on Apple , Spotify , or Google Podcasts . 2026 Predictions📈📉 Todays newsletter is for forward guidance and optimism. Since my conversation with Mel last week, Ive had some time to build a list of predictions I have for the coming year. * Alberta Votes on their separation referendum and its not even close. While the rhetoric and fiscal considerations of the vote will become a hot issue in...

Welcome back! This week were talking politics and pipelines. Keep reading below for our thoughts. Or tune into the podcast for a deep dive. Pipeline MOU Update📈📉 The “Alberta-Ottawa Pipeline MOU” signals a fundamental shift in the Canadian economy from energy confrontation to energy collaboration . By linking the approval of a major infrastructure project (the pipeline) directly to decarbonizati...

Listen on Apple , Spotify , or Google Podcasts . Market Update📈📉 Quick Hits: * Asset Class Reversal: We are witnessing a historical anomaly. Gold (+54%) is currently the best-performing major asset of 2025, while Bitcoin (-1%) sits as the worst. This is the direct inverse of 2013 and a dynamic we haven’t seen before in a calendar year. * S&P 500 Technicals: The S&P 500 closed below its 50-day mo...

Listen on Apple , Spotify , or Google Podcasts . Budget Update📈📉 Welcome back. It was a busy week in Canadian political news. We had multiple floor crossings and a brand new Canadian budget to review. Why does this matter? The Canadian budget reveals the priorities, trade offs, and a growing deficit that continues to shape future policy in our country. A great infographic from Canoe financial: R...

Quick note on podcast cadence: This coming Friday we will have a special podcast release talking about the Canadian Budget. Tune in on LinkedIn if you want to hear our views. Markets Good, some bad, and a little bit of ugly We’re getting a lot of emails and calls about whether were due for a bear market. And It’s always important to bring back the conversation to time horizon. Some folks are short...

TLDR: Listen on Apple , Spotify , or Google Podcasts . Market Update📈📉 Welcome back. The indexes barely sneezed last week, and the high-momentum flyers from quantum computing, nuclear, space, drones, rare earth metals, robots, crypto, and AI pulled back 10-40%. The price action in momentum stocks is often a precursor of what might happen in the general market. Timing it is the tricky part as sec...

Happy Thanksgiving everyone, If you don’t have any video of your family spending time together over the Canadian Thanksgiving holiday, give Sora a try. Listen on Apple , Spotify , or Google Podcasts . Market Update📈📉 Okay, so while I’m having my philosophical moment about AI, the markets have been telling their own, more straightforward story. Let’s look at the numbers for the last quarter. Sept...