HyperChange

Tesla reports record Q1 production of 103K vehicles, and record Q1 deliveries of 88K. Model Y production is scaling, and Shanghai Gigafactory output keeps climbing. These numbers were far better than my estimates, and signal Tesla's business was thriving before the economic shutdown. Here's my take on the delivery & production report.

I'm conservatively expecting Tesla will deliver ~65,000 cars in Q1, growing about 5% year over year. This factors in the factory shutdown at the end of March, and the macro economic crisis that has been unfolding. I've updated my full year delivery estimates to just 350,000. I hope I'm being too negative, but am preparing for the worst. In this video I show how this level of deliveries will impact...

Is Peloton selling a $2,245 exercise bike? Or democratizing home fitness? A little bit of both. This dynamic business model combination of luxury hardware and premium software streaming classes, is disrupting the fitness industry. I'm a new Peloton shareholder, and think the company has huge potential to expand into new products (like the Tread and rowing machine), lower prices, and expand into di...

GM and Ford reported huge (and growing) losses in Q4 2019, before the economic crisis began. Both companies have suspended 2020 guidance and have drawn down $15B+ on credit lines. Are we witnessing a slow motion implosion/bankruptcy for America's two largest automakers? It looks like it. Reuters reports, both companies are planning to make 320,000 EVs for North America in 2026 (combined!) ... that...

I've been adding to my Bitcoin position in the past week. The cryptocurrency currently trades at a network value of $120B, or just about 4.5% of the $2.7T it moves annually. This compares to fintech companies like Paypal, that trade at ~14% of annualized money moved. I think the long-term thesis for Bitcoin to become digital gold, and be worth several $T in network value is more intact than ever....

S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2020 are dropping rapidly, as analysts price in the impact of this unprecedented economic crisis. Estimates have fallen more than 4% in just the past month, and I think they will fall another 10% (at least) next month. Right now, my rough guesstimate for 2020 S&P 500 EBIT per share is $100 ... about 39% lower than they were in 2019 (~$163). What is your guess...

Today on Twitter Donald Trump gave the go ahead to Tesla, GM and Ford to begin manufacturing ventilators, to deal with a potential shortage. Tesla has significant experience building HVAC systems in house, since the days of its original roadster (2008), as well as 'BioWeapon Defense Mode' for the Model X. I think this is an awesome story, and is a reason I'm proud to own Tesla stock!

Tesla has released an official 'Operational Update' about dealing with the current economic crisis. The company is shutting down both its Fremont, CA and Buffalo, NY factories for an indefinite period of time (my guess is at least two weeks). Tesla says it has plenty of cash on hand to "successfully navigate an extended period of uncertainty." I think the silver lining to all of this Tesla news is...

Zoom stock is up 82% in 2020, outperforming nearly every asset in the world. Can this recent video conference IPO live up to the hype of its $40B valuation? In this video, I analyze Zoom's financials, growth rate, and what the long-term potential will be if Eric Yuan's vision is realized. What are your thoughts on Zoom?

Elon Musk offered to help make medical supplies for US hospitals (like ventilators, masks, etc) and Mayor de Blasio is taking him up on the offer. After a long twitter exchange (prompted by Nate Silver), it appears as if Tesla/SpaceX are reaching out to the New York City government and may supply them with direly needed medical equipment. I think this is an awesome initiative by Elon, and could be...

The WSJ reports that US airlines are looking for a ~$50B bailout/stimulus package in this midst of this economic turmoil. This has become a hot topic, as airlines spent tens of billions buying back their own stock during the past decade. Now they are turning to taxpayers to get them out of this rut .. when they should have been fortifying their balance sheets. What do you think? Is this fair? Shou...

The market continues to free-fall as concerns mount about how a prolonged shutdown will impact the global economy. In this video I explore what will happen to Tesla's financials if a multi-quarter slowdown in the global economy unfolds. Will Tesla need more capital? Will they be able to survive?

Tesla has reach a production run-rate of 1,000 roofs/week (4MW), for its highly anticipated solarglass roof product. At $30K/roof, this implies a revenue run-rate of $1.5B+, and is likely growing rapidly. This milestone should accelerate energy generation (solar) deployment growth for Tesla in the coming quarters.

Waymo has partnered with Transdev to hire a fleet of drivers for its 'robotaxi' network. This deal, potentially in the hundreds of millions, signals Waymo is falling behind on its ambitious plans for Waymo One, its self-driving service. Waymo just raised $2.25B from outside investors at a $30B valuation, another sign Alphabet is distancing itself from the project. I still think Tesla is winning th...

Sean Mitchell has been on the ground working to pass bill 167, which would allow electric vehicle makers to sell direct to consumers in the state of Colorado. This has gained major traction, and will make it easier for startups like Tesla & Rivian to compete in the state. If this is successful, this could cause a domino effect and allow Tesla to sell direct in other states where its been previ...

Elon Musk has confirmed via Tweet that Tesla is scouting locations for a "central US" gigafactory to build the Cybertruck & Model Y (for the east coast). Initially rumored to be in Texas, reports also indicate Nashville is in the running for this new location. My personal guess is the Austin, TX area will be selected ...

Twitter has come to an agreement with activist funds Elliott Management and Silver Lake Partners, that will keep Jack Dorsey on as CEO. Twitter is also issuing 2020 guidance for 20% mDAU growth, and accelerating revenue growth. Additionally, the company is launching a $2B share buyback. What are your thoughts on these changes??

Cash App posted Q4 2019 revenue of $361M (+147%) year, and is on pace to post more than $1.5B+ in 2020 revenue. Recent launches of stock investing (with no minimums) and international payments show a rapid pace of innovation & represent exciting new revenue opportunities. Cash App is quietly becoming a digital bank. With 24M MAU's (growing 60%), this is poised to be a growth driver for Square...

Today GM held an 'EV Day' to announce its plans for electrifying it's vehicle lineup. I commend the effort ... but the presentation was full of boring/meaningless business lingo and very short on any details about pricing, timing, specifications or profitability.  I'm eagerly awaiting details on the Bolt EUV, Cadillac Lyric & Hummer EV that should be released in the coming months ...

According to tweets by Elon Musk, Tesla is poised to release a new 'Plaid' Model S sometime later this year. This new tri-motor powertrain/battery design will improve performance and be the 'next generation' of Tesla's technology. I think there is a huge pent of demand for 'Plaid' and Tesla has an opportunity to make billions in incremental gross profit if they price it accordingly.

Elliott Management/Billionaire Paul Singer have reportedly taken a stake in Twitter, and are pushing for Jack Dorsey to be removed as CEO. This is BS. Elliott Management doesn't even use Twitter, and they are completely ignoring the progress Jack has made since returning to Twitter in late 2015. In this video I break down the metrics justifying Dorsey's success and my argument for why he should re...

Interview with Jack Conte, about his journey from creative to CEO/Co-Founder of Patreon. By allowing artists to monetize their work, and build relationships with their closest fans, Patreon is empowering a new generation of creatives. I think the world desperately needs this artistic and creative energy, and Patreon has huge potential to build an incredible business around it. Kevin & I have b...

Lyft shares are down ~37% from their IPO, as losses keep mounting and competitive pressure increases. Revenue growth has slowed dramatically from 100%+ a year ago, to 54% in Q4, to guidance for just 28% in 2020. Will the company survive and be able to fend off Uber? Or is Lyft a sweet acquisition candidate for Google/Waymo ... or even Amazon?

Elon Musk claims Tesla's battery modules are no longer necessary, and hints that cell to pack technology could be the future of batteries. This lines up with an October 2019 "aggregated battery system" patent filed by Tesla Cell Engineer Kevin Matthews. Additionally, Tesla is rumored to be working with CATL on a new battery supply agreement. In late 2019, CATL announced new cell to pack technology...

Snap grew its userbase 17% in 2019 to 218M DAUs, revenue hit $1.7B (+45%), and profitability improved. What's next for 2020? If Snap can continue to grow its engagement, it will get very close to profitability. I'm waiting for a new version of Spectacles to be released, with more AR features. Do you think Evan Spiegel can compete with Instagram and TikTok?