Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Despite the prospect of more RBA rate hikes as soon as September, the Australian property markets are moving into the spring selling season as new stock comes on market, and vendors drop their price expectations. The market, currently in a downturn following three interest rate rises, while changes to negative gearing, CGT and SMSF purchasing … Continue reading "Aussies Capitulate To Lower H...

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Remembering that September and October typically are the worse months for equity markets, it was no surprise to see significant market volatility across the week, given the … Continue reading "Looking Into The Jaws Of A Recession Or Worse?"

Sad to say, but the likelihood of significantly higher inflation, and higher interest rates globally, and locally are being cemented as we speak. And are we seeing the growing pains to a new financial system? On top of the continued attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz, which has constructed oil supplies and lifted … Continue reading "The Inflation Rocket Just Got Ignited: Even Mor...

Today we step through our latest scenarios and stress analysis, and consider the future trajectory of home prices, and rents in the light of the latest news and data. Whilst some are suggesting a rebound in (some) prices later next year, the likelihood of more RBA rate hikes in the spring suggests a different path. … Continue reading "What Happens Next With Australian Property?"

We had fresh inflation warning from both Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Sarah Hunter and RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser in the past couple of days, ahead of the Monetary Policy Meeting at the end of the month. And frankly it sent signals to the markets that they are likely to raise in interest … Continue reading "Another Crunch Incoming As More Rate Rises Are On The Cards…"

In edit of my live show CEO of Alcove Mortgage Brokers Chris Bates and I discuss the current property market trends, with a focus on recent changes to the mortgage market. With lower applications at the moments, are rate discounts a thing, or are the upcoming likely RBA rate hikes forcing rates higher? How should … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: What Falling Prices Means For M...

Tonight we look at the new One Nation policy on superannuation, and discuss the other policy areas which will be contested at the next election. We also pull apart the latest news on Bathla, and other property company failures, and the implications for people trapped in the foreclosure processes. Meantime time property prices continue to … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Ev...

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. In the week that the UN voted for the Correct the Map” resolution, which replaces the traditional world map with one that more accurately reflects the size … Continue reading "Mirror Mirror: Markets Wrestle With A Matter Of Perspective...

Markets are going crazy, gold is being repatriated as bond yields rise. Inflation remains high partially stoked by AI investment, while ordinary people seem to be left behind, so what to do? Well, I caught up with sound money advocate Lynette Zang, who is the Founder and CEO of Zang Enterprises. We spoke about the … Continue reading "The Future Is Genuinely In Our Own Hands: With Lynette Zan...

Another chat with journalist Tarric Brooker as we go though the latest slides and data. How come politicians are using soft toys to explain the property market? Why are we seeing so much spin? What is the real data telling us? Check out Tarric’s charts here: https://x.com/AvidCommentator/status/2095404318128247133 http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service … Continue...

Various bank economists had predicted that the economy would slide back into a per capita recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP per capita terms, ahead of Wednesday’s Q2 2026 national accounts release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). But in an upward surprise, the good news was that … Continue reading "Let’s Give The Australian GDP A Spin!...

An update today on our campaign to save regional communities across the country, with Robbie Barwick, National Chairman; National Research Director; 2025 Senate Candidate for Victoria from the Australian Citizens Party. https://citizensparty.org.au/ You will not believe the latest porkies being told… unbelievable… http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here:...

This week we dive into the latest spin from the Federal Government on property, pull apart the Bathla story, and look across the construction sector more broadly, as well as the latest numbers. Some are panicking, but others are more able to digest the current uncertainty. If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property...

Over the past week we have seen more indicators that the housing market is battling with a storm of issues, from rising interest rates, yes the RBA will have to hike further, higher inflation, which is causing the RBA to move, and higher bond yields signifying higher borrowing costs for households, businesses and the government. … Continue reading "The Property Dominos Are Continuing To Fall...

Data today reinforces our view of more cash rate hikes are in the wind in Australia, as household spending data suggests households are just fine. Today we look at the data, highlight some issues with the interpretation, and consider that case for more hikes, adding to the pressure on some households. My base case is … Continue reading "Are Households Really Splashing The Cash?"

Once again Australians have been hit by a serious telecommunications outage which started Wednesday morning, at 4:20am triggered Telstra says by a “software issue” when a human was working on their system. Rather opaquely they said that a particular node restarted as work was happening on it, and as it restarted a software glitch was … Continue reading "What Happens When The Digi...

Earlier in the week I highlighted that rental stress across Australia reach a eye-watering 75.5% of those who are currently renting, according to my rolling surveys. This means that more than 2.35 million households who are renting have a cash flow problem. It is a national disgrace, and is probably the most symbolic aspect of … Continue reading "The Sheer Pain Of Renting In Australia!"

Specifically, recent energy cost increases could still flow through to consumer prices, Non-tradable inflation remains high, with the risk that administered (i.e. government-set) price inflation could remain strong, Firms could become more sensitive to cost increases against a backdrop of elevated inflation and lift prices in response; Firms might also be inclined to slip through … Continue...

In this live show we examined the latest from our survey and modelling, as we looked at household finances across post codes to end June 2026. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our &#82...

Property Insider Edwin Almeida and I kick around the latest data on property, and pull back the curtain to reveal what is really going on. Truth is there are many agendas out there, pulling in different directions. From migration, to demand, and from building construction to supply, these factors are part of a bigger puzzle. … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Propert...

In the second show in the current series, we examine the DFA mortgage and rental stress results to the end of June 2026, as pressure on households intensifies. But not all post codes are behaving the same. See the first part on our scenarios here: https://youtu.be/gmK6CiQRIv8 The third part will be our live show on … Continue reading "Australia’s Perfect Housing Storm: Let’s Talk...

Markets were once again all over the place through the week, as Wall Street on Thursday put in a mixed finish, as a slide in Tesla and chip stocks countered a soft June jobs report that dented Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Yet despite the conflicted trading, U.S. stocks ended the holiday-shortened week with gains … Continue reading "Another Topsy-Turvy Week For Markets As Risks Abo...

Today we examine the latest housing price falls data, and with the help of our modelling, look at our price scenarios over the next three years. Further falls are expected, but how deep will they be, and where will they be most significant? This show is the first in a series as we reveal the … Continue reading "Australia’s Perfect Housing Storm: Let’s Talk Scenarios"

Rents are another question, as Rentals continued to be more expensive with basic growth of 0,4% before seasonal adjustments, leading to an annual growth rate of 5.9%, well above wages growth in real terms. Capital city rents have risen by 41.7% or $217 a week over the past 5 years they said. No surprise then … Continue reading "Down, Down (Some) Home Prices Are Down!!"

This is an edit of my live show where we examined the current market, property and household finance dynamics with Investment Management Tony Locantro. Tony offers several financial services, such as investment management, financial planning, stock selection and fundraising. Tony has helped countless investors and organisations with strategic investment strategies over the last two decades. &#8230...