Deep Values

Bearish on Robinhood Markets (HOOD) as of 2026-11-11: -28% Margin of safety. We audit Robinhood's Q3 2026 numbers: $2.25B in free cash flow, a 46% operating margin, zero debt, and the share dilution behind the buybacks. Then we show why a 42.8x P/E and a 17.8% implied growth rate put today's price above our estimated intrinsic-value range. Chapters (0:00) Robinhood Q3 2026 Dossier (0:38) Business...

We run Anthropic's leaked S-1 numbers through a Graham-Dodd lens: 85% inference margins, $100B+ in cash and $500-600B in compute commitments. Then we look at what a trillion-dollar AI valuation leaves for a patient investor's margin of safety before the IPO. Chapters (0:00) Anthropic Deep Value Research (1:59) The Capital-Efficient Compounder (2:37) Selling a Dollar for Ten Cents (3:33) The Capita...

A former Alibaba executive was told to multiply her forecast by seven, and her team hit it. Learn what that hyper-growth era cost her health and her family, and why value investors should audit their own human capital as carefully as a balance sheet. Chapters (0:00) The Economics of Hyper-Growth (0:55) Thesis: Growth's Unfunded Liabilities (2:39) The Scaling Engine (5:21) By the Numbers: The Bull...

Bullish on PayPal (PYPL) as of 2026-11-08: $6.58B Free cash flow TTM. We put PayPal's $6.58B in free cash flow, its 31% share retirement and three DCF scenarios side by side to see whether a 9.3x P/E is a value trap or a real margin of safety. Revenue is growing only 2% and Apple Pay is squeezing checkout, so the cash numbers tell you more than the story the market is telling. Chapters (0:00) PayP...

Deep value research on Microsoft (MSFT) as of 2026-11-07: $190B AI capex plan. A leaked memo shows Microsoft offering buyouts to about 60,000 employees, roughly 27% of its workforce, while planning up to $190B in AI data center spending. We use a Graham-Buffett lens to show what swapping payroll for depreciating hardware means for owner earnings, maintenance capex and the moat. Chapters (0:00) The...

Bearish on Anthropic (ANT) as of 2026-11-06: $431B Fixed compute. We tear down Anthropic's S-1 to show why its $80.7B loss is mostly a non-cash accounting charge, and why $431B in fixed compute commitments matters far more. Then we stress-test the rumored $1.5T valuation with Graham-Dodd math to see whether any margin of safety is left. Chapters (0:00) Anthropic Pre-IPO Diagnostic (0:40) From AI L...

Executive Order 14330 opens the $14 trillion 401(k) pool to private equity just as the average PE deal sits 60% below its 2021 valuation. We compare that mark-to-myth trap with ASML's transparent EUV monopoly, and show why even a wide moat needs a mid-cycle, normalized valuation. Chapters (0:00) The PE Trap and the Ultimate Monopoly (0:43) The Noise vs the Signal (1:47) EO 14330: The Exit Valve (2...

Li Lu argues that the US-China AI race will be decided by where top talent chooses to live and work, more than by compute alone. We use a deep value lens on his thesis, covering a 1951 immigration quota that helped hand China a rare earth monopoly, the 95% of chip fabrication done in East Asia, and why recursive self-improvement in AI could break traditional ways of estimating intrinsic value. Cha...

Mark Cuban says AI hyperscalers are borrowing more than they bring in as cash flow to build data centers, while a one-cent earnings miss can wipe 18% off a stock. We run his warning through a Graham-Buffett filter covering cash flow, cost of capital and moats, and look at what patience means when U.S. interest costs run near $1 trillion a year. Chapters (0:00) Macro Thesis: The Illusion of Value (...

Mohnish Pabrai finds a well-researched stock idea, then gives himself 30 minutes to find a reason to drop it, followed by a 200-question checklist where 40 to 50 questions are about debt. Learn how he separates risk from uncertainty, why he wants his money back in 2 to 4 years, and why his biggest mistake was selling a winner too early. Chapters (0:00) Extreme Unreasonableness (0:37) Three Checks...

Warren Buffett spent decades avoiding complex tech, so why does Berkshire now hold a $28B Alphabet stake that he says isn't even among his favorite businesses? We look at the $400B cash pile, the 4% Treasury hurdle, Google's ROIC, its $150B net cash and its moat to see the logic, and the risks. Chapters (0:00) The $28B Anomaly (1:42) The Catalyst: A Massive Allocation (3:42) The Old vs N...

Ken Griffin says AI is filling in competitive moats with bulldozers, and he compares the GPU build-out to the dark-fiber telecom bust of 2000. We look at what that means for free cash flow, asset lifespans, discount rates and your margin of safety, using a Graham-Buffett lens. Chapters (0:00) The Macro Ledger: AI and Fiscal Reality (1:47) Bulldozing White-Collar Moats (4:43) ROI Tension: Foundatio...

Bill Gates says AI will commoditize both cognitive and physical labor over a 20-year transition, and $40 billion data centers are already being built. We look at which moats get weaker, which ones may get stronger, and what that means for estimating intrinsic value. Chapters (0:00) The 20-Year AI Transition (0:40) From Scarcity to Abundance (1:43) The Numbers and Timelines (4:28) The Engine of Dis...

Using Aswath Damodaran's numbers, we check why the market added $2.5 trillion in the same month the 10-year Treasury jumped to 5.29%, and why AI CapEx is pushing reported earnings well ahead of free cash flow. With the equity risk premium down to 3.70% and payouts at their lowest since 2004, the margin of safety is about as thin as it gets. Chapters (0:00) The AI CapEx Illusion (0:38) The 202...

Memory chipmakers post 80-90% gross margins and trade at two to four times forward earnings, and that cheap multiple may be a textbook cyclical value trap. We follow the money from a $60B gigawatt down to the $20B raw cost underneath and show where margin of safety really sits, and where it doesn't. Chapters (0:00) From Unconstrained Growth to Capital Reality (1:46) How AI Compute Is Financed...

We trace how 75 cents of every AI dollar circles between VC-backed startups and closed-model giants, then add the two liabilities the market ignores: agentic cyber risk and sovereign debt. With French yields above 5% and US deficits worse, the discount rate that anchors every valuation is moving. Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: val...

Steve Eisman's market wrap, read through a Graham-Buffett lens: why CoreWeave's jump to 15% debt yields, Meta's $825B of commitments and SpaceX's $29.6B quarterly capex mean tech is no longer capital-light. With rates stuck high, the fixed-income math now decides which moats survive, from AI data centers to telecom and housing. Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind...

Just 10 stocks drove 60% of 2024's market gains. Passive funds now make up 60% of the market, and the Shiller PE sits at 42. We look at what that means for index-fund diversification, for the AI chip cycle and for three fallen compounders, judged by intrinsic value rather than momentum. Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuatio...

We put Spotify's Q3 2026 numbers through a Graham-Dodd and Buffett audit: a record 33% gross margin, $3.46B in trailing free cash flow, no funded debt, and a two-stage DCF range from $345 to $601 per share. With shares near $583, we show what the market already prices in and how far that sits from a 30% margin of safety on conservative assumptions. Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers b...

Netflix just posted a 34.6% operating margin and $11.3B of trailing free cash flow, yet the stock fell to $65 on a $300M ad-revenue guidance trim. We run the Graham-Dodd scorecard and four DCF scenarios to see where that price sits against an estimated intrinsic-value range. Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cas...

Kaspi trades at 8x earnings, yet a textbook DCF says it is worth either $0.75 or $97,596 a share. See why deposit-funded fintechs break free cash flow models, what Q2 2026 really shows, and which valuation methods actually fit. Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on...

📲 Apps for Modern Value Investor DeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608 Buffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now? https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614 Bubble Watch (Android) — the same market gauge for Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventu...

📲 Apps for Modern Value Investor DeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608 Buffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now? https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614 Bubble Watch (Android) — the same market gauge for Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventu...

📲 Apps for Modern Value Investor DeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608 Buffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now? https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614 Bubble Watch (Android) — the same market gauge for Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventu...

📲 Apps for Modern Value Investor DeepValues (iOS) — Buffett-style intrinsic value for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608 Buffett Indicator (iOS) — is the whole market overpriced right now? https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614 Bubble Watch (Android) — the same market gauge for Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventu...