War & Peace

The threat posed by nuclear weapons is changing and policy-makers are struggling to keep up. As the Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference approaches, it is clear that the nuclear security field needs a new way of thinking. Nuclear-weapon states are expanding their arsenals and non-proliferation efforts have faltered: it is estimated that Tehran’s nuclear breakout time is now less than a month...

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the Russian troop buildup on the Ukrainian border, from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire! . Olga Oliker, our War & Peace host and Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia director, and Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst, join Hold Your Fire! host and Interim President Richard Atwood to discuss what led to the crisis. These include the move...

On 10 November 2020, a Russian-brokered ceasefire put an end to a devastating war in Nagorno-Karabakh that killed some 7,000 people. But it did not bring peace. The year since has seen the situation grow increasingly uneasy. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have fortified their military positions along the state border and continue to exchange deadly fire: mid-November saw the worst escalation of fight...

After sixteen years at Europe’s helm, Angela Merkel is stepping down from power. The federal election in September also marked an end to the long-term hold her political party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), had had over German politics. Merkel’s likely successor, Olaf Scholz, is now looking to forge a “traffic light coalition” between his Social Democratic Party (the SPD, whose trademark c...

Exactly a year ago, in November 2020, an old conflict on the south-western edge of Europe burst back into flames. After almost 30 years of ceasefire, the pro-independence Polisario Front and Morocco went back to battle stations in Western Sahara. European states have so far taken a timid stance in response, preferring not to involve themselves in another intractable conflict. Nonetheless, the new...

In 2015, over a million people fleeing conflict arrived at Europe’s borders. The continent showed itself to be woefully underprepared, struggling to address the unfolding catastrophe at its doorstep: as decision makers wrangled over asylum quotas, a humanitarian crisis escalated to dramatic proportions. Six years later observers fear that “another 2015” could be imminent after Kabul’s fall to the...

The Taliban’s dramatic toppling of the Afghan government prompted much soul-searching in the West. But for those closer to Kabul, anxieties about how the Taliban’s takeover will shape the region’s future are even more acute. Where some see risk, however, others see considerable opportunity. Russia’s position, for one, remains ambiguous: while Moscow seems unlikely to formally recognise the new gov...

As rapidly developing data technology outpaces governance structures and their ability to adapt, the long-term impact of increasingly data-driven economies on security and society remains uncertain. What happens when personal data ends up in the hands of those in power? In the first episode of the third season of War & Peace , Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by Jim Balsillie, co-founder o...

Tensions flared in the eastern Mediterranean in mid-2020 when Turkey sent seismic research ships into waters contested with Greece and the Republic of Cyprus. While neither Turkey nor Greece seeks war with the other, competition over sovereignty and natural resources is reviving long-running geopolitical rivalries. To discuss the various interests at play in their maritime standoff and how actors...

Successive waves of Muslim-origin migrants have fled Russia since the 1990s. While some simply sought a better life, hundreds of thousands left due to conflict or persecution. Jean-François Ratelle, professor at the University of Ottawa, joins Olga and Hugh for an in-depth look at the resulting diaspora across Western Europe, Ukraine and Turkey. Together they unpack Crisis Group’s latest find...

In 2004, the UN Security Council recognised that the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and their means of delivery constitutes a threat to international peace and security. While common discourse has generally normalised the existence and purpose of nuclear weapons, a growing movement within international relations is calling for a world without them. Is a new normal under...

Venezuela’s multifaceted crisis has no solution in sight: from the massive migration problem – the number of Venezuelan refugees surpasses the Syrian crisis this year – to widespread hunger, the need for a regime transition and a shortage of vaccines against COVID-19. What can the European Union (EU) do to push for a sustainable future in Venezuela? In a special episode prepared in collaboration w...

What happens behind closed doors during peace talks? Adam Cooper, senior program manager at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue and host of The Mediator’s Studio , talks to Olga and Hugh about the hidden world of peace diplomacy and how social media has changed it.  Adam shares what he has learnt from talking to seasoned mediators on his podcast, the challenges they face behind the scenes, especi...

Maintaining the balance of power is considered essential to stability and peace. What happens when nuclear weapons enter the equation? Petr Topychkanov, senior researcher at the SIPRI Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-proliferation Program, tells Olga and Hugh that nuclear proliferation in South Asia has lessened the intensity of traditional warfare fuelled by local geopolitics. Together t...

In this episode of Crisis Group's podcast Hold Your Fire! ,  Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s program director for Europe and Central Asia, Olga Oliker, about rising tensions between Russia, on one hand, and Ukraine and Western capitals on the other, over Moscow’s recent military build-up at the Ukrainian border. They talk about the motives behind Russia’s deployments, how...

The Black Lives Matter protests that engulfed the U.S. last year sparked similar anti-racism demonstrations in London, Paris, Brussels and several other cities across Europe. The challenge now is how to channel this newfound momentum into meaningful conversations and concrete changes, both nationally and regionally.  Dr Liliane Umubyeyi, research coordinator at Avocats Sans Frontières, and Dr Amah...

Nuclear weapons sometimes sound like a throwback to another era, but they don’t just remain on stand-by. Nuclear-armed nations are investing heavily in creating more sophisticated and diverse nuclear arsenals.  After the end of the Cold War, NATO, like the U.S. and Russia, significantly reduced its reliance on nuclear weapons and nuclear policy took a back seat. Then came the Russian invasion of C...

Indonesia was the first country to proclaim its independence after the Second World War, setting in motion a significant chapter of post-colonial history by doing so. In his latest book, Revolusi , Belgian cultural historian and prolific author David van Reybrouck examines the Dutch East Indies’ past and places it in a global context. A five-year project spanning over 200 interviews with living ey...

While the threat of imminent nuclear armageddon may not be at the forefront of the average person’s mind today, it was a real, globe-spanning fear not so long ago during the Cold War. Absent the treaties and confidence-building measures developed to mitigate the risk of such an event, U.S. and Soviet civil defense then was totally consumed with the daunting task of planning for the worst. So how d...

Central Asia is no exception to the protests that have emerged with renewed vigour on a global scale, a phenomenon made more visible against the backdrop of COVID-19 restrictions.  Although the grievances driving them are context-specific, deep socio-political divisions and populist leaders are recurring themes, says Dr. Erica Marat. A professor at the U.S. National Defense University and a post-S...

Thirteen years after Kosovo broke away from Serbia to become de facto independent, political inertia continues to stall the largely European-driven dialogue process aimed at reaching an understanding between the two parties and thus securing lasting stability for the region. On the back of our recently published report, “ Relaunching the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue ”, Crisis Group’s Balkans expert Mark...

Ankara’s assertive foreign policy choices delight many at home. But they can puzzle and anger its counterparts as Turkey experiments with increasingly militarised postures in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, the South Caucasus, and the ongoing wars in Libya and Syria. Ambassador Selim Yenel, Turkish ambassador to the EU until 2017 and now president of the Istanbul-based think-tank Global Relations F...

With the international system in major flux as we turn the page on 2020, Ambassador Gérard Araud believes one main thing is clear: 2021 opens a new, more dangerous chapter. A Crisis Group trustee who represented France on the world stage for over three decades, most recently as ambassador to the United States (2014-2019), Araud gives Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope a decidedly skeptical take on the stat...

“I think I should kill you”.  So began one especially fraught encounter in Hugh Pope’s critically acclaimed memoir, Dining with Al Qaeda , now out in an updated edition. He joins Olga Oliker as co-host-turned-guest for this week’s episode to reflect on how his three decades of reporting in the broader Middle East remain relevant for Western readers grappling to understand it today.  Olga and Hugh...

Sir John Sawers, former chief of the British secret service MI6 and Executive Chairman at Newbridge Advisory, joins Olga and Hugh for a dynamic conversation on the changing global balance of power and emerging threats that will shape multilateral diplomacy.  Drawing on 40 years of international service, Sir John describes how Western interventionism has evolved since the early 1990s, the implicati...