Views from Down Underer

Momentous first week for us political observers.  US had its midterm elections that gave Democrats control of Congress and making President Trump a 'lame duck' president for the remaining two years of his administration.  New Zealand held its general election on November 7th. The two legacy parties - National and Labour - only managed to get less that 60 percent of the votes so it is still unclear...

Indonesia's forest burning is creating huge smog problems for its neighbors. What is happening and why it is a problem?  Serious riots and protests in France that is destabilizing French politics in Macron's last few months as president.  Ukraine is losing support from the White House.  What's happening there and what does it mean for the conduct of the Ukraine war.

Burnham delivered an emotional speech to party faithful. English Premier League team Manchester City was found guilty of charges on financial impropriety.  Xi-Trump meeting in Washington, DC.

AfD- considered an extreme right German party- won Lander election in Saxony-Anhalt.  What are the implications of this historic state election victory?  Is dealignment happening in the German party system?  US President Trump is offering all Americans $5k if the Republicans win the midterm election.  This is the first time a clear monetary reward is offered to voters by a US president.  Is this v...

This is our 100th episode.  We discussed the US-Canada trade war.  What happened?  What next for Canada?  

Recent party support polling is affecting the pre-election coalition politicking.  Is the stale NZ party system ready for rejuvenation with the rise of the Opportunity Party?  NZ Foreign Minister's unkindly remarks in a parliamentary debate made headlines in Asian media of the wrong kind.  Why is it happening at this time of NZ politics.  FIFA announced a money-grabbing proposal of partially priva...

UK PM Starmer stepping off PM role in September after tumultuous last few months.  Lowy Institute released a public opinion poll on how Aussies view different countries.  World Cup football in North America clouded by 'political interference' of a red card decision.  China conducted missile test in the South Pacific.

NZ social cohesion and views on migration is a topic of a recent survey.  State of US-China relations after Xi-Trump summit. Arts and politics meet in Venice Biennale.  NZ MPs sanctioned by China for visiting Taiwan.

RNZAF plane flies to East China Sea to participate in an international mission but the PRC Foreign Affairs Ministry criticised NZ for this flight.  There is drama around the leaked emails regarding the position of the NZ Prime Minister about the Iran conflict.  The email was supposed to be leaked by the Foreign Minister and NZ news outlets have been giving coverage about this 'scandal.'  Banksy pl...

Hungarian election resulted in the end of PM Orban's 16-year reign.  What lessons does it offer?  Is it a glimmer of hope to reverse democratic backsliding?  New Zealand's National Party is dropping in public opinion polls leading to the general election this November.  There is unrest within the party and there are rumours about party leadership change.

US-Israeli conflict with Iran is on its fifth week (with no end in sight) and with the global economy held hostage due to the 'closure' of the Strait of Hormuz, US president Trump said that keeping the Strait open is not the US's problem.  In a reverse 'Pottery Barn rule' -- US breaks it but does not want to own it.  Even better it is what we call the 'Pampers rule' -- I make a mess, you clean up...

The US-Israeli conflict with Iran has intensified.  Iran has hit back at Gulf states and Israel.  Iran has also closed the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of petroleum is transported.  Stock markets have been volatile, oil prices have increased substantially, fertilizer prices have shot up.  Is there an off-ramp?  Will the global economy be resilient enough to sustain this market volatility?

Canadian PM Mark Carney visited Australia as part of his Indo-Pacific middle powers tour. Iran conflict enters its second week, what is the end game or is there even one? NZ PM is having a tough week trying to clarify NZ’s position on the US-Israel attack on Iran. His poll numbers are not good going into the year end general elections.

US and Israel attacked Iran that killed Iran's top leadership.  Iran has responded by expanding the conflict to neighboring states.  The Strait of Hormuz is now closed and air travel is impacted.  Why is this happening at this time?  What are the implications?

Recent Munich Security Conference followed up on the 'rupture' speech by Canadian PM Carney, US State Secretary delivered a similar message to last year's US VP Vance's speech but seem to be sugar-coated.  Is Europe ready to take defense in its own hands?  China's has been investing heavily on renewable energy while the US is now lagging behind.  What does this mean for China's green future? Final...

Will the NZ-India FTA see the light of day? PM Takaichi leads Japan's LDP to a big electoral victory.  Singapore's Deputy PM raised concern about AI and its impact on jobs and the future economy.    

Canadian PM Mark Carney delivered a hard hitting speech declaring the 'rules-based international order' as ruptured and calling for middle powers of the world to unite.  While many observers and non-western states have known (and complained) for a long time, this the first time that a Western leader finally yelled out: "The emperor has no clothes."

Thai-Cambodia border conflict flares again months after a peace accord signed in the presence of US President Trump.  In the midst of this conflict, Thai PM dissolves parliament and calls for new general election.

Tensions brewing between China and Japan due to PRC's response to Japanese PM's comments about 'survival-threatening situation' pertaining to conflict in the Taiwan Strait.  What's happening here? Over-reaction? Playing to domestic constituencies? Nationalism at play? Chinese envoy to NZ wrote a warning letter to NZ MPs that attended Taiwan's national day reception in Wellington.  Wolf-warrior at...

We share our experience of learning foreign languages and the importance of learning a different language.  One of our students currently studying Mandarin Chinese in Taiwan shares her experience learning the language and living in Taipei.  

ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur saw the formal admission of Timor Leste as the newest ASEAN member, the transfer of chair-ship to the Philippines and US President Trump attended the summit.  Seoul hosted the APEC meeting but the Trump-XI meeting stole the show as the leaders of the two largest economies met face to face.

We discuss a forthcoming research article to be published at the Comparative Political Studies by Jonathan Chu and colleagues on whether people are willing to trade-off democracy for desirable outcomes.  The paper using experiments show that while free and fair elections are a desired, people in the six countries they studied (including US, Japan, Italy) are willing to trade it off to avoid living...

Recent news about Australia's pacts with Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu has highlighted the important of geopolitical competition in the South Pacific.  However, despite the announcement of these pacts, they were not officially signed in time from the Pacific Island Forum.  What are these pacts? Are there outstanding issues that preventing the pacts from being signed?  We are joined by Henrietta McN...

Poland invoked NATO article 4 due to Russian drones violating Polish airspace.  Immigration agents in the US raided a South Korean EV plant in the state of Georgia and deported over 300 South Korean workers.  

We hosted a conference on "Asia-Pacific states: navigating and managing global disorder" a week ago.  We share insights we learned from the conference.  US Trump administration is planning to rebrand Pentagon to Department of War.  The cost of this renaming alone can be in billions of dollars.