UCLA Extension Business Insights

There is a continuation of the free fall in the commercial real estate market and problems for our small/medium sized banks. Government agency reporting or mis-reporting of inflation, growth, and unemployment under the microscope with the reality of a difficult economy is starting to surface for all to see. White collar workers are facing new and serious job retention issues with many new layoffs...

The U.S. employment data has been significantly overstated since 2022. The economy has not generated more full-time jobs for native Americans with all the reported increases either non-existent (later adjusted out of the data), part-time, or non-native Americans (importantly non-documented in America). The Fed is likely throwing in the towel, albeit slowly, on its higher interest rate policy (moti...

California employment reporting adjustments show most of reported employment gains last year had to be adjusted substantially downward. In brief, reported employment increases of close to 300,000 had to be revised downward to only 50,000 actual. Across the U.S. food prices and oil prices again moving higher as keeping overall inflation expectations at a higher rather than lower range. Meanwhile, t...

Banks have run out of time to camouflage their substantial bad debt losses on commercial real estate as the price decline continues. Consumer confidence declining and likelihood of an official recession is increasing. Major stock indices and capital flows into the U.S. at highs while businesses try to increase prices to maintain present levels of profits….the big money is not made in buying or sel...

The contagion of U.S. commercial real estate just spread to Asia and Europe in a big way…with an estimated loss of $1.2 Trillion in office building market values more is certainly on the way. Meanwhile, the stock market is oblivious with flows of international money (thanks to the many wars), a European recession with Germany being ground zero, and large momentum funds juicing the Magnificant 7 FA...

China’s Evergrande now entering bankruptcy which may force the sale of millions of homes and condos as well as total losses for international investors in China real estate related bonds. Both the Suez and Panama Canals seriously limited ship traffic but for different reasons. Inflation again increasing and the impact on interest rates will not be good for consumers or investors (in the stock or b...

Many revision to 2023 government reported indices understated the country’s economic health (employment seriously overstated and inflation understated). The commercial real estate market continues to collapse with the equivalent of 30 Empire State Building now vacant in NYC. The wars and threats of wars are driving up future inflation via escalating shipping fuel, crew costs, and sky high shipping...

As stock and bond markets celebrate a friendlier sounding Federal Reserve it’s time to review the context. The quick change in tone of the Fed and the crashing commercial real estate markets are likely related. We enter 2024 with many Black Swan events threatening our well-being. Our focus on lessening personal financial risks in stock and bond provides a calmer backdrop for the holiday season kno...

3rd Quarter company sales and earnings were most disappointing! Once again, a small number of large companies counter-weighted the poor performance of the majority of companies and industries. Now the large companies, such as Apple, are facing lower sales prospects and can be expected to have magnified downside leverage on the stock market in a growing recessionary economy. A number of important l...

A national commercial real estate crisis is picking up momentum with many landlords and banks facing historical financial losses. WeWork’s bankruptcy and Blackstone’s project by project defaults are adding hundreds of large commercial properties and many millions of square feet of office space to an already in-process crisis. Long term interest rates are expected to continue even higher as U.S. go...

Interest rates and inflation continue as major issues for economic growth and family well-being. BRICS countries cutting back needed raw materials and threatening our EV industry. Nuclear power and cancelled pipeline plans coming back on the table. Preparing for a long-term war related economy?

This week we discuss anticipated Fall-out from a new extended period of high interest rates, out of control government borrowing, and challenges to the U.S. dollar.

The CARES Act has moved over $20 billion/month into the hands of business owners. These amounts are nationally significant and have kept many reported government indices out of recessionary mode. This year the monthly cash payments from the IRS to businesses began to ramp up from $20 billion to $40 billion/month which is over half of all corporate income taxes normally received. Due to rampant fra...

Why it takes a while for a crisis to manifest itself…fair warning! Commercial real estate is rapidly transitioning from a core lending component to a core financial solvency issue. Bad debts for both commercial real estate, small business, and consumers moving through the pipeline will negatively impact the financial markets in a big way.

Welcome to our 100th episode! We’d like to thank our loyal listeners for making it to #100 with us! This episode will provide a summary of today’s leading economic issues with expectation of real estate, banking, and refinancing crises this year and next. Energy and therefore, inflation, is rapidly surfacing and continues to lead the U.S. into a “Round 2” of the 2007-2009 Great Recession in terms...

Two important meetings for the U.S. economy, inflations, interest rates, and global dollar valuation. Expect interest rates to continue higher this year and next as the U.S. Treasury sells record volumes of debt with few international buyers. Also, expect another banking crisis to rear its ugly head soon based on the commercial real estate needs to finance with downward trending collateral values....

Out of control spending has deferred a major recession but time is running out. Interest rates due to banking sector stresses will remain high this year and next given the federal government’s need to refinance almost $15 Trillion of debt this year and next. Begin thinking about the natural resources and energy sectors as attractive investment opportunities for a recovery starting in 2024. Please...

Higher interest rates coming as the U.S. sells $Trillions into the global bond market each month. Inflation moves in waves with the next wave starting soon this year. Raw materials will be important investment opportunities as the West rebuilds manufacturing, moves aggressively to EV autos/trucks, and oil prices resume a uptrend. Please access this link to begin consideration of raw materials comp...

The next phase of higher interest rates is starting and it’s a combination of the Federal Reserve selling many $billions of its bond portfolio plus the U.S. government ramping up its sales of new debt securities. Both short- and long-term interest rates can be expected to increase another one or more percent by year-end choking off business borrowing and creating more bank crises. Bad news aside i...

Higher for longer interest rates will soon take a bite out of stock, bond, and real estate prices and with Russian instability, that’s just the icing on the cake! Many economic/financial indicators signaling we are unsustainably high levels in the stock, bond, and real estate markets. Global movements out of dollars continuing which threatens many upcoming U.S. government auctions of new and refin...

Global oil prices are ready to ramp up. Imports/Exports (non-energy) is stagnating. Commercial real estate is on track toward another financial crisis. Inflation is still a major threat in Europe, and, likely, the U.S. Interest rates remain in uptrends with $1 Trillion of U.S. Treasury borrowings coming up in an environment of few debt buyers. For a brief but important interview with Danielle DiMa...

Economic fundamentals continue to deteriorate while tech stocks find a new shiny object in AI. Congress re-commits to more deficit-spending while the Fed will have to buy an increasing amount of U.S. debt as interest rates move higher. The 30-year fixed mortgage is now above 7% further depressing home prices in many markets. Commercial office building prices in “free-fall” as almost $1 Trillion of...

This week we take a look at examples across the U.S. of the deepening commercial real estate depression, inflation morphing into a long-term issue despite Fed efforts, and lower corporate earnings and lower P/E ratios ahead reflecting the long anticipated recession.

In 2008-2009 the U.S. and global economy was on life support due to failures in the home mortgage markets. Now, in 2023, the stage is set for what could be another U.S. and global financial crisis. This time the crisis is coming from the commercial real estate market and will likely expand to impair another 200 or more medium-sized banks and savings and loans. We also feature Emmanuel Probst as an...

Part two of this two-part series. Since the beginning of 2023 the majority of the world’s population and countries (China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia) are collaborating to create a new reserve currency. The impact of another reserve currency could be quite serious for the U.S. government in selling its Treasury Notes/Bonds as well as creating new shortages as well as new long-term inflation. Bott...