The Open Bell

Today on The Open Bell: Brent crude just jumped more than three dollars in a single session to clear $103 a barrel, and if you've ever wondered how fast a flare-up in the Strait of Hormuz turns into a higher number at the petrol pump, today's your case study. Chinese stock markets reopened this morning after a week-long National Day holiday and walked straight into a wall of news their t...

Today on The Open Bell: The Fed raised rates again in September, but the minutes released today show a central bank quietly arguing with itself about whether it's gone too far, and the honest answer is that nobody on that committee seems entirely sure. France's debt costs are now blowing out at a pace that's bringing back some uncomfortable memories of 2011, the euro just hit a 17-m...

Today on The Open Bell: The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, less than a third of what forecasters expected, and the market's response was to rally, which tells you everything about how strange this moment is: bad news for workers is now good news for investors, because a weakening labour market gives the Federal Reserve, America's central bank, less reason to keep borro...

Today on The Open Bell: The US economy added 29,000 jobs in September, a number so far below what anyone expected that it may have just quietly closed the book on the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking campaign, and if you have a mortgage, a loan, or anything priced off borrowing costs, that's the number that matters this week. OPEC+ held its oil output steady going into November, but the car...

Today on The Open Bell: The US now has three aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf for the first time since 2012, and oil just crossed $102 a barrel, which means this weekend's petrol price is already being written by people in military planning rooms, not market trading floors. The 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark that prices US government debt and your mortgage in the same breath, touc...

Today on The Open Bell: The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, PCE, came in cooler than Wall Street expected for August, and the odds of another rate hike this month just collapsed, but mortgage rates are still sitting at 7.58% so the relief isn't exactly landing on anyone's doorstep yet. Micron Technology just posted the kind of quarter that makes you reconsider everything you thought...

Today on The Open Bell: The 30-year Treasury yield, which is what the US government pays to borrow money for three decades and the invisible hand behind your mortgage rate, just hit 5.62 percent, a level this country hasn't seen since 2002, and the people setting prices on those bonds are saying something loud and clear about where they think inflation is actually headed. The Trump administra...

Today on The Open Bell: Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that carries a fifth of the world's oil, and Brent crude responded by surging past $107 a barrel, which means the world just chose the more expensive option. Australia's central bank raised borrowing costs to their highest point since 2011, and the reason printed right there in the...

Today on The Open Bell: Trump turned down Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil, and the market's response was instant: if those tankers stay disrupted, inflation isn't going anywhere. That rejection sent bond yields, the interest rate the government pays to borrow your money, climbing to 5.20% on the...

Today on The Open Bell: Oil hit $108 a barrel this week before pulling back, and the real story isn't the number itself but what's underneath it: diesel is now $6.51 a gallon in the US, up 73% since the Iran war began, and every truck and ship moving goods across the country is handing that bill straight to you at the register. The 30-year US Treasury yield just reached 5.50%, a level no...

Today on The Open Bell: The US and China extended their trade truce by two months instead of the six months markets were expecting, and that gap between what everyone assumed and what actually happened is the whole story. America's economy just posted its strongest activity reading in five years, which sounds like great news until you realize that "strong growth" is exactly what&apo...

Today on The Open Bell: Oil is sitting just under $100 a barrel and the reason your petrol bill, your mortgage rate, and your grocery prices are all still climbing at the same time traces back to one thing: the same supply crunch that pushed crude past $113 in April still hasn't let go. Nigeria's central bank just slashed its benchmark rate by 350 basis points, that's three and a ha...

Today on The Open Bell: Oil briefly cracked below $100 a barrel on Monday, and the reason is almost too absurd to say out loud: Trump told a TV interviewer he'd "probably" be open to a meeting with Iran's president, no deal, no timeline, not even a confirmed handshake, and the market moved anyway. AMD crossed $1 trillion in market value in a single session because Meta launched...

Today on The Open Bell: Houthi forces struck Riyadh over the weekend, oil gapped higher on Sunday night, and even after pulling back this morning, we're close enough to $100 a barrel that your petrol price, your next flight, and your heating bill are all already feeling it. The US Treasury Secretary and China's top economic official sat down in New York yesterday, the highest-level conta...

Today on The Open Bell: The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in over three years this week, and Chair Kevin Warsh is already signaling another hike before the end of the year, which means the cost of borrowing, on your mortgage, your car loan, your credit card, just got more expensive again. Japan's central bank raised its benchmark rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, and with...

Today on The Open Bell: The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in three years, and the unanimous 12-0 vote is the part they're not really talking about: there is no dissent, no daylight, and the Fed's own officials are already signalling another hike is probably coming. China's central bank just quietly scrapped the targets that told its banks how much to lend each year, a...

Today on The Open Bell: The interest rate your mortgage tracks just cracked 5% for the first time since 2007, and the Fed meets today with traders almost certain they're about to push it higher still. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spent Tuesday telling Congress the economy is fine, which is a harder sell when you're doing it against a backdrop of 19-year high borrowing costs, oil abov...

Today on The Open Bell: Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the only route that lets the country move seven million barrels a day without sailing past Iran, is confirmed gone end-to-end, Brent crude is through $107, and the one "backup plan" the world oil market has always counted on turns out to be the very chokepoint that's now the threat. The 10-year Treasury yield, the singl...

Today on The Open Bell: Core inflation came in hotter than forecast on Friday and there's now an 85% chance the Fed raises your borrowing costs again this week, which means the people who were hoping for a break on mortgages and credit cards are going to have to keep waiting. OpenAI just pulled what would have been the biggest tech IPO in history, citing safety concerns, and the Japanese inve...

Today on The Open Bell: Oil cracked $107 a barrel overnight after fresh US-Iran clashes near the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that roughly a fifth of the world's oil flows through, and if you think that stays in the Persian Gulf, check what you paid at the pump this week. At 8:30 this morning, the US government drops the August inflation report, the last hard number the Federal Reserv...

Today on The Open Bell: The ECB just raised interest rates again, and the reason is a war the eurozone isn't even fighting: oil above $100 a barrel means European inflation is climbing back up, which means the central bank is making borrowing more expensive for millions of people whose energy bills are already doing that job on their own. The U.S. has now banned Canadian dairy, alcohol, and m...

Today on The Open Bell: Houthi drones hit Saudi oil infrastructure overnight and Brent crude, the global oil price benchmark, is pushing right up against $100 a barrel, which sounds like a geopolitics story until you realise it's also a "why does my petrol cost this much" story. China just posted a record monthly trade surplus of $119 billion, exports up 25% in a single year, and th...

Today on The Open Bell: Iran just declared a second restricted zone on top of the already-strangled Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude is closing in on $97 a barrel, and the question now isn't whether this is a supply shock but how big one we're actually looking at. The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, which is three times what anyone expected, and the good-news headline is real, but...

Today on The Open Bell: The US military sank three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend, and Brent crude is now pushing toward $97 a barrel, which means the geopolitical bill is already landing at the petrol pump before most people even saw the news. The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly three times what forecasters expected, and the cruel irony is that a strong jobs report now raise...

Today on The Open Bell: Iran hit Kuwait with missiles and drones overnight, oil surged, and then gave back roughly half the gain in the same session once it became clear the White House is quietly moving toward talks, which tells you everything about who's actually steering this market right now. A Fed governor who could well be the deciding vote at this month's rate meeting just signall...