Simply Economics

It's a big week for investors with the Fed expected to step up the pace of QE tapering on Wednesday ahead of what should be very different policy announcements from the SNB, BoE, ECB and BoJ (EST) all on 'Super Thursday'. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the key issues facing the decision-makers.

Just when it seemed that the outlook for central bank policy was getting a little clearer, the arrival of the Omicron variant has cast a fresh cloud over the speed and extent to which QE and/or interest rates might be adjusted. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.

The dollar’s recent gains in part reflect euro weakness with the Eurozone unit now at multi-month lows against a range of currencies. Moreover, in the absence of a change in tone from the ECB, upcoming economic data and events could well reinforce the currency’s slide. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the medium-term outlook.

U.S. inflation continues to climb and with it, so does speculation about early Fed tightening. With yield spreads likely to widen in the currency’s favour, October’s shock CPI report could open the door to a significantly stronger dollar that, in turn, would provide an additional unwelcome lift to prices overseas. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.

Financial markets have become used to being forewarned by central banks about prospective changes to monetary policy. However, when such decisions are split, clear communication becomes much harder. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss last week’s announcements and how the Fed got it right and the BoE got it wrong.

With inflation increasingly pulling the monetary policy strings, the Federal Reserve this week is expected to launch its QE tapering plan while the Bank of England becomes the first of the G10 central banks to actually raise its benchmark interest rate. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the outlook for monetary policy in the context of the latest and upcoming key economic data.

By and large, central bankers around the world now seem to accept that high inflation will last longer than originally expected. Most still seem to expect a return to more normal rates in 2022 but the recent sharp jump in energy costs has pulled forward many investors’ view of monetary tightening. Against a backdrop of slowing economic growth, this week’s global podcast considers the tricky decisi...

Friday’s U.S. employment report is widely seen as the key that could unlock the door to Fed tapering. However, payrolls will still need to be strong, at least to a degree, or November’s FOMC meeting might yet turn out to be a damp squib. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins look at what’s expected and discuss the other potential market-moving data and events this week.

Earlier today the FOMC indicated that it will soon begin the, potentially protracted, process of normalising U.S. monetary policy. By contrast, on Tuesday the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China signaled that they are in no rush to follow suit and both the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are also seen holding steady on Thursday. Either economic cycles are now moving out of syn...

Sub-zero readings on many of Econoday’s economic consensus divergence indices (ECDIs) confirm an unexpectedly large hit to global activity rates from the Delta variant. Price pressures may be easing slightly but the combination of slowing growth and above target inflation poses a real problem for policymakers. The team discuss the latest developments and their implications for policy in this month...

An interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand looked nailed on today but Covid developments may now dictate otherwise. In any event, a tightening there would be an outlier. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest global economic developments that suggest policy rates elsewhere are still going nowhere in a hurry.

Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins look ahead to Friday’s U.S. employment report and discuss more general recovery prospects in the context of raw material shortages, the spreading Delta variant and sharply rising consumer prices. Thursday’s BoE MPC meeting and the possibility of an early end to QE as well as future potential changes at the Fed are also in focus.

The combination of the rapidly spreading Delta variant and some slightly less dovish sounding central banks is giving stock market investors pause for thought. Jeremy Hawkins looks ahead to Thursday’s ECB meeting and considers whether the central bank can bolster confidence in a non-inflationary economic recovery in Europe.

PMIs in Europe as well as similar business surveys in the US have been posting record scores in contrast to subsequent definitive data which have often been no better than mixed. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the importance of PMIs to policy makers and forecasters, looking at their sampling structure and methodology for explanations to the ongoing disconnect.

Major dislocations between demand and supply continue to put upside pressure on final product prices but most central banks remain convinced that rising inflation will be short-lived. The team discusses the likelihood of future policy tightenings being delivered sooner rather than later.

Global demand continues to recover more quickly than output which remains restrained by shortages of raw materials. For many countries the growth gap has yet to drive up final product prices but an exception may be the US where prices are indeed jumping as the country benefits from an early reopening that has yet to unfold in many other economies.

The basic message from global central banks is holding, that inflation pressures now building will soon fade and that rate hikes are still well down the road.

Federal Reserve communications are approaching the inflection point on when to signal the withdrawal of stimulus. For Europe, this pivot is still more distant given lagging vaccination rates and lagging economic performance.

Wild bumps for US data are due to comparison distortions, an effect that is expected to be temporary and which would not derail Federal Reserve plans for extended stimulus. Steady policy for the Swiss National Bank, given a falling franc, is also the expectation. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the UK's performance amid developing tensions with the EU over vaccine production and availa...

Despite the recent rise in long rates, neither the Federal Reserve nor the Bank of England are likely to make any QE adjustments. Covid cases have been coming down and vaccination rates going up in both the US and UK, in sharp contrast to the Eurozone where the outlook is becoming more uncertain.

With vaccines rolling out and Covid cases coming down, our team updates the outlook for inflation and long-term interest rates and what it may or may not mean for any changes in central bank policy.

Inflation may still be well below target but it is on the rise as are long-term interest rates. How these factors are affecting the financial markets and monetary policy and what they mean for central-bank communication strategy are points of this week's discussion.

This week's topic is whether central banks may begin to increase or decrease QE as a means of controlling exchange rates and the related risks that such action might bring to financial market stability.

Inflation expectations in the financial markets are rising quickly in contrast to actual inflation measures which are still subdued.

Brian Jackson and Jeremy Hawkins pull together the latest economic trends and discuss the importance to financial markets of the relative pace of the vaccine rollout.