Momentum Mondays

Consumers are spending more than they're earning and savings rates are falling — the macro picture that's easy to dismiss until you check your own account balance. In the Planning Room: the emergency fund conversation for 2026. How much you actually need, why most people have it in the wrong place, and why this is the first time in 15 years that your emergency fund can earn 4-5% with zero risk. Pl...

Long-term Treasury yields hit 20-year highs this week — for structural reasons that won't be fixed by the next Fed meeting. The economy got a significant upward revision. And the gap between the headline S&P 500 and the typical stock is as wide as it's been all year. In the Planning Room: the 401k question a lot of people are sitting with right now. Why doesn't my account look like the market?...

Meta's AI agent surpassed ChatGPT as the top free app in the U.S. this week. Tech rallied. Travel, insurance, and financial services stocks fell. The market is pricing AI disruption in real time — company by company, industry by industry. In the Planning Room: BlackRock's big picture thesis on AI, tokenization, and the AI-agent economy. What these concepts actually mean in plain English, why the i...

The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023. Stocks finished higher. Long-term yields fell. Your savings account is paying more. A week that surprised almost everyone — including us. Matt and Garrett explain why the market reacted the way it did, make the honest case that hiking rates to fight energy-driven inflation might be fighting a problem that interest rates can't solve, and cover the...

Oil surged back above $100. Global yields rose simultaneously across multiple developed markets — a signal bigger than any single economic report. And the Fed meets next week with a 70% probability of a hike. Matt and Garrett's honest view: they don't think the hike comes this year. Here's why. In the Planning Room: the question most bond fund holders have been sitting with for two years. Why did...

Recorded live while Warsh was speaking at Jackson Hole — and his comments made it into the episode. Inflation at 3.7%, financial conditions not restrictive, "we have work to do." No forward guidance. The Fed is quieter and the message is more hawkish than markets hoped. Oil is in the $80s — not $120 — because ships are turning off tracking systems to get through the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin cross...

Stocks sold off. Treasury yields hit a 19-year high even as consumer data weakened. Bitcoin surged 14% and crossed a key technical level that's worth understanding. And in the Planning Room — the Social Security decision most people make too quickly. Matt and Garrett flip their usual dynamic on this one. Garrett is the one pushing people to wait. Matt is more understanding when clients need the in...

Three straight weeks of gains. Jobs softened, inflation stayed contained, and the September rate hike that was looking increasingly likely a few weeks ago has become increasingly unlikely. CoreWeave reported a $104 billion backlog — signed contracts for AI computing capacity that proves the demand is real. And small business confidence hit its highest level in nearly a year. Matt and Garrett break...

Microsoft's biggest single-day gain ever. Amazon's first $200 billion quarter. Meta fell. The AI earnings picture is being sorted in real time, and the answers are diverging fast. Matt and Garrett break down what the earnings split means for investors, why the GDP headline understates how well the economy is actually doing, and what the Fed's deliberate silence is costing markets in near-term vola...

Oil surged above $90 as Yemen's Houthi rebels opened a second front in the Red Sea. Alphabet beat earnings estimates and posted its first-ever negative free cash flow quarter. And next week brings five major market events in 48 hours. Matt and Garrett keep it tight this week — breaking down what's new in the Middle East escalation, what Alphabet's negative free cash flow actually means for the AI...

Inflation posted its biggest monthly drop in more than six years. The catch: almost all of it came from falling gasoline prices during a window that has already partially closed — oil is back near $80 as the Middle East conflict resumes. Matt and Garrett break down the inflation nuance, explain what the ongoing rotation out of tech and into financials and industrials is actually signaling, and cov...

Trump Accounts launched on July 4th and parents have been asking about them ever since. In the Planning Room, Matt and Garrett walk through everything you need to know — who qualifies for the $1,000 federal deposit, how contributions work, the employer matching angle most people haven't heard about yet, and how these accounts compare to a 529. They also cover a Federal Reserve that's genuinely div...

Q2 was a strong quarter for markets — one of the best in years. But Q2 was also recovery from a difficult Q1, and the full picture is more nuanced than the headline numbers suggest. Matt and Garrett do their quarterly deep dive: why oil falling was the story that drove everything else, why gold declining during an inflation spike is actually a meaningful signal, what's behind the historic semicond...

The Strait of Hormuz is reopening. Oil is back to $70 — erasing the entire war premium. May's inflation print came in hot, but bond investors already looked through it as yields fell. The thesis Matt has been holding since late February is essentially complete. Matt and Garrett close that chapter this week — clearly, honestly, and with the context that the timeline was messier than expected but th...

Oil fell 13% on a ceasefire framework announcement. Kevin Warsh held his first Fed press conference and signaled the end of the dot plot era. SpaceX completed the largest IPO in recorded history. And this morning, the ceasefire framework was paused as Israel continued bombing Lebanon and Iran disputed the terms. Matt and Garrett recorded this episode in real time — covering the week honestly, incl...

Two bumpy weeks to start June, inflation at a three-year high, and a Fed meeting next week that could set the direction for the rest of 2026. Matt and Garrett dig into what's actually happening beneath the headlines — including why the pullback is narrower than it looks and why the inflation number is more nuanced than the headline suggests. The Planning Room this week is one of the most practical...

The S&P 500 returned 5.3% in May. Strip out technology and the rest of the index was slightly negative. The equal-weight version of the same 500 companies returned 2% to 3%. The gap between the headline number and what most portfolios actually experienced was one of the widest in recent memory — and it tells you something important about the rally we're in. Matt and Garrett get into what's dri...

Nine consecutive weeks of gains and all-time highs across the board — but GDP was revised down to 1.6% and PCE inflation hit a three-year high on the same morning. The word stagflation showed up. Matt and Garrett take it seriously without catastrophizing it. Matt's thesis that oil drives the inflation story got some vindication this week as yields reversed lower alongside falling oil prices. Garre...

Eight consecutive weeks of gains. Treasury yields at near two-decade highs, the Fed explicitly putting rate hikes on the table, and Nvidia reporting $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue — up 85% year over year. The equity market is proving more resilient than the backdrop suggests. Matt is holding his thesis that rates are heading lower eventually. Garrett isn't so sure about the timeline. They find...

Consumer prices hit a three-year high. Wholesale prices surged 6%. Today is Jerome Powell's last day as Fed Chair, and Kevin Warsh takes over into one of the more complicated inflation environments the Fed has faced in years. Matt had been holding firm that oil falls and inflation fades. This week's data pushed back on that timeline — and Garrett noticed. That conversation is worth a listen. In th...

Six consecutive weeks of gains, the Nasdaq up 4%, and reports of a framework agreement that could finally close the chapter on the conflict. Good week on the scoreboard. Matt and Garrett dig into what's actually driving it — and where the risks are hiding. The AI capital spending numbers from big tech are remarkable. But the more interesting conversation is what those numbers mean for the industry...

April ended at all-time highs. The S&P gained 10%, the Nasdaq surged 15%, and corporate America posted its highest profit margins on record. It also ended with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, the naval blockade still in place, and Jerome Powell — who said he'd step aside once the DOJ investigation was resolved — now saying he's planning to stay. Matt and Garrett don't agree on the inflation...

Four consecutive positive weeks. Two all-time highs in a row. And underneath — oil back above $100, peace talks canceled, and the Fed meeting next week with Powell's second-to-last press conference. Matt and Garrett break down a week where the headline and the fine print told very different stories. They don't fully agree on how much the Warsh confirmation uncertainty changes the rate outlook. Tha...

The S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high above 7,000 — completing an 11-session V-shaped recovery from a nearly 10% drawdown. The week started with a naval blockade of Iranian ports. It ended at a record. Matt and Garrett dig into what that tells you about how markets actually work — and why the explanation isn't as contradictory as it sounds. In the Planning Room: should you invest when the m...

After weeks of bad news, this one's different. A confirmed ceasefire sent stocks surging and oil plunging — but Matt and Garrett aren't ready to call it resolved. The agreement was being tested before the week was even over, and this weekend's talks will determine whether it sticks. They don't fully agree on how much to trust the rally. That conversation is worth a listen. In the Planning Room: in...