Macro Bytes

In this episode of Macro Bytes we consider the potential implications of US-China tensions for global political risk and inflation risk. We discuss what has changed under President Biden, what has not, and answer the big investor question: what does this mean for inflation. Welcome to another week of Macro Bytes. In this episode our host Stephanie Kelly is joined by Jeremy Lawson, Chief Economist...

The causes of the pandemic recession were different to anything from the post-war era, so should we expect the economic recovery to be different too? How should market price this recovery and what should investors look out for? Welcome to another week of Macro Matters. In this episode our host Paul Diggle is joined by Jeremy Lawson, Luke Bartholomew and Robert Gilhooly from the abrdn Research Inst...

The recent news of a significant jump in US consumer prices surprised many. As post-pandemic demand for goods has risen, the US is experiencing supply bottlenecks putting upward pressure on prices. Combined with Biden’s economic stimulus, this has caused growing concerns about the risk of inflation. Will the economy overheat? And how will the Federal Reserve respond? Welcome to another week of Mac...

Semiconductor chips are in short supply and high demand at the moment. These chips are technologically hard to make and production is highly concentrated in Taiwan and Korea. With semiconductors present in an ever-increasing share of the goods that global consumers buy, a global shortage can be seen as akin to a modern-day oil shock - with widespread consequences for economic activity, inflation,...

The Scottish National Party (SNP) won a fourth term in power in the recent Scottish election. Despite falling one seat short of absolute majority, with the backing of the Greens, they will be able to form a pro-independence coalition. What does this mean for the Scottish independence referendum and how will it impact investors and the economy? Our host Stephanie Kelly is joined by Luke Bartholomew...

After the Great War and Spanish Flu, the 1920s saw a rejuvenation of the economy with a golden age of booming consumerism, innovation and culture. Now economists are questioning whether history is set to repeat itself. Will we see the 2020s roar? Or is secular stagnation here to stay? In this episode our host Paul Diggle is joined by special guest Dominic White , Head of Economics at Absolute Stra...

Biden vowed to ‘reset’ the approach to foreign policy and rekindle international relationships. But how has he fared? Join Stephanie Kelly and special guest Jeffrey Wright as they discuss repairing allyship in Europe, the US China relationship and what this means for the macro environment.     Jeffrey Wright, analyst at Eurasia Group's North America practice, shares his expertise in US fiscal...

This week on Macro Bytes we welcome Dr Grégory Claeys to discuss the European Central Bank (ECB) strategic review. Can monetary policy be used in the fight against climate change and what does this mean for the ECB? In this episode our host Paul Diggle is joined by special guest, Dr Grégory Claeys . Senior Fellow at the European think tank Bruegel and Associate Professor at the Conservatoire Natio...

The Covid Crisis has thrown the sustainability of the European Union’s fiscal rules into question. This episode of Macro Bytes discusses the main reform proposals on the table and debates whether a new European fiscal architecture is needed for the post-pandemic world. Welcome to another week of Macro Bytes. In this episode our co-hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle address the motivations for,...

As Biden unveils a $2 trillion dollar infrastructure package for the US, it’s clear that his administration are committed to strengthening the post-pandemic economy. This episode of Macro Matters discusses the key challenges of the proposal and what it means for politics, climate change and beyond. Joining our host Stephanie Kelly for another US politics special is the familiar voice of Luke Barth...

Are higher bond yields a headwind to the economic recovery and financial markets, or justified by the improvement in economic prospects as countries recover from the pandemic? This week on Macro Matters, we look at government bond markets to understand the impact of higher yields on the economic recovery and investors.  Our host Paul Diggle is joined by the familiar voice of Luke Bartholomew, our...

How have emerging economies weathered the Covid storm? This week on Macro Matters, we look across Latin America, Russia and Asia to understand the different challenges facing emerging markets along the road to recovery. In this episode our host Stephanie Kelly is joined by two of our Emerging Market Economists from the ASI Research Institute, Robert Gilhooly and Edward Glosso p. Together, they dis...

As the pandemic continues to accelerate the long-term shift away from cash transactions, central banks around the world are seriously considering digital currencies as a way to keep up with digitalisation. But what would a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) look like? How could it change the way we all save and spend money, and what does this mean for the future of commercial banking? Welcome to...

This week marks the rather grim milestone of a year since the World Health Organisation declared the COVID-19 spread a global pandemic. But with vaccines being rolled out and lockdown easing, we might be glimpsing the light at the end of the tunnel. The big question remains: what will the world look like when lockdown is over? For investors and for policymakers, this is especially thorny because i...

In this episode we are discussing the themes and debates shaping the global macro-economic and market environment. 

Ahead of International Women’s Day on March 8th, this week’s episode of Macro Bytes focuses on gender equality. Sharing the findings from the newly published research ‘A Woman’s Place’ , the episode explores why boosting female participation in the labour force is key to unlocking long-term economic growth and what policies really work. It turns out, men are a crucial piece of the puzzle. Find out...

If there’s one thing that’s certain about the pandemic, it’s uncertainty. So how do economists and investors make forecasts in this environment? Our latest episode explains why drifting into epidemiology has become an occupational hazard when it comes to forecasting the macro-economy and markets. Our hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle are joined once again by Jeremy Lawson , Chief Economist and...

Biden’s bold fiscal stimulus proposal has sparked a wider debate in the investment community about the limits of fiscal policy. Should we worry about governments running large deficits and building up huge debt loads? Or are the costs of doing too little greater than doing too much? In this episode, our host Paul Diggle is joined by fellow economists from the Aberdeen Standard Investments Research...

How are EU institutions handling the Covid challenge and what are the prospects for EU recovery? With Draghi trying to form a new government in Italy, upcoming elections in Germany to decide who replaces Merkel, and a difficult vaccine rollout being a potential source of euroscepticism, it's safe to say that 2021 has change in store for European politics. This week on Macro Matters, our hosts...

Science meets politics in this week’s episode of Macro Matters. As the race continues to roll out a coronavirus vaccine, what should be a positive step towards normality has turned into a political debate over supply. Are we seeing the emergence of vaccine nationalism, and what does this mean for Covid diplomacy? This week on Macro Matters, our hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle are joined once...

As America’s new president is sworn in and the Biden administration officially begins, our host Stephanie Kelly explores what to look out for in Biden’s first 100 days. What changes are in store for fiscal policy and what does this mean for investors? This week we're joined by Clayton Allen , director of Eurasia Group, who brings a wealth of knowledge having worked in both the Senate and the...

Today we are joined by the economist Bridget Rosewell to talk about the post-pandemic future of cities. Bridget is a leading expert in the economics of cities, transport, economic infrastructure, and she was Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to the Greater London Authority for a decade in the 2000s. 

The pandemic has wide-ranging implications for the future of cities. Lock-down measures have reduced the use of office space, halted the hospitality sector and changed how we use transport systems. But is city-flight a temporary phenomenon? Or are cities more resilient than we think? In this episode our host Paul Diggle discusses the post-pandemic future of cities with the esteemed British economi...

What does 2021 have in store for the global economy? Rested after the festive break, our hosts Paul Diggle and Stephanie Kelly regroup for the first episode of 2021. Together they look forward to the year ahead and answer 7 questions shaping our economic and political outlook • How big is the drag from renewed lockdowns? • How quickly will vaccines be rolled out and gain macroeconomic traction? •...

In our final podcast of 2020, we're joined by Felicity Burch, Director of Innovation and Digital at the CBI and James McCann, Senior Economist at ASI. What does the future hold for business? How important is innovation and why does research matter for economists and investors alike? In part 1, we consider why innovation matters for business, the "silver-lining" effect that Covid has...