In Moscow's Shadows

In the first half, I look at developments regarding Ukraine (I'm getting more sceptical about Putin's interest in a deal) and profile former FSB general Sergei Beseda, 'the Baron.' In the second half, for Cosmonautics Day, I look at the ailing Russian space programme. The FPRI report by Pavel Luzin I mention is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conductt...

A bonus second batch of questions, relating to war, peace and my attitudes to social media! The CASE survey of emigre attitudes is here . The RUSI commentary on the OSCE is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can al...

Comrades!  Forgive the tedious title, but this episode is the first of two answering questions set by my esteemed Patrons, covering Russian domestic and foreign policy, with another to follow covering the war and more. Climate change and oligarchic rivalry, Belarusian cunning and Central Asian balancing, all this and a lot more... The Washington Post article ‘Art of dissent: How Russians protest t...

One, I suspect, more for the wonks. I dig into Prime Minister Mishustin's lengthy and not-so-exciting annual report to parliament, and the responses from the 'opposition' for what is said, and what's not. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civ...

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has suggested Ukraine should be allowed into the EU on 1 January 2030 (by which time the war will be over or frozen...). What if it could be in months not years? It won't happen, for all kinds of reasons, but let's entertain it as a 'what if?' thought experiment. PS: I got my digits muddled: it's Article 42, clause 7 of the Treaty if Eu...

What shapes Russian foreign policy? I start by looking at the core issue of the moment, Moscow's thinking over the proposed ceasefire, then consider more broadly what kind of a bizarre and varied mix of institutions and individuals actually shape policy. The Sunday Times article I mention is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for inn...

Reflecting the chaotic and fast-moving nature of the times, another podcast of two parts. In the first, looking at various issues of the week, from Trump's apparent threat to increase sanctions on Russia to a spy case in the UK. In the second half, I look at two recent books, Political Legitimacy and Traditional Values in Putin's Russia , edited by Helge Blakkisrud & Pål Kolstø (Edin...

Much as I would love not to have to keep talking about Trump, it's inevitable that I cover the extraordinary events of this week: Trump as King Lear, demanding obsequious flattery, Zelensky perhaps ought not to have made the trip to DC. So where now? And in the second half, the Russian police in crisis, demoralised, under-strength and with corruption again on the rise. Another very real succe...

In a more-freeform-than usual episode, I consider the aftermath of the Munich Security Conference, why Trump is such a Putin fanboy (more about being a wannabe strongman than because of any kompromat), and what this means for peace in Ukraine. The summary? There is no deal on Ukraine, and we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, but there is at least a chance for some kind of a deal. Maybe. The p...

As Russia-watchers, we know that Russia is not just Russian, or Russian Orthodox, but there is also a glib assumption that to be Muslim or otherwise a minority is to be depressed, repressed, and suppressed. So how to explain Tatarstan, one of the few regions where the titular nationality is a majority (54% Tatar, 54% Muslim), yet one which seems to work well enough within the Russian Federation? T...

Originally one of the 'Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas' bonuses for Patrons, in this short pod I explore whether, when the soldiers come home, Russia is likely to experience a problem of a dispossessed and alienated generation akin to the 'Afghan Syndrome' which faced the veterans of the Soviet Afghan war. Sadly, the answer is probably so. Support the show

The Russian response to Tucker Carlson's claim that the Biden administration tried to assassinate Putin has to a large extent been driven by political expediency -- it makes a great propaganda narrative -- but there does seem to be more to it than that? Why is modern Russia, from Putin down, so prone to seeing the world through a conspiratorial lens, everything determined by behind-the-scenes...

How else, frankly, to title an episode which covers Trump and Putin, the CIA's Ukrainian cooperation, Russo-Iranian and -Indian relations, Belarus, and four books on Crimea's history? The Vlad Vexler commentary I mentioned is here . The Moscow Times article on Russian-Indian relations is here . The four books I cover are: The Eurasian Steppe by Warwick Ball (Edinburgh University Press, 2...

The UK has signed a 'One Hundred Years Partnership Agreement' with Ukraine -- what's really involved under this grandiose title, and what does it show us about the wider challenges (and some missed opportunities) for supporting Kyiv? The texts are available here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive cri...

We pundits have done more than our fair share speculating on whether, how, when and with what consequences there could be peace or a ceasefire in Ukraine, but instead it seems a good time to see what various research projects suggest about what ordinary Russians and Ukrainians think. This is something that is actually harder to ascertain than one might assume, but it important, not least for condi...

Outright prediction may be a mug's game, but what are some of the people and processes I will be watching in 2025? For those who get lost in the flow, they are: PERSONALIA ·       Elvira Nabiullina ·       Ramzan Kadyrov  ·       Alexander Khinshtein  ·       Alexei Dyumin  ·       Sergei Naryshkin  ·       Nikolai Patrushev  ·       (Not Mikhail Mishustin/Anton Vaino) INSTITS ·       Securit...

Sabotage under the Baltic, a grudging apology, a possible attack on a Russian cargo ship, firebombing ATMs, energy blackmail in Moldova... what connects them beyond a sense that, having changed his rules of engagement abroad in 2024, Putin may find this coming to bite him in 2025. Either way, it looks like the coming year will be a bumpy one, to say the least. The podcast's corporate partner...

What can one learn from Putin's 4½-hour-long end of year press conference? Essentially, his message to his people is that - however they might feel - everything is fine and they should stay the course. Meanwhile, over Ukraine if anything his line may be hardening: he may talk of 'compromise', but is trying to define the terms of any future peace. Anyway, I listened to 4½ hours, and...

We tend to focus on the big challenges facing Russia: war, sanctions, the struggle of authoritarianism vs the remnants of civil society. Maybe it is time to look at some of the less often discussed problems that nonetheless characterise the emerging Russian 'polycrisis': demographics, the mephedrone epidemic, and crumbling transport infrastructure: sex, drugs and rocky roads. The OSW rep...

So Bashar al-Assad's blood-drenched regime has fallen. Hurrah. But what now for Russia? Is this a terrible geopolitical defeat, or actually something that perversely frees it from a commitment made in 2015, yet less relevant today? What are the likely knock-on effects for Russia's position in the Mediterranean and Africa? The hottest of hot takes. That Q&A with Sam Heller and Aron Lu...

President Zelensky's suggestion that military attempts to retake the occupied territories could be abandoned in return for rapid NATO membership for Ukraine does mark a change in tack. What is driving this political-diplomatic adaptation? And, in the second half, I draw on four books that speak in different ways to how Russia has managed (and sometimes failed) to adapt to the military and eco...

Schrödinger's Defence Minister, at once busy and visible yet strangely inconsequential and intangible, what can one make of Andrei Belousov, his rise and his chances of achieving anything in his current role? The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotage The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor i...

'Strategic culture' means the underlying cultural assumptions about threats and options that informs a nation's specific strategic choices, and Russia's has been strikingly continuous for centuries. As I discuss, it reflects the underlying circumstances and challenges of the country, and while not a straightjacket -- Gorbachev and Brezhnev were products of the same culture -- i...

It's impossible to avoid talking about the potential implications of Donald Trump's election, even as its difficult to know for sure what he intends and almost as hard to say anything that hasn't already been said. I have a go, though, after considering Putin's hour-long speech and epic (or exhausting) 3-hour Q&A on the 'polyphonic' world order at Valdai. The podc...

I use reviews of three books to consider the risks and limitations of personalistic explanations of power under Putin, and whether a medieval concept of clan and family actually makes more sense... The books are: THE WIZARD OF THE KREMLIN by GIULIANO DA EMPOLI (Pushkin Press)   THE KREMLIN’S NOOSE. PUTIN’S BITTER FEUD WITH THE OLIGARCH WHO MADE HIM RULER OF RUSSIA by AMY KNIGHT (Icon Books and Cor...