In Moscow's Shadows

All the Ms. First of all, as a counter to the understandable pessimism about Russia at the moment, I look at some of the aspects of Moscow that still make me marvel, and consider how they offer signs of long-term (which really means post-Putin) hope for Russia as a whole. And then after the break, we have mob murder, as the newly-opened case of the 2009 murder of old-school gangster Vyacheslav &ap...

A short. 'one act' special: with the news (still unconfirmed) that Navalny is being sent to IK-2 penal colony in Vladimir region, I look at the prison, and what that may mean for him. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here .  Support...

With Navalny in prison, the opposition mobilising, and the state cracking down, what will happen next? The only honest answer anyone can give is "no idea." So instead of trying to make predictions, I instead offer up a variety of scenarios, to illustrate the range of possibilities and also highlight some specific issues we need to bear in mind. In the second part, I build off a piece In...

It's a deliberately provocative title, I know, but how might the 'Navalny effect' impact late Putinism? A swing towards blunt and uncompromising authoritarianism? A genuine 'reform that you may preserve' conservative reformulation? The truth is likely to be something between the two, but it is worth considering that even if Navalny is not successful in bringing genuine dem...

Yesterday saw major protests all across Russia, a genuine success for Team Navalny. But now what? My rough and uncurated first thoughts... You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here .  Support the show

Another short 'cellcast', though given its timeliness, going public straightaway. In this cellcast, recorded on 18 January 2021, I take a very speculative, un-thought-through look at the Kremlin's options for dealing with Navalny now he is once again in its hands as of last night... You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporti...

The FSO, the Federal Protection Service (or Federal Guard Service) is more that just Putin's dark-suited bodyguards, or the goose-stepping soldiers at the Eternal Flame. In my latest exploration of Russia's security community, I look at these 'watchers of the watchers' who even do their own opinion polling. (The Meduza article I reference is here .) In the second part, I look a...

So Russia has a new laser system, called Peresvet. Pere-who? This gets me talking, for the last of the Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas cellcasts, about the battle of Kulikovo in 1380 - and why it matters in 2021. (It is, by the way, a bit of a fascination for me, and if you're interested you can find more about it in my book Kulikovo 1380: the battle that made Russia ) Support the show

How did Defence Minister Shoigu make it from graduating from Krasnoyarsk Poly as a construction engineer to being discussed as a potential future president? In this third cellcast of the 2020-21 Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas, I give my quick take. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and a...

How might a scandal from 2019 affect who runs the FSB in 2021? And should we consider levels of elite embezzlement a good index of their confidence? In this second cellcast of the 2020-21 Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas, I take a look at the agency's future. One erratum, by the way, that serves me right for trying to convert big numbers on the fly: the 120 billion rubles I mention at one poi...

Today in 1979, Afghanistan was waking up under Soviet domination. In this first cellcast of the 2020-21 Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas, I pull out three aspects of that conflict of relevance today. The Levada poll I mention on Navalny, by the way, is here . And if anyone is interested in my PhD on the impact of the war, the book-of-the-thesis is Afghanistan: the Soviet Union's last war (199...

More on the Navalny case, the story that keeps unfolding, following the publication of his conversation with one of his would-be killers, and a rumination on whether there will be implications for the FSB and its approach. Then, as a reminder that Russia also has competent spooks, I turn to the recently-revealed and massive hack of largely US systems. Is this really a 'cyberattack,' as s...

An impressively detailed investigation by Bellingcat and The Insider meticulously details the Russian Federal Security Service operation against Alexei Navalny, so here is a short podcast episode devoted to this case and some implications. The report is available here , and Navalny's video on it here . My hot take in the Moscow Times is here , any my October piece about General Smirnov is her...

Is there life in the Communist Party, and any chance of it again becoming an opposition party, maybe even in some kind of entente with Alexei Navalny? My thoughts. And in the second part, I highlight three quirky stories that caught my eye, on presidential nicknames, on misleading ratings, and on life after high politics. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of th...

Another short 'cellcast', going out directly to my Patrons, and to everyone else a week later. In this cellcast, recorded on 24 November, I look at the Orthodox, nationalist businessman Konstantin Malofeev and his new Tsargrad political party. In and of itself, it will not really become a threat to the Kremlin - nor is it meant as such - but the rise of nationalist politics not stage-man...

An introduction to the Russian underworld and, especially, three problematic concepts - the 'honest thief,' the 'thieves' world' and the 'mafia state' - to kick off a series of segments about aspects of Russian criminality. And in the second part, why the rest of Russia doesn't share Ramzan Kadyrov's hostility to Captain America. You can also follow my...

After a few very brief observations on the US elections and the implications of a Biden presidency, a look at the SVR, its operations, role, culture and political ambitions of its director, Sergei Naryshkin (which I also discuss here ). Then, in the second part, I take apart the rumours about Putin's supposed imminent resignation for reasons of ill-health - and muse on why we still have to li...

Another short 'cellcast', going out directly to my Patrons, and to everyone else a week later. A rant, plain and simple. Sparked by the article 'The Narcissism of The New York Times’ Foreign Coverage' in the magazine The Tablet (you can read it here ), I grumble intemperately about Western - and yes, primarily US - coverage of Russia. That's certainly not to say all US cov...

In the first In Moscow's Shadows to have a guest, I talk to Anna Arutunyan, analyst and writer on Russia (her The Putin's Mystique is well worth a read if you don't already know it) on her recent article in Foreign Affairs ( here ) on Russia's proposed anti-interference pact, and the question of sanctions and command and control of Moscow's meddling in general. In the seco...

Russia has long considered the so-called 'Near Abroad' of post-Soviet states to be its sphere of influence. But does it really have the will to assert hegemony? I'd suggest that it does not, in a whistle-stop tour from Belarus to Central Asia. In the second part, I look at some books that are new, or new to me, and think are worth highlighting: Tom Burgis, Kleptopia (William Collins...

Sergei Naryshkin, the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) and chair of the Russian Historical Society, has been a busy man this past week, involving himself in everything from Belarus to Medieval Tula (and schmoozing with Putin's ex-bodyguard in the process). Why the sudden desire to be in the media? Generally, when people like Naryshkin lay out their stall, it's because t...

I take a general look at Russian military intelligence, the fearsome GRU (OK, GU for purists), what it is and does and what it isn't and doesn't... And in the second part, I consider why it seems so hard for some people - Surkov, Levrov, and others - to leave government service. Why is it so hard to say goodbye? You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of th...

A short cellcast 'mini-podcast' released in this case simultaneously to Patrons and publicly. Recording this was, frankly, triggered by exasperation that so many were leaping aboard the 'Question More' bandwagon about the Navalny poisoning and following in the twisty and toxic trail of the Russian state propagandists in desperately trying to poke holes in the story rather than...

What is going on with Putin and his regime? Less of a distinct answer to that question, and more a pondering of what we can read into the mishandling of a series of recent events, from the Navalny poisoning to Belarus, I discuss why I think Russia is likely at a crossroads, but one where I am unsure where the roads necessarily lead... And after the break, I riff off the widespread practice of plag...

Released on 6 September to Patrons, public release later. A snapshot of the three key figures within Belarus's security structures: the new head of the KGB, the Interior Minister and the (newish) Defence Minister Support the show