HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull

We unpack the Santa Claus rally, fresh highs, and whether a breakout can carry into January while valuations press the limits. Mixed data on growth, jobs, and inflation rounds out the picture, plus clear tax moves and how to stay calm through normal volatility. • Santa Claus rally mechanics and odds • Breakout levels and 7,200 target context • Earnings growth near 14.8 percent and valuation risk •...

Headlines say inflation cooled and the market should cheer. We look under the hood and find a messier story: a payroll beat with downward revisions, an unemployment rate that’s climbed for four straight months, wage growth easing toward pre‑pandemic levels, and a core inflation print flattered by shelter math and holiday discounts. When bonds barely react and equities fail to reclaim a tight price...

A 25 bp rate cut grabbed headlines, but the real story is what comes next: dissent inside the Fed, a new liquidity backstop for short‑term Treasuries, and a policy path that hinges on data rather than promises. We walk through what this means for markets already wrestling with softer hiring, stubborn small‑business pain, and an equity tape that’s favoring breadth over megacap hype. AI‑driven produ...

Markets moved fast, the calendar moved faster, and we squeezed a full week of money insights into a pre‑Thanksgiving live show. We opened with the whiplash from post‑shutdown data: retail sales underwhelmed, producer inflation cooled, confidence slumped, and jobless claims held up. From there we connected the dots to price action, noting the rebound above key moving averages and a 10‑year yield dr...

Markets don’t freeze because of bad news; they freeze when the news goes missing. We open with the data gap created by the government pause, why uncertainty drives more volatility than either good or bad headlines, and how to ground your plan in what actually moves earnings: energy, labor, utilities, and durable demand. From the AI hype cycle to index concentration in the S&P 500, we talk thro...

Markets love a plot twist, and this week delivered more than one. We opened with two straight red weeks for the S&P 500, a deeper NASDAQ slide, and AI capex jitters sparked by a notable debt deal. Then came a brief rally on government funding progress that flipped into selling—a classic buy the rumor, sell the news turn. Under the hood, breadth stayed weak even with indexes near highs, and buy...

Headlines are loud, but your plan should be louder. We introduce our new weekly series—Market Monday, Tax Tuesday, Wealth Building Wednesday, and Think Ahead Thursday—and then get straight into what’s moving portfolios right now: a prolonged government shutdown, delayed primary data, and a market that’s strong on earnings yet weak on breadth. We break down the latest signals with plain talk. Manuf...

Markets are inching toward highs while cash yields fade and the data pipeline clogs from a long government shutdown. We unpack how a 25 bp Fed cut, a divided committee, and cooler odds for multiple cuts next year ripple through stocks, bonds, and your cash strategy. Earnings remain a bright spot, but leadership is narrow and expectations for megacaps are unforgiving. We talk through the trade truc...

Markets don’t only rise; they breathe. We walk through why a near-term pullback looks likely, how that can reset valuations in a healthy way, and what we’re doing inside managed portfolios to cushion volatility and prepare to buy quality assets at better prices. Rather than trying to guess exact turning points, we explain our practical approach: raise some cash into strength, keep watchlists tight...

Markets hate a vacuum, and that’s exactly where we’ve been living as a prolonged government shutdown starves investors of fresh data. We open with a candid read on equity whipsaws, then follow the thread to the 10-year Treasury slipping through 4% and the ripple effects of regional bank loan write-downs. From there, we zoom out to the CBO’s updated forecast, the broken four-decade downtrend in yie...

What if the best financial plan isn’t the one with the highest return, but the one that gives you back the most time? We dig into a practical framework that strips away noise and helps you make faster, clearer decisions by matching every dollar to a job and every risk to a choice you make on purpose. We start with the reality that time and money are your scarcest resources, then map the core plann...

We unpack the government shutdown’s real market impact, why the data blackout complicates Fed decisions, and how to stay invested with a clear risk plan. David shares three decades of lessons on preparation, behavior, annuities, and building portfolios that can take a hit and keep paying. • shutdown context, health-care disputes, and negotiation gridlock • market history during shutdowns and why m...

The housing market sits at a fascinating crossroads, caught between memories of 2008 and dreams of COVID-era pricing. In this illuminating episode, we welcome Chaz Lawrence, a realtor and property manager from St. Augustine, who brings invaluable ground-level insights into today's real estate landscape. Chaz paints a vivid picture of the current market disconnect: "Buyers think we'r...

Discover the hidden secrets to maximizing your Social Security benefits in this eye-opening episode featuring Brian Peluso, a partner at HBK Provenance Advisors and Social Security expert with over 15 years of experience navigating this complex system. Did you know your Social Security benefits could amount to over $1 million during your retirement? Despite widespread fears that the system is disa...