The Other Hand

Interest rate rises around the world now seem to be just a mater of time. How fixed is your mortgage? When environmental campaigners tell us ‘we are all doomed’ how do we react? Is this kind of messaging the way most likely to get us to make the necessary changes to or behaviour? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, vis...

For centuries, the ways in which many societies governed themselves were indistinguishable from mafia-type governance structures. Along came democracy, the rule of law and meritocracy. But how much has really changed? Have we just changed one set of feudal barons for another, albeit with a slightly thicker veneer of civilisation? As philosopher Michael Sandel says, meritocracy is a scam. Prominent...

Leading economist Duncan Weldon once again joins The Other Hand to discuss the issues of the day. In his own recent substack post Duncan noted that an ex-Chief Economist of the Bank of England recently stated that ‘economists have no general theory of inflation’. When you think about it, that’s quite a statement. The UK budget revealed another shape-shift for the Tory party. A Chancellor who belie...

Leading economist Duncan Weldon joins Chris in conversation about how tax revenues are giving finance ministers in Ireland and the UK much more room for manoeuvre - for now at least. Is the the UK government setting itself up for stringency now to be followed by pre-election giveaways? The British have a strange attitude towards financing de-carbonisation. The state of economic journalism. Modern...

In Jim’s absence (he always needs a couple of weeks off after the budget), Chris speaks to leading hedge fund manager Peter Van Dessel. An Irishman living in the USA, Peter brings a unique and insightful perspective to the current state of Ireland. He shares his thoughts on the ways in which supply shortages and inflation may well last an awful lot longer than many policy makers seem to think. Wit...

The budget was the expected smorgasbord of measures. A budget that makes abundant sense to a centrist. But in this age of populism, does it cut the political mustard? Can the centre hold? In the words of Yeats: Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere    The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all...

Budget 2022 arrives with amazing news about Ireland’s fiscal position. For once it is unambiguously good news. Why not spend all those extra tax revenues on much needed infrastructure? Health and housing? If you read much of Irish media and listen to opposition politicians, Ireland resembles a dystopian hell-hole. Others - inevitably outsiders - see the country as one of the most prosperous places...

Ireland’s tax take is extremely buoyant, at least for the first 9 months of the year. What to spend all the money on? can it last? Boris Johnson has discovered an economic ideology. One that makes no sense whatsoever but is an interesting departure. He is finally accountable for something that can be measured. But Tories don’t like ideologies, least of all one that is a sort of anti-business Neand...

The world economy is slowing down. Asia, including China, is weakening. European indicators are flashing Amber. Britain’s bosses are warning about a collapse in confidence. The energy shock, if it persists, could lead to even more trouble. A small thing perhaps, but a British minister has, finally, admitted that Brexit involves an economic ‘transition’. That’s code for ‘problem’. Maybe even ‘troub...

Rising oil and gas prices join the long list of things joining the inflation party. How are central banks going to react? Is this the end of the long party for stock markets? Is this an energy crisis that could bring the post-pandemic recovery to a juddering halt? ‘Conspicuous environmentalism”. Surely it’s time for leadership and honesty? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss thi...

We ignore history. Policymakers certainly do. But there is very little new under the sun. Duncan Weldon reminds us that we ignore history at our peril. And peril is where we are at. There is so much in this unusually readable book. ‘Levelling up’ is at least a century old, despite Boris Johnson taking credit for its invention. Want to know what some of today’s Trump-Johnson-Orban leaders resemble...

Is China and it’s indebted property companies reliving the West’s Great Financial Crisis? Gas prices and inflation and a cost of living crisis? Empty shelves for Christmas? Regular journey’s by road and sea between Britain and Ireland: a changing perspective. A radically different perspective. The Other Hand is completely free to read & listen. Please spare a few seconds and give us a review on Ap...

The annual budget circus has started. Love Island is more entertaining and only marginally less significant. Why do we do this to ourselves? Years ago, politicians deemed themselves incapable of managing monetary policy and the all-important setting of interest rates was handed over to technocratic central bankers. Surely the same considerations apply to taxation & spending policies? This is a pub...

Some personal reflections on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11. And some stuff on the budget and interest rates This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Economist has a big piece this week on ‘the rise of the illiberal left’. That newspaper is as worried about the extreme left as it is about the totalitarian right. So are we. One aspect of political extremism is lying. Chris’s written piece on this is questioned by Jim - not uncritically! Economic forecasting is an exercise in futility. Most of the time. This is a public episode. If you would...

Lots of economic data over past few days, all pointing to very robust growth as the economy reopens. Plenty of questions remain over the sustainability of that growth. Almost all countries are in the same post-pandemic (we hope!) boat: a big surge in growth but supply constraints and a changed labour market raise plenty of questions. Another shiny new housing plan but how robust are its foundation...

So much shallow thinking is applied to so many of our problems. Not least housing. But also low pay and inequality. The Fed gets all this, even if many do not Why does Dublin stink? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Hong Kong stock market is off 20% from its high earlier this year. That’s the conventional definition of a bear market. Is this the start of something big - the long-awaited global market correction - or is it just down to China’s attempts to cut it giant corporations down to size? What is China actually up to? It’s not easy to question the environmental consensus. Those that do so are vilifie...

Anger is not a strategy. You won’t get lower house prices or lower rents by shouting at the people who bring you the facts. You certainly won’t get more houses if you vote for politicians who magnify and exploit your anger. Following the Great Financial Crisis there was the age of austerity. The Covid crisis is shaping up to be the exact opposite. The tragedy unfolding in Afghanistan was surely av...

Jim takes us through the latest economic news Why has the environment become so political? Surely it’s just a big problem that needs a solution without left and right taking swings at each other? Ireland is, at last, a big vaccination success. Is this because there are fewer anti-vax nutcases? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus...

What does economic normality look like? We suggest that nothing will be normal until interest rates rise. Zero interest rates are connected to lots of things: income and wealth inequality, ever higher house prices. But have we turned Japanese? And has Australia quietly moved on from zero covid? recognising that it is a ‘forever strategy’? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this...

Jim has been travelling but thinks he might need to keep it quiet. China has taken a sledge hammer to its education and tech sectors. Why? Latest IMF economic forecasts on a watershed day for the Irish Economy. Some Covid arithmetic explaining why vaccinated people turning up in hospital is not as worrying as first appears. And young people looking for their pitchforks. This is a public episode. I...

Latest inflation news on both sides of the Atlantic has been grim. The debate goes on: is the surge in prices temporary? Lots of data on the Irish economy and a changed future fiscal stance: more spending for longer. The state of our politics: the usual suspects call this austerity. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes,...

Anyone heading off after July 19th should steel themselves for sticker shock, not least for car rental prices. Inflation continues its global creep. Boris Johnson look a worried man - for very good reason. The numbers don’t support what he is doing - or at least reveal a massive gamble. Just as England’s social problems reveal a very troubled country. This is a public episode. If you would like to...

Boris Johnson has always been a gambler. His biggest yet is the decision to lift all Covid restrictions on July 19th. Latest eurozone economic data suggest the long awaited lift-off. Are all newspaper articles still written by real people? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Ac...