Threadguy Live

Threadguy is the most crypto-pilled he's ever been, even with the tailwinds gone, and explains why he still just wants to own it. Plus whether crypto Twitter consensus is early or already priced in, the long history of state-sponsored honeypots, the study showing dead people make the best investors, and the failed vote to impeach Pete Hegseth.

Threadguy responds to TJR declaring the death of crypto Twitter and explains why crypto was never supposed to be cool in the first place. He breaks down the subculture cycle that killed CT, the narrative he thinks is poisoning a generation, and why Nvidia shedding $400 billion over Jensen's affair with an alleged Chinese spy doesn't add up.

Threadguy is crypto-pilled all over again. He breaks down why the alternative money thesis feels as strong as it's ever been, reacts to the Paraguay bank run that froze 3 million people out of their accounts, and explains why sending a simple wire is about to get a lot harder. Plus the new title sponsor, the market open bounce, Elon vs SoftBank, and the Democrats' AI trade problem.

Thread opens by thanking Satoshi for unstoppable money and recaps losing a basketball championship to Rasmr's team, then gets political for real: the midterm blowout, JD Vance's post-mortem, and how much a president can actually get done. Then the market crashes, semis down over 30% and the Nasdaq down 7%, as data center bans and anti-AI campaigns pile up.

Thread opens on a weekend of doomscrolling, from Tucker Carlson's Iran nuke warning to a $288K PSA 10 Dragonite that turned out to be fake, plus the AI image nobody can call. Mert from Helius calls in to break down the hacking wave hitting exchanges, fridges and nuke alert systems, where the real risk sits, and whether Hyperliquid is exposed.

Threadguy reacts to ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, partnering with TradeXYZ on Hyperliquid and Stanley Druckenmiller's first tweet ever, plus Google's $400B drop and why ads inside LLMs could be the best business ever. Then the emergency stream: Binance gets exploited for $5.5B, Tether and Circle freeze funds, and what the biggest hack in internet history means for trust in crypto.

Threadguy opens the FOMC double header with a Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas rant aimed at Crypto Twitter, then gets into Instinct's $30B raise, Google's Genie 4 and the gaming super cycle, China boycotting La Liga over Mbappe's Mao meme, Microsoft's 60,000 buyouts and the AI layoff wave, Robinhood out-earning stocks with prediction markets, and Kevin Warsh's press confere...

Threadguy kicks off FOMC week asking whether AI cyber risk is the next COVID, and whether anyone actually saw COVID coming. He breaks down the GMO hack, where attackers are executing terrible trades in customers' accounts, then explains why the only real doomsday prep is raising cash. Plus Dario's aging arc, Jason Calacanis going bearish on Bitcoin while long Tao, and why Bitcoin is the...

Anthropic filed its S-1 and Threadguy reads it live: 1,300% revenue growth, 900% net revenue retention, and a risk section admitting it may lose control of its own AI. Before that, Samsung TVs are caught listening to everything in your house, and Brazil's market dumps 28% on a surprise election result. Then Qiao Wang of Alliance DAO joins as the face of the bulls to explain why the dumbest pe...

Jack Surveillor is a solo trader who dropped out of college, interned at two funds, and just had the best two weeks of his life calling the bottoms on PUMP, Lighter and CARDS. He breaks down why he only trades the smallest market that can hold his size, how he sizes a position up to 70% of his book with zero leverage, and the strict drawdown rule that keeps him in the game. Plus the Robinhood inte...

Tayvano, one of crypto's most trusted security researchers, joins at 7am her time, the morning after AI-assisted researchers found two remote code execution bugs in PHP, the language behind most of the web. She breaks down how bad it actually is, the certificate authority whose private key turned out to be a joke, and why crypto may be better prepared for this than the rest of the internet. A...

Thread makes the case that crypto, built in a dark forest of nonstop hacker attacks for 16 years, is better prepared for the AI hacking wave than the rest of the internet. He reads Dan Robinson's "Ethereum is a Dark Forest," explains why banks still win when they can reverse a hack (see Phil Ivey's $9.6M baccarat payback), breaks down Togi's $1M Moderna trade, and digs int...

Threadguy tells the story of Amaranth, the 2006 hedge fund that bet a third of its book on one natural gas trader, and how Ken Griffin turned its collapse into a billion dollars. Then the PHP exploit found with AI, what sneaker botting teaches about offense vs defense, why public trader beef is good for markets, and why crypto looks fine while the bear case plays out everywhere else.

Threadguy is officially back on the winning team. After a night of commencement speeches and More Money Than God, he lays out why the AI unwind hasn't dragged crypto down, the faked chart behind the greatest trade of Black Monday, and why reasoning by analogy is a waste of time. Plus the Kimchi phenomenon, why AI drug discovery is running out of lab monkeys, and Bloomberg's biggest crypt...

Threadguy is back from the long weekend and revisits Black Monday 1987 after the internet spent three days predicting a sequel. Then the $1M FedEx heist of PSA graded Pokemon cards, who is actually guarding the card vaults, why an old GPU is worth more than he paid for it, a three story gacha arcade in NYC, the lore behind the Onion Futures Act, and South Korea's fake food delivery apps.

Thread pulls an all nighter on AI slop Pokemon games and makes the case that AI video and gaming are just good. Then the Tesla demo where Elon made the Roadster fly and Thread somehow still lost money on the trade, plus the eat the rich momentum, Strategy getting dropped from MSCI, and the unpatched Erewhon method for meeting girls.

Leaked Anthropic Q3 numbers, a hot CPI print and the CoreWeave debt panic send everything AI into a tailspin, and Threadguy watches it from 100% cash. He gets into what the slowdown really says about the frontier labs, why he's stuck trusting Flood, the Leopold wipeout at the open, and whether dividend stocks make any sense next to the 30 year. Closes on Bumble getting bought out and the app...

Based16z, the trader who farmed Hyperliquid full time before it became the most profitable airdrop ever, sits down with Threadguy for his first interview since 2024. They get into how he nearly fumbled the airdrop, what life changing money actually does to you, the Snapchat and Sydney Sweeney trades, and how much Twitter really moves markets. Closes on his Loot and Rob thesis, his relationship wit...

After Justin Drake's bunker mode post and OpenAI's math results sent crypto into a cryptography panic, Threadguy sits down with Mert, NEAR founder Illia Polosukhin and cryptographer ZK Dragon to find out how worried we should actually be. They cover how close AI really is to cracking the math, what quantum computers will actually be pointed at, how chains would respond if the worst case...

Threadguy comes back from three days off sold on the AI gaming renaissance, then breaks down the $86M Ledger supply chain hack and what it means for cold storage. After the Justin Drake post got crypto labeled an AI loser, he walks through how the SaaSpocalypse actually played out, the race to AI-proof cryptography, why memecoins need perfect conditions, and the based16z take on the death of legac...

Rhino has been trading full time since 2019, counts a full market cycle as the only real test, and has done one interview in years. He walks through how he started, why longevity beats any single trade, the ball tingle style that is really 12 years of pattern recognition, his favorite setup of fading whatever narrative the whole market is fixated on, how he actually uses Twitter and why contrarian...

Solana Doomer is an anonymous momentum trader with 2,000 followers, a day job, and a public Hyperliquid PnL that says he is up $25 million this year. He walks through the run from $30K of T-bills to eight figures, the ETH ICO bag he forgot about for eight years, why he trades entirely from his phone, the one trait that lets him hold through drawdowns most people can't, the $7 million he burne...

Justin Drake's bunker mode post lands the morning after OpenAI drops 400 open math problems, and Threadguy opens by working through what the AI cryptography scare actually means for crypto, why both the longs and the shorts are coping, and whether 82K means it's priced in or you're early. Then Doug Colkitt joins for the full interview: what OpenAI really released, where Justin Drake...

Threadguy opens on the AI game-modding renaissance, then the Russian plague story he refuses to believe, a pandemic denier until he is coughing up blood and the one bear case that has actually shaken him. After market open, the CFTC's new rules and why the Clarity Act failing is a gift, whether a Democrat win in 2028 is bearish, and a rant on why crypto's image doesn't matter.

Threadguy walks through closing his second largest perp trade ever, a $315K Zcash win, and why selling was the right call with the wrong execution. The forced-seller trap on leverage, why this cycle's alts can run without Bitcoin, the case for stacking perp profits into spot, the mandate of heaven, and a rant on why crypto Twitter costs you money. Closes on bears sound smart, bulls make money...