This Means War

Poland is an outlier in Europe: a state that has been willing to resource the national security statements of political leaders made in 2022, and cognisant of observations about high intensity combat being seen in Ukraine after the latest Russian invasion. Unlike other European capitals, Warsaw has funded a recapitalisation of its military based on a philosophy that puts aside a promsied future of...

One year on from starting the podcast, the production team persuaded me to answer some of the most popular questions that get sent into the show. In this episode we cover the three top issues posed to us: (1) What havent we covered that is important and why? (2) Are the latest set of Defence Reviews any good? (3) what are Western states learning from Ukraine? and (4) What is exciting over the comi...

Even as Russia rebuilds its way of fighting and combat power over the next 3-5 years, those forces should be easily overmatched by NATO (on paper at least) in combat operations provided Russian air and missile defences can be destroyed. The package to do that, according to Professor Justin Bronk of RUSI, is quite within European states ability to deliver: allowing them to then fight the air-to-air...

Even planning a non-combatant evacuation operation is politically and diplomatically fraught – the signals it sends to a host country are rarely desirable. Yet somehow embassy staff around the world build contingencies for the unexpected. And they are – sometimes – needed, as we have seen over the past two weeks in Sudan. Peter Talks to Ewan Lawson, a former NEO planner for the British military an...

China's agreements on strip mining and rare earth mineral extraction opened the door to significant engagement between foreign governments and the Taliban in Kabul. Yet behind the scenes, the ISKP have been building a base of support from various groups across the North, East and West of the country. Anant Mishra, soldier-scholar and researcher of the region, talks to Peter about the potential for...

When you read the words 'inventory management' most military people turn the page. Don't. This conversation about logistics (and that doesn't include HR, Catering, Admin, or movement), pushes the boundaries of discussion by cheerleading for some process and business-as-usual, as well as experts and proper use of data in making decisions. At the heart of the matter sits in lethality and effectivene...

Western political and military leaders seem to be doing a lot of hard talking about military capability these days, yet people and talent issues seem to be rather lower on their agenda than the excitement over technological 'silver bullets'. Poor recruiting and retention rates make planned force designs look increasingly untenable, something which no amount of technology is going to solve in the s...

Special Forces in contemporary warfare will be expected to conduct operations 'By, with and through': enabling local partners to fight against common foes. Back in 2015, elements of the UAE Presidential Guard deployed to Aden in Yemen in an attempt to forestall and turn back a seemingly inevitable Houthi annexation. It could have been the decisive moment in a campaign that had seen the Houthi rebe...

All wars have elements of attrition in them – like it or not. Battles of attrition are not linear either, they depend – to a large extent – on battlespace geometry. Peter is joined by Dr Jack Watling for one of their monthly chats – this time about attrition, from the 19 th Century to today. Their conversation turns covers themes of people, leadership, logistics, casualties, ideation, and time, an...

Why is winning a war so hard? According to Dr Mike Martin, realism seems to be missing in the formation of strategy to fight wars. Evidence to support this abounds from Russia and the West over the past 25 years, and there is an interesting conversation to be had about why that is. Peter talks to Mike about the other intangibles of war so often overlooked – particularly logistics, morale and train...

Peter talks to Professor Katarzyna Zysk from IFS in Oslo about Russian military AI development, from the core reasons it is being pursued to the implementation plans and their maturity index of outputs. Most worrying perhaps is the discussion on ethical limitations (or lack thereof) being imposed on developers in Russia, whether in the realm of Lethal Autonomous Weapons or in experimentation with...

Peter talks to the inimitable Whit Mason, a strategic communications guru, about why the Ukrainian information operations campaign has been so successful over the past year during Russia's invasion of their country. They talk about the strengths and weaknesses of President Zelenskyy's communications campaign, and where the opportunities and threats lie for the next phase of the war. What emerges f...

How have cyber conflicts played out between Russia and Ukraine? Over the last decade the idea of cyber war had been widely hailed as a horse/tank moment in warfare, perhaps more even: speeches were made about the cyber domain would have the ability to determine the future of battlefields, and to make armies, air forces and navies irrelevant. And Russia has always been noted to be be a Tier One cyb...

Meeting the challenges of both conventional and irregular warfare requires mutually exclusive forces specialised in acting against each one. Peter talks to Dr Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at RUSI in London, about why a military force designed for conventional warfare is ineffective at irregular warfare; the verso also applies. There are a myriad of reasons - from embedded...

Peter talks to Ankit Panda from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace about all things North Korea, but specifically their nuclear missile programme. After a busy 2022, it appears as though Kim Jong-un's hermit kingdom will continue a similar pace of testing and developments over the next 12 months – increasing further the risk of a clash on the peninsula. Add to that the changing nature...

According to some we are living in both a Post Islamist Age, as well as a Post Liberalist one. And if you read the media, terrorism doesn't appear any more. But it hasn't disappeared. How can we better understand Islamist and Islamic violent extremism better, giving us a better chance to successfully build strategies and policies to combat radicalisation and counter terrorism? Peter talks to Dr Ad...

This year Turkey celebrates its 100th anniversary; 2023 will also bring a summer with elections that could see (according to some polls) President Recep Erdogan replaced. Yet, according to Ziya Meral, don't expect to see a huge change in foreign policies no matter who takes power. Like other Western states, Turkey has been balancing interests and values since the creation of the republic by Mustaf...

Since 1991 space has become an intrinsic part of warfare: from the liberation of Kuwait to Allied experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, militaries have become increasingly reliant on access to space systems for navigation, communication, surveillance, and the use of sophisticated weapons. Facing a leading space power, and without a sovereign space capability of their own, Ukraine has turned to a co...

What did the Ukrainian forces learned from their experiences fighting the Russian military during 2022? Peter talks to Dr Jack Watling about how the Ukrainian military have been learning lessons, and what they have learned. As well as a wider discussion on combat in the rest of the world during 2022.

The shock and surprise expressed by Western politicians after Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine heralded reviews of defence policies across Europe. The UK was amongst those states that committed to refresh their policies in light of Russian actions – a process that is underway and due to produce recommendations sometime in early 2023. Ben Barry talks to Peter about some of the inconvenien...

The Chinese military has come a long way since 2008. In size, professionalism, deployability, operational experience, and capability development. One might be awe struck with the rapidity of their growth and capacity for production but Beijing will be observing the Russian and Ukrainian experiences from that war in 2022 with a view to overcoming some of their own core issues. Understanding the his...

Big contracts are being let for new aviation systems. From the B21 and FLAA in the US, to FCAS and Tempest in Europe, 6 th generation air platforms are all the rage in government investment decisions at the moment. Dr Justin Bronk wonders whether these can make a difference to a much more challenging environment than has been assumed in Western capitals. The airspace over Ukraine is a deadly envir...

A really capable combined arms force can have a disproportionate impact on a small war. It can have much less effect in a large one. Discussing his article on Wars in a Fishbowl, Amos Fox talks to Peter about why Battalion Tactical Groups from the Russian army have had little success in Ukraine when all their experiences over the previous two decades had told them that BTGs were the sure-fire rout...

When Svechen and Hamley were writing about the operational level of war, it is doubtful they envisaged the number of staff and headquarters that would result from their musings. Their reason to exist is often purported to be scale, complexity, or pace in war today but this might all be just hype from academics and their acolytes. Remove the operational level staffs and processes, says Wilf Owen, a...

The use of missiles – of every variety – around the world has been increasing over the past 5 years. Whether targeting critical national critical infrastructure, economic targets, military bases and units, capital ships, or for signalling intent, missiles seem to be playing a greater role than previously (and not just in Ukraine). Peter talks to Tom Karako, Director of the Missile Defence Project...