The Political Risk Podcast

Dan Callow is lead underwriter for political violence, terrorism and war lines of business at specialty insurer and reinsurer IQUW. The political violence market can be characterised as competitive. Pricing is soft and driven by a growing number of insurance companies collectively offering a large volume of direct and facultative capacity. The underlying risks are best described as volatile, with...

A special episode, in association with Mosaic Insurance, focused on the political violence outlook for the US Presidential Election set for November 5 2024. Tina Fordham is a geopolitical strategist and advisor, and founder of Fordham Global Foresight. Adam McGrath is the global head of war, terrorism and political violence at Mosaic.

Savannah Thompson is The Fidelis Partnership’s head of political risk and underwriting development. She’s also a great example of young female talent and career progression in the London market. In this episode we talk about: tips for industry joiners and her remarkable career so far; The Fidelis Partnership's new Syndicate 3123 at Lloyd’s; and the role of political risk in sustainability projects...

Sub-Saharan Africa’s mining industry is highly exposed to political risk and particularly expropriatory acts by host governments. In this special episode, in association with Gallagher Specialty, Rupert Morgan, Executive Director, Structured Credit and Political Risks, Arthur J. Gallagher International, focuses on five countries: Burkina Faso; Mali; Ghana; Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania...

The CrowdStrike outage is the latest cyber event to leave underwriters fearing unforeseen catastrophe scenarios and questioning cyber risk aggregations. But could the dramatic headlines and re/insurance buzz about cyber cat be a whole lot of hyperbole? Tom Johansmeyer, global head of index classes, Price Forbes Re, and a POLIR PhD candidate at the University of Kent, Canterbury, certainly thinks s...

WTW’s Political Risk Index analyses patterns in the world’s most vulnerable countries. Its latest report charts the decline of the rules-based international order, with all that that entails for peace, democracy, free trade and cross-border investment. Sam Wilkin, WTW’s director of political risk analytics, oversees the index, as well as a political risk survey, and a predictive model, to project...

Carbon is tipped to become ‘the next cyber’ for insurance, a future trillion dollar market, as organisations launch net zero projects to curb climate change and trade carbon credits. Most carbon investment comes from the West, but most carbon projects happen in the Global South. This episode features James Kench, head of insurance at Kita, a Lloyd's MGA that insures carbon, and is launching a new...

A multipolar world meets the weaponization of the global financial system, and the Bretton Woods institutions at the core of the rules/norms-based international order are facing unprecedented challenges. A special episode, in association with Mosaic, featuring Finn McGuirk, Mosaic’s head of political risk, and Maximilian Hess, political risk analyst, principal of Enmetena Advisory, FPRI Fellow and...

An episode dedicated to political risk and investor confidence in a selection of African territories, featuring Africa Specialty Risks’ head of political risk & trade credit, Genevieve Ahinful, and senior liability underwriter, Tyrone Hopwood. South Africa has a new coalition government. Rwanda is preparing for an election in July. Kenya has debt and supply chain issues. Egypt faces macroecono...

Featuring Tom Clementi, CEO of Pool Re, the UK's government-backed mutual reinsurance fund for terrorism risk. We discuss freshly agreed plans to transform Pool Re's operating model into a treaty reinsurer. Tom also talks about the IFTRIP 2024 international meeting of terrorism pools, hosted by the US Treasury. Cyber reinsurance and the role of government-backed PPPs like Pool Re was on the agenda...

This is a war risk insurance flavoured episode, featuring Michael Burle, head of marine at Liberty Specialty Markets, and Neil Roberts, secretary of the Joint War Committee, and head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd's Market Association. We discuss the Red Sea Crisis of Houthi attacks on shipping, plus Somali piracy activity in the Gulf of Aden, and we also talk about re/insuring Ukrainian war...

The liberal international order, sometimes called Pax Americana, is in decline, but it's unclear what happens next. In this episode we explore the concept of geopolitical 'interregnum' as a framework for markets and insurers to consider the business environment. Michael Feller is a partner at Geopolitical Strategy, based in Melbourne, who has held senior roles in Australia’s foreign service and pr...

Two political violence interviews from the recent GAIF34 event in Oman. The first focuses on South Africa before the country's tense general election in May. Carla Jordan is CEO of London-based Santam Specialist Business, and CEO of Santam-owned, Johannesburg-based MGA, Emerald Risk Transfer. The second conversation is with Rafic Abi Saleh, assistant vice president, war & terrorism at Liberty...

A special episode in association with Mosaic Insurance. Guests Yosha DeLong, global head of cyber, Mosaic Insurance, and Jason Nurse, reader in cyber security, University of Kent, discuss the need for greater alignment between insurance, corporate and government stakeholders for managing cyber security, particularly against the heightened threat posed by ransomware attacks.

Sir Stewart Eldon, KCMG OBE, is a consultant and former senior diplomat. His diplomatic postings include serving as UK permanent representative to NATO, ambassador to Ireland, and as the UK’s deputy permanent representative to the UN in New York. He advises Transparency International on counter-corruption in defence, and is senior civil adviser to the Higher Command & Staff College at the UK D...

Bruce Carman is founder and chief underwriting officer of HIVE Underwriters. To coincide with the two-year anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when Russia's government seized many western aircraft, this episode focuses on the aviation war insurance market in the period since then. Reinsurers have withdrawn capacity and increased prices exponentially, and last year a civil war in Suda...

John Hulsman is a political risk analyst and best-selling author. A Washington insider, John is a life member of the US Council on Foreign Relations, and served as a senior research fellow in geopolitics and foreign policy at the Heritage Foundation. He has made a name for himself as a pre-eminent predictor of geopolitical risk. His new book draws on realist case studies in American political hist...

This episode features Chris Holt, CEO of Lloyd's broker and advisory CHC Global, and a former British Army bomb disposal officer. We discuss CHC's Annual Malicious Risk Report 2024, which has three themes: political polarisation; the implications of energy transition; and the race for technological superiority.

Insurers are used to catastrophe risk models, but modelling terrorism and PV, such as marauding attacks or outbreaks of civil unrest, is a very different challenge. Stephen Tench, Gallagher Re's head of Middle East & Africa catastrophe analytics, is a pioneer on this subject, employing fresh data for frequency as well as severity, adapting existing modelling techniques, and harnessing the revo...

Michele Wucker is a best selling author, strategist, speaker, and qualified risk director. A strategic advisor and global economic policy expert, Michele coined the term “Gray Rhino” as a call to decision makers to improve how they respond to obvious, probable, impactful risks. A former media and think tank executive drawing on decades of experience in global finance and economics, she works at th...

Tensions are high between Xi's China and Taiwan. Taiwanese elections in January could be the next flashpoint. The risk of conflict has been a live wire of Asian geopolitics since China’s civil war ended, splitting the island from the Communist mainland. Taiwan is a top exporter of semiconductors and sits astride a maritime trade artery. In early 2023, Lloyd’s undertook an RDS-style exercise to gat...

A conversation with Elizabeth Stephens of Geopolitical Risk Advisory, on events in Israel, Gaza and the threat of regional escalation for the Middle East. We also discuss the rising emphasis on geopolitical risk for financial services firms, advice for entities with operations in the Arab world, and the respective roles of Iran, Russia and China in the ongoing conflict.

Political stability and food prices are closely linked. This episode with Crispin Hodges, head of trade political risk, Canopius, looks at the effects of Russia's decision not to renew the Ukrainian grain corridor deal and a resulting drop in Black Sea grain exports. If food costs increase and grain shortages ensue, how will this impact emerging economies in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa?

Latin America is a political violence hotspot. SRCC claims in some territories have surpassed natural catastrophe losses, driving insurers to exclude these risks, in turn resulting in strong demand for standalone political violence products. This episode focuses on the threat landscape and likely triggers. Guests: Napoleon Montes-Amaya, head of Hiscox Miami; Mario Andrés Salcedo, head of terrorism...

Frédéric Denèfle is the president of IUMI, and MD of marine war risk insurer Garex. Neil Roberts is head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd’s Market Association, and secretary of the Joint War Committee. This episode looks at marine war risk in the Black Sea, the "Dark Fleet" of tankers, and the war risk and geopolitical focus for marine insurance at IUMI 2023.