The Macro Compass

Clinton’s political adviser Carville once said: ‘‘I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.’’ At the end of 1994, 10-year Treasury yields climbed over 8% in response to increasing US fiscal deficits. The Clinton administration made an effort to reduce defic...

One of the best European government bond traders (and a good friend) on the street has his alarm set to ring at 6.15am every morning. Every morning, the alarm rings and asks him ‘’How consensus are my trades?’’ Markets have moved sharply year-to-date, and in one clear direction: short Cathie Wood and Bitcoin, long cyclicals (banks & oil). This relative stance has now likely become consensus. While...

15’ reading time A good friend and hedge fund portfolio manager once told me: ‘‘You see that guy? He likes chasing screens. Once the news is already out, any information asymmetry you perhaps had it’s gone. You can’t successfully trade old news. Don’t chase the screens ’’. Yes, QT matters. No, QT ≠ mayhem. Quantitative Tightening is now old news : everybody and their mother are talking about it, a...

12’ reading time Hey everybody, welcome back to The Macro Compass! This is a special edition. We have the pleasure to welcome back a great macro strategist and friend: Andreas Steno Larsen. I sat down with him for a fireside Q&A session on his global macro and asset allocation views - enjoy! We are in the late ‘80s. Ross Johnson, the CEO of the massive food and tobacco corporation RJR Nabisco, att...

15’ reading time Hey everybody, welcome back to The Macro Compass! What’s the Macro End Game? In short, another great reset of our monetary system . We often talk about what markets are going to do next month, or this year. We like the feeling of being in control of asset class performances: after all, achieving consistent alpha year after year is has remained an elusive task for many. Hence, we m...

18’ reading time Good morning everybody and welcome back to  The Macro Compass! This article will break down last week’s Central Bank meetings : why and what should you care about, and what does that mean for your portfolio. Specifically, we are going to touch upon: * The most interesting (yet overlooked) takes from ECB/Fed meetings and what to pay attention to in 2022 * The resulting overweight/u...