The Global Gambit

China’s partnerships are not alliances — they are transactions built on leverage, not loyalty. Beijing’s relationship with Russia is pragmatic and asymmetric, treating Moscow as useful rather than equal. As the war in Ukraine continues, China is learning carefully — avoiding overreach while building power quietly. At the same time, uncertainty around Donald Trump has pushed Europe to rearm, recogn...

The conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel is entering a far more complex and dangerous phase than many expected. In this conversation, I’m joined by Ali Vaez - Ir an Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President of the International Crisis Group to examine what is actually happening behind the headlines. Why the war has shifted into a grinding war of attrition, why Iran’s lea...

The United States has deployed one of its largest military buildups in the Middle East in decades — and yet, nothing has happened. So why assemble overwhelming force if conflict was never inevitable? In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Con Coughlin, Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor at The Daily Telegraph , to unpack the real strategy behind America’s military pressure on Iran. We explore h...

Summary In this episode I engage Larissa Brown, the defence editor at The Times, to discuss the current state of geopolitics, defence dynamics, and the implications of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They explore insights from the Munich Security Conference, the UK's defence spending, military readiness, and the evolving threat posed by Russia. The conversation also delves into the US-UK defence...

Summary In this conversation, Edward Lucas discusses the ongoing war in Ukraine, the influence of Donald Trump on NATO and European defense, and the shifting dynamics of power in Europe. He emphasises the need for Europe to enhance its military autonomy and the importance of a united front against Russia. Lucas also addresses the concept of the 'shadow fleet' and the implications of European actio...

Summary In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin engages with Trita Parsi, the Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute, to discuss the evolving geopolitical landscape in Iran and the broader Middle East. They delve into the implications of the recent leadership changes in Iran, particularly following the death of President Raisi, and how this has affected the political dynamics within the country. P...

Summary In this conversation, Martin Wolf discusses the current state of the global economy, emphasizing the importance of demographic changes, economic growth, and the resilience of economies in the face of challenges. He highlights the political fragility in Europe and the US, the risks associated with transatlantic relations, and the need for Europe to strengthen its position in a multipolar wo...

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Dmitri Alperovitch delve into the intricate relationship between geoeconomics and geopolitics, particularly in the context of the United States' National Security Strategy. They discuss the implications of Trump's approach to international relations, the challenges Europe faces in achieving strategic autonomy, and the complexities surrounding tariffs...

Summary In this episode of Global Gambit, host Pyotr Kurzin engages with Lawrence Freedman, a prominent figure in military strategy, to dissect the recent 28-point peace plan regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Kurzin expresses skepticism about the plan's legitimacy, noting its repetitive nature and the lack of serious diplomatic engagement. Freedman elaborates on the origins of the plan, highl...

Summary This conversation delves into the complex and evolving tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, focusing on the recent ceasefire, the role of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and the broader geopolitical implications of the Taliban's legitimacy. Michael Kugelman provides insights into the historical context of the violence, the political instability in Pakistan, and the international...

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Mitch Mechigian discuss the evolving landscape of geopolitics and finance, particularly focusing on the role of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. They explore Trump's shift from skepticism to support for crypto, the normalization of digital currencies among nation-states, and the implications of geopolitical events on the crypto market. The discussion...

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Martin Wolfe discuss the evolving landscape of global economics, focusing on the return to regionalism, the implications of geopolitical uncertainties, and the role of currencies in the modern economy. They explore the impact of Trump's trade policies, the rejection of globalization, and the future of the US dollar amidst rising nationalism and protec...

Summary In this conversation, Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the intricate geopolitical dynamics involving Russia, Iran, and China, focusing on Iran's nuclear ambitions and the implications of recent Israeli military actions. The dialogue explores the vulnerabilities of Iran's leadership, the reactions of global powers, and the potential future of negotiations surrounding Iran's nuclear program. The...

Summary In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Frank Giustra about the spiralling U.S. debt crisis, the fragility of dollar dominance, and how rivals like China and the BRICS bloc are accelerating moves away from the post-war financial order. From unfunded liabilities to currency alternatives, we unpack whether the U.S. is facing a market correction — or the beginning of the end of its global e...

Summary   This conversation delves into the intricate relationship between energy geopolitics and conflict, particularly focusing on the Iran-Israel tensions and the implications for global oil markets. Anas Al-Hajji provides insights into the strategic importance of the Hormuz Strait, the dynamics of oil pricing, and the roles of major players like the US and Russia in shaping energy po...

Ukraine’s frontline is holding, but the real battle may be behind closed doors. As peace talks falter, Russian forces regroup, and Western support for Kyiv begins to fray. In this episode, former UK Defence Attaché John Foreman joins me to unpack the fragile diplomacy, shifting battlefield tactics, and the deeper power struggles shaping the war’s next phase. We explore how Russia’s economy is adap...

In this episode l am rejoined by Ankit Panda as we delve into the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, particularly focusing on the recent military clashes and the implications of their nuclear doctrines. Ankit provides insights into the current crisis, comparing it to past conflicts and discussing the role of the United States in de-escalation efforts. The conversation also touches on...

In this podcast, I was joined by Candace Rondeaux to discuss her new book, Putin's Sledgehammer, on the rise and fall of Russia’s Wagner Group, particularly the aftermath of its 2023 mutiny. Candace explores the historical origins of the Wagner Group, its ties to Russia's mafia, and its key role in Russia's global operations. She delves into the evolution of the group under Prigozhin, highlighting...

Summary The conversation delves into the strategic significance of the Panama Canal amidst rising US-China tensions, exploring the implications of recent US military agreements and the Panamanian government's response to pressure from the Trump administration. Experts discuss the historical context of US-Panama relations, public sentiment in Panama, and the potential economic consequences of clima...

In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Mihaela Pappa discuss the evolving role of BRICS in the context of global politics, particularly in relation to US foreign policy under the Trump administration. They explore the implications of BRICS as a symbol of a multipolar world, its initiatives in development and health, and the challenges it faces in terms of internal dynamics and divergence among mem...

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Rohit Goel discuss the current state of the global economy, focusing on the impact of Donald Trump's presidency on economic policies, particularly regarding China and emerging markets. They explore the challenges facing China, the dynamics of U.S.-China relations, and the implications of de-dollarization. The discussion also touches on the potential f...

In this conversation, I am rejoined by Dmitri Alperovitch to delve into the latest of the Ukraine War, focusing on the diplomatic engagements between the US and Russia, the strategic decisions made by Ukraine, and implications of Trump's foreign policy. We discuss the limited leverage the US has in influencing both Russia and Ukraine, the challenges of negotiating peace, and the realities of a war...

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Chris Fenton discuss the emergence of DeepSeek, an AI technology developed in China, and its implications for US-China relations, national security, and the influence of technology on global narratives. They explore the role of open-source technology, the impact of platforms like TikTok, and the complexities of Trump's foreign policy towards China. Th...

In this episode, I react to and explain the implications of Trump's tariffs from both an economic and geopolitical perspective. I highlight the historical context of tariffs, their intended purpose, and the potential consequences for international relations and the US economy. I also argue that while tariffs may seem beneficial in the short term, they could lead to significant long-term challenges...

Welcome to the Global Gambit 2025 - after some minor time off, we're back with more conversations and content, including more from me. This time starting with the 5 biggest geopolitical risks and themes in 2025! This time Pyotr discusses the major geopolitical risks and themes that could shape 2025, including the implications of Donald Trump's return to power, the ongoing US-China strategic compet...