The Business Trendsetter Podcast

Who Challenges Your Thinking? Do You Need “Affirmative Action”? Last podcast we discussed how assumptions lead to biases which can lead to bad decision making.  We often don’t know what we don’t know, so we plunder forward hoping what used to work will continue to work.  But the world changes, and often we fail to change because nobody pressures us to change. The US Supreme Court is again looking...

Is the Situation at Facebook As Bad As It Seems? In 2023 Meta (Facebook’s owner) stock has dropped from $350 to $90.  That’s a market value loss of 75% in just a few months. INCREDIBLE! Are things really that bad?  Meanwhile, last week (between 10/25 and 10/28 of 2023) Apple, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta lost $420B of value in just 3 days!  It sounds like everything related to tech, or growth has gon...

We all have assumptions. We wouldn’t get anything done if we didn’t have assumptions. Built on facts, assumptions help us to focus on new problems rather than constantly resolving old problems.  Only….. the world changes.  The situational facts change. And assumptions become out of date.  When that happens we make bad decisions, because when we get the assumptions wrong everything goes wrong.   Th...

If you have a formal business education – like a BBA or MBA – you were taught how to do more, better, faster and cheaper.  You were taught to assume the customer will not change – in fact almost nothing will change.  Your job is to defend the business as it exists, and hopefully extend it just a bit.   Only, that is a path to ruin. Because the world is constantly changing. You have to know your cu...

All strategic planning should be forward based, and thus built on trends.  Scenario planning requires understanding trends, including their direction, speed of adoption and impacts.  Yet, many planners struggle to know the difference between a trend and a fad.  And many more don’t know how to measure trends – or track them. This podcast describes very clearly what a trend is, and how to distinguis...

We all like to do what’s easy. Studying trends, and evaluating their impact, is not easy – especially when looking at threats as well as possibilities.  It’s a lot easier to just hope the future will be like the past – but is hope really a strategy?   This podcast explains when you don’t study trends and plan for them you end up like millions of Floridians now without power, and homes.  It was ent...

From 2012 through 2019 most small and mid-size organizations started to see the need for more strategic planning, especially related to growth.  But then the pandemic happened, and their business either caught an unexpected growth wave – or hit a wall.  Either way, many stopped planning and began reacting to current events.  Then in 2021 the economy tried to restart, and supply chain disruptions l...

Queen Elizabeth II funeral drew over 4 Billion viewers. An incredible number of people from around the globe.  This podcast admits this caught Manny and Adam by surprise, and it indicates there is a very important need that the Queen fulfilled.  What is that need?  And will King Charles III meet that need?  We all can be caught off guard by new trends. When that happens, it indicates we aren’t ful...

Even though entertainment trends shifted to at-home (Netflix, et.al .) a decade ago, when the pandemic hit Cineworld (parent of Regal Cinemas) borrowed money to keep their theaters.  Now demand declines have continued and Cineworld is filing bankruptcy.  Better they should have done it in 2020, at least fewer debtors would have been harmed.  The company, and its lenders, refused to recognize trend...

Running a business is a lot of hard work.  Every day things can go wrong, customers complain and competitors take pot shots at you. But if you fall into just defending your business fixated on today’s issues you will fail. Success requires we all do scenario planning for the future.  This podcast tells us how to move beyond hearing about headlines, to applying those trends to our decisions about o...

For 15 years the trends have clearly pointed to the end of broadcast TV, and the decline of cable. In Q2 2022 more TV time was spent #streaming than on cable. From now on, infotainment and entertainment will be dominated by streaming. This #podcast interviews Dr. Rom Gayoso, who abandoned his career as an economist to launch a new media company.  Rom tells us his journey identifying the opportunit...

Smaller companies tend to focus on daily operations, and see activities in Washington DC as remote and unhelpful.  But the Inflation Reduction Act is setting aside $392B for environmental projects that are good opportunities for small companies.  Combined with the Chips act and the Infrastructure act there is well over $500B in money for smart business leaders ready to move on environmentally help...

What is a “tech” company?  Meta is a publisher. Amazon is a retailer.  Tesla sells cars, solar panels, whole house batteries and bores tunnels. Google makes nearly 100% of its revenue selling ads. Netflix makes and distributes entertainment.  Yet people think of these companies as tech companies. This #podcast explains why your biggest value may well be not in your product or solution, but rather...

Everyone gets stuck in their thinking. It is unavoidable.  Whether you are starting a new business, or trying to grow your current business, your mental assumption set gets in the way of alternatives.  And your internal biases, created from education and years of experience, cause you to fail defining a clear Value Proposition or finding alternative tactics for you Value Delivery System. This podc...

Wine sales have been a high growth market for years.  But there are hundreds of competitors, and the market has been dominated by well known, long historied and superbly financed competitors.  This podcast describes how in this competitive minefield Mark Beres successfully built a vineyard and wine brand.  By  (1) focusing on an underserved market [Arizona]  (2) building on the trend for locally s...

UK and Europe are suffering the hottest temperatures ever recorded.  Temps over 100° are dominating Texas and Oklahoma, running all the way through the Dakota’s. Wildfires out of control in western USA, Australia, France and Spain.  Record rainfall is washing away entire towns in Germany, while lakebeds go dry in Africa and California. Everyone sees climate change, yet some still deny it – and eve...

Elon Musk has walked away from his offer to buy Twitter.  Now the company is suing him to force the acquisition. Usually management, and the Board, love their company and try hard to avoid an acquisition. But at Twitter the founding CEO (Jack Dorsey) walked away, saying he didn’t know how to lead the company. And the Board has no idea how to lead the company. And Musk has said he doesn’t know how...

Growth is good.  Revenue growth hides a multitude of errors.  It is true that businesses are either growing, or dying.  Yet, it is a mistake to grow without a sustainable business model.  WeWork grew, but lacking a sustainable business model it crashed.  Amazon, Federal Express, Netflix, Facebook – all had sustainable business models that meant they could grow with other people’s money and grow wi...

Strategic Planning should be focused on the future.  Strategy should be built on forecasts based on trends.  And it has to be constantly  updated; not an annual or bi-annual event.  Because the world keeps changing and success requires we all keep updating our plans and making better decisions. This podcast walks through how recent Federal Reserve actions are changing our forecasts to prepare for...

Leaders are constantly faced with difficult decisions about investing for the future.  This Podcast reveals a sure-fire approach that can help you make these decisions faster, and better.  And even cover yourself when you make mistakes. Tesla pioneered the EV market, and its leader Elon Musk has become legendary.  But recently he has been way off trend, and tarnished his reputation, by forcing emp...

If you don’t have robust future scenarios that you use to guide your decision making, then you’re letting inertia drive your planning. You’re letting your past push you into the future, even if it’s pushing you the wrong direction.  To succeed you have to create robust scenarios, and then make decisions that send you in the direction to take advantage of those scenarios.  And you should be updatin...

2022 has been terrible for equity holders.  The DJIA down 15%; S&P down 18%. After the longest bull run in stock history, the bears are taking over.  And no stocks have been hit harder than growth stocks.  Does that mean our mantra of “grow, grow, grow” was wrong – or is now out of date?   This podcast explains why events unrelated to company performance are driving down growth company valuations....

Last week Netflix lost $50B of market cap in one day.  Since it's November peak the stock is down 50%.  These are huge investment losses, and is causing many people to say Netflix' good days are behind it. This podcast explains why this way of thinking probably isn't so, and why Netflix is most likely very undervalued due to the recent sell-off. While net new subscribers is slowing, cancellations...

For nearly 60 years there has been a universal trend toward greater international trade.  We called this trend Globalization.  This trend increased exports from America, and dramatically increased imports as American companies sourced from other countries.  Everything from manufacturing to assembly to computer coding to security tracking to customer service and much more was outsourced and off-sho...

This podcast reviews the history of Twitter, and why it is in such a business predicament.  From start-up through 2013 Twitter delivered on its Value Proposition of connecting like minded people organically, and providing an ad platform for reaching potential customers and growing your business.  Under CEO Costolo Twitter had revenue growth and revenue/user growth that beat both Facebook and Amazo...