Odd Lots

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has kicked off a giant mess in the world of commodities and sent prices surging. Commodities trader Pierre Andurand has made his name from navigating volatile energy markets, correctly positioning for negative prices oil in April 2020. Now, he sees tightness in the energy market staying for some time. On this episode of Odd Lots, he tells Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Allow...

The soaring price of electricity, particularly in Europe, is once again causing a search for alternative sources of power. Obviously there's a lot of interest in wind and solar -- the classic renewables. But due to their intermittency, it's difficult to use them to sustain the power grid without some kind of backup. Enter nuclear power? On this episode of Odd Lots, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has set off a new wave of concern about cyber attacks. Indeed, there were already reports of some in the run up to the war—like when hackers reportedly targeted U.S. gas producers. But while worries about cyber attacks have been around for a long time, it remains hard to get a handle on the actual threat. Such attacks aren’t all that visible and information on them is...

Harsh sanctions have been imposed against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. However, the country's energy exports have largely been spared. One significant reason for this is Germany's high dependence on Russian energy, particularly natural gas. So how did Germany wind up in this situation? And why didn't it take steps years ago to start weaning itself off of this dependency? We discuss this wi...

U.S. and E.U. countries have unveiled extraordinarily tough sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. But what effect will they have? Are they tough enough? And will Russia feel a significant amount of pain as long as the sanctions don't include energy? On this episode, we speak with sanctions researcher Edoardo Saravalle about the existing sanctions, their power, what more can be don...

Even prior to Russia's attack on Ukraine, the global economy was facing an extraordinary moment. Now things have become massively more complex. In addition to the attack itself, rich Western governments have unveiled historically powerful sanctions against Russia, most notably by freezing much of the country's FX reserves. So what are the immediate and long term ramifications? On this episode, we...

Some truckers make good money and have a high degree of control of their schedule. Others work for low pay under exceptionally difficult conditions. Port truckers, in particular, have dealt with poor pay, high debts, wage theft, and other difficult conditions. But an effort is being made to organize for a better situation. On this episode, we speak with Ron Herrera, Director of the Teamsters Port...

GDP is booming. The labor market is booming. However inflation is elevated, and consumer sentiment is deeply depressed. So where does the White House go next with its economic strategy? On this episode, we speak with Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council under President Joe Biden. Deese walks us through what the White House has done over the last year on supply chains, what's...

The price of oil has surged over the last year, and U.S. oil companies are making money hand over first. In theory, the high prices should stabilize as more drilling is done. But so far, the supply response has only been modest. After years in which U.S. oil companies (shale players, in particular) lit money on fire by expanding production at all costs, the industry is reluctant to invest in new p...

It's been a terrible few months for growth stocks. Small, unprofitable tech companies have crashed. SPACs have gotten crushed. Recent IPOs got crushed. And even the FANGs are way off their old highs. Of course, we don't have very much visibility into what's happening in private markets, so we only have anecdotes and inferences. But what's the big story? And is this the start of a big change? On th...

As inflation data continues to come in hotter than expected, pressure on the Fed is ramping up big time. Traders are betting on more and more hikes, with a distinct possibility of a 50 basis point hike in March. So the question is, can the Fed hike in such a way that it tamps down inflation while not causing a recession? On this episode we speak with economist Tim Duy of SGH Macro Advisors and the...

The book “Liar's Poker” came out in 1989. Its depiction of Wall Street culture — obnoxious, crude, drunk on risk — may seem very different to today's big bank trading floors. Nonetheless, the book is still a popular read. In some places, interns are even assigned to read it. So why the enduring appeal? And what are the lessons from the book, over 30 years since its release? On this episode, we spe...

We're in a period of elevated inflation right now. But at least there's some good news: The price of nails is lower than it was in 1695. But how do we know what the price of nails was back then? And what can such a long-term look tell us about innovation in such a seemingly simple product? To learn more, we spoke with Dan Sichel, an economist at Wellesley College, who has recently published a pape...

Obviously, there's been a tremendous amount of volatility in crypto lately. But what has been the effect on people who are deeply involved in the space? On this episode, we speak with Eva Beylin, who knows crypto as both an investor and a builder. As an investor, she's part of the amorphous investment collective known as eGirl Capital, which features numerous crypto anons who only know each other...

Over the last several months, Europe has seen its power costs soar. There are many drivers of it, but one factor has been a shift in Chinese energy consumption. While China has plenty of domestic coal resources, from time to time it imports quite a bit, depending on transportation costs. This can have major ramifications for prices outside of its borders. Meanwhile, China is undergoing a meaningfu...

Late last year, the big Chinese property developer Evergrande started running into severe financial distress, as its bonds tumbled and frustrated customers faced delays in getting their homes. Since then, it's gotten worse. Evergrande is still troubled, as are other property developers who have also run into stress. So what does it mean, and what are China's goals here? On this episode, we speak w...

The EV revolution is official on. Sales are soaring around the world as the internal combustion engine era starts to fade. But if you're just thinking about what's inside the car, you're missing some big stories. All kinds of industries and patterns of behavior are going to change because of the switch. On this episode, we speak with Nat Bullard, the Chief Content Officer at BloombergNEF, who walk...

If you wanted to buy a home in 2021, you probably found it a frustrating experience, rife with a shortage of options, and intense bidding wars. Well? Bad news: So far, things are even hotter in 2022. So what's going on? Where are all the homes disappearing to? Why is there nothing for sale? Why are people happy to place higher and higher bids? On this episode we speak with Mike Simonsen, the CEO a...

Near the end of 2021, Turkey's government undertook a bold measure to stabilize the lira after the currency got clobbered throughout much of the year. The basic idea is that the government would pay savers to lock up their currency in lira, and compensate them if it fell too far against the dollar. But can it work? Does it address the core problem of the Turkish economy? To understand more, and to...

The Afghanistan economy was already in bad shape, with heavy reliance on foreign dollars, prior to the collapse of the government and the takeover by the Taliban. Since the fall, things have gotten even worse, with inflation accelerating and GDP plunging. There are multiple factors at work, though the main one is the cutting off of outside sources of dollars. On this episode we speak with Ajmal Ah...

When people think about tools to fight inflation, usually things like taxes or monetary policy come to mind. But lately there’s been more discussion about corporate power (particularly concentrated corporate power) as a source of higher prices. So what can the government actually do? On this episode, we speak with Craig Seebald, a partner at Vinson & Elkins, and leader of the firm’s antitrust...

Agricultural commodities have generally surged in price over the last year. One commodity that's gone particularly wild is the coffee bean. Arabica beans — those at the premium end — are up about 100% since January 2021. So what's going on? Well, part of it is the generalized inflation, but like many other ags, weather has a lot to do with it. To start, bad weather in Brazil has had a negative imp...

The Turkish lira was incredibly volatile in 2021. After getting crushed and falling to record levels, it bounced back in the middle of December after the government announced an unconventional plan to encourage Turkish citizens to keep their money in lira rather than converting to dollars. But how does it work? And can it actually work over the long term? On this episode we speak with Lütfullah Bi...

Everyone's talking about Web 3.0 (or Web3), but there's a lot of ambiguity about what exactly it's going to look like or even what it is. Nonetheless, there's a lot of enthusiasm about a crypto-based, decentralized internet. So to learn more, we talk to one of the most interesting builders in the space. Mike Demarais is the co-founder of Rainbow.me, which makes an Ethereum wallet that emphasizes h...

2021 was a historic year for markets and the broader economy. For the first time, seemingly in ages, there was a serious shift in realized inflation and the broader inflation outlook. This has ramifications, potentially, for risk assets, bonds, and, of course, the Fed. To help break things down, and how to think about the situation, we speak with Jon Turek, the author of the Cheap Convexity Blog a...