Inside Markets

The bond market is telling us that hawkish rhetoric should be ignored given the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The SPX is technically overbought, positioning is no longer a tailwind and bullish sentiment is now elevated. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Higher bond yields by themselves shouldn't create a near-term headwind for equity markets, but higher bond volatility would.

Labor market dad should become a bigger input for Fed policy expectations going forward. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

A dominant recession narrative is unlikely to have equity-friendly implications. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Market based probability for rate cuts to begin in March is inconsistent with the prevailing soft-landing narrative.

The rotation out of mega-cap Tech and into YTD underperformers will likely continue for the next couple of weeks. In index terms, this would favor the Russell 2000 (RTY) over the Nasdaq 100 (NDX).

Momentum reversal at year-end, known as the January Effect, is one of the most consistent patterns in Equity Markets. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Without preemptive rate cuts, the Fed's commitment to higher for longer rates will eventually lead to large scale layoffs. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Yesterday’s dovish Fed comments, small uptick in consumer confidence and better-than-feared early holiday shopping trends has started early rotation into cyclical equity groups like banks, REITS, autos and housing.

The prevailing soft landing narrative includes expectations for 100bp of rate cuts in ’24. The presumed rate cuts have been driving recent dollar weakness and gold strength.

A US soft-landing in 2024 is the prevailing narrative with risks skewed toward a potential recession.

Inside Markets will not be published for the rest of the week. The next edition will be published Monday, November 27. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

This afternoon’s earnings report from NVDA will have near-term implications for semis, mega-cap Tech and the broader market.

The SPX advanced +2.2% last week, while the NDX gained 2.0% and Russell 2000 (RTY) +5.4%. The cooler inflation print increased conviction that the Fed is done with its hiking cycle.

Equity markets are in the middle of a strong seasonal period when upside often results in performance chasing into year-end. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The 'bad news is good' phase likely remains intact as disappointing data drives bond yields lower and should drive stock prices higher. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Yesterday's cooler CPI combined with the October Jobs report give reason to conclude the hiking cycle is now done. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The 4% YoY core CPI rate remains 2x higher than the Fed’s target. Today’s dip in the core rate likely means that rate hikes are over, but policy could remain restrictive until the 2% target is within range or until something breaks.   Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email t...

The Fed will likely wait for three consecutive months of lower YOY headline CPI prints before officially calling an end to the hiking cycle. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

We expect 10-year yields to remain above our 4.48% bullish inflection target for the remainder of Q4. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The market has entered a brief catalyst vacuum ahead of next week's CPI and retail sales reports. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

A confirmed peak in bonds yields should be an equity friendly development. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Last week, the S&P 500 (SPX) gained +5.9% as a lower-than expected Treasury refunding announcement, dovish Fed and disappointing data triggered a pullback in bond yields. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Disappointing macro data and a coincident decline in bond yields has driven equity upside this week, but investors will eventually need to consider the growth implications. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.