DRUNKENOMICS

But really, what we mean by that is we've elected our way into a political gridlock; which can be a good thing, but can also be a detriment. Granted, election results are still technically up in the air, but it's pretty safe to assume (lol) that the senate is going to be split 50/50; aka gridlock. In these scenarios, the rule book doesn't seem to ever change, since nothing really gets passed throu...

Three quarters later, we’re still not making progress towards the pipe dream of a soft landing. Inflation has shown no real signs of slowing down; yet GDP numbers and the labor market still suggests the Fed is no where near the ‘pivot’ point. I’m at the point where I’m honestly wondering if achieving the terminal inflation rate of 2% is even possible. Also, the same problems persist in Europe, and...

Apologies for all the classic punk rock references...this week goes to the song 'Clampdown' by The Clash from their masterpiece/genius album "London Calling." But a huge political shake up took place in the U.K. with the entrance of Rishi Sunak as their new Prime Minister. This announcement alone brought stability to the GBP and the English GILTs. Conversely, a whole new leadership lineup took pla...

Greetings all, hope you had a better week than the UK. The battle between saving pensions vs. saving the Pound-Sterling lingers on as the Minister of Finance was sacked; and the new plan proposed: pretend the proposed plan a few weeks ago by Liz Truss never happened. Meanwhile, here in the States, the soft landing is almost certainly out of the question as Bloomberg reported a 100% chance of a rec...

A 30-year fixed mortgages is now hovering around 7%; more than twice what it was a year ago. But because of compound interest, the cost of taking on a mortgage is through the roof (pun intended). Credit spreads have widened as lenders weigh interest rate, inflation, and duration risk; but mortgage lenders seem to be the most spooked in this environment. So...will there be a correction in the housi...

The Bank of England currently is facing a dilemma where they have to pretty much choose between crushing their government bonds (GILTs) or UK pension plans. To make things worse, OPEC+ has made the condescending decision to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day; which will likely cause oil prices to shoot up. However, there might be a light at the end of the tunnel? Sorry for being op...

What do you call the economic cycle that shows signs of pre-recession and recession at the same time? Seriously, what do you call it? Also, the Pound-Sterling is almost at parity with the US dollar, Italy has a new Prime Minister, Chinese Yuan has completely collapsed, and where the fuck is President Xi?? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook (Meta) @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspr...

Well, the nearly free liquidity the last decade has really hit a wall. The Fed announced this week that they are raising the Fed Funds Rate another 75 basis points and expressed their intention to repeat this hike two more times by year end. The 2-year yield has surpassed 4%, which will force investors to reconsider the risk premium for bonds and equities. And not to mention, there's a $8.7 trilli...

The Fed chair has said the word 'pain' during a presser on Friday, leading to a sharp decline in equities. Strangely enough, the bond market had little to no reaction. Why? Because it's been the same narrative for months. Also, big news on the student loan front. Listen for a breakdown of some of the pros and cons of it's implication. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook (Meta) @DRUNKENOM...

The US Dollar and Euro have hit parity once again and social media has made a parody out of it. For Americans, it may seem like having a strong currency index is great for our economy; but it what does this actually do for the import and export markets? I'll give you a hint, it has something to do with how big tech adjusted their year-end guidance for the rest of this year. Find us on Twitter, Ins...

The housing market is starting to show signs of cooling down, but will it actually face a crash or correction? There are plenty of catalysts on both sides of the argument worth drinking to. Additionally, could the stock market consolidation in the last few weeks be caused by the new excise tax that begins in the new year? I'm gonna need another drink for this one too. Find us on Twitter, Instagram...

So the Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in at 8.5% might be suggesting that inflation may have plateaued. So from the Fed's perspective, maybe 75 basis points from the last couple meetings is actually working. Or maybe just bureaucratic optimism of the Inflation Reduction Act passing has caused inflation to retreat. Either way, 8.5% inflation is still atrocious. On the bright side, we can always...

GDP numbers came out this morning although we recorded the night before. It's funny how the NBER has a different definition of a recession than what we are all technically used to; which is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And as of this morning, we officially got it. It may just be me, but it sure does look like, walk like, and quack like a duck (no offense to ducks). Find us on T...

Hey, hope this finds you well because the farmer protests in Europe have extended into Spain and Italy. Not to mention, the Italian government has fallen apart, the European Central Bank seems stuck, and The People's Republic of China (ironic name, I know) have sent tanks to protect their banks from protestors. We may need more whiskey than usual to get through this presentation. Find us on Twitte...

First off, sorry about the audio. We were having a tough time connecting the mic. However, we did have a nice dram of whiskey over the Dutch farming protests that spilled into a bunch of other protests. We also couldn't help but mention the immaculate timing of these protests in the midst of a global food shortage. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: Drunkenomics.my...

There are normally 4 different stages of a bear market cycle: Recognition, Initial sell-off/panic, dead-cat bounce/consolidation, then capitulation. In our humble opinion, we are currently in the midst of stage 3, waiting for the catalyst for capitulation. So how will we know when we're in stage 4? Listen to find out. We had to answer some questions off the bat so our answers to that question real...

Just a heads up, we do get pretty political at the 38:50 mark. We couldn't cower away from addressing the economic implications of certain political decisions made on the Hill. Nonetheless, Q2 is officially in the books as we say goodbye to June (great band by the way, Goodbye June). July is going to be a daunting month for the economy as we head deeper into QT, go into another earnings cycle, see...

The Fed once again reversed itself by raising interest rates by 75 basis points even after saying that was out of the question after the last meeting. So here we are, we have a Fed that's playing from behind out of desperation to recover whatever credibility they have left. And yes, they are somehow in charge of controlling money supply and unemployment. Godspeed y'all. Find us on Twitter, Instagr...

So now we're in a situation where everyone is looking to the Fed to solve inflation issues. Am I the only one that finds that incredibily discomforting? Also, am I the only one that notices that every projection, forecast, and timeline the Fed makes lasts about 3 days? In the Fed we (don't) trust. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook (Meta) @DRUNKENOMICAL LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.co...

Now that the 10-year yield is hovering around 3%, the discount rate for equities need re-evaluating. Not to mention, surging commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks are really cutting into profit margins and company forecasts. Even with this gloom, the markets seem to be consolidating right now; althought no one knows exactly what for. What will be the catalyst for a break out and which dire...

Our friend Luke Lloyd, as seen on Fox Business, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, & TD Ameritrade Network, joins us this week for multiple drams of bourbon. Naturally, once properly liquored up, we began discussing the state of the economy, job market, the Federal Reserve, and whether or not we're in the middle of a recession. Always nice catching up with an old friend! Find us on Twitter, Instagram, &...

The consumer sentiment index came in at it's 12-year lows upon the release of April's print. Although the index doesn't tell the whole economic story, it does have it's influence on inventories, manufacturing output, and even employment. So how is this thing measured and how significant is it to our GDP? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: Drunkenomics.myspreadshop....

Food shortages around the world have motivated countries to ban commodity exports. First with Indonesian palm oil, then Indian wheat, and now we have a long list of over a doxen countries banning food exports. As if supply chain woes and inflation haven't been bad enough, the world has come to enacting comprehensive protectionism. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch:...

So...how's navigating the carnage since the FOMC meeting been treating you? Seriously though, the bottom is insanely tough to predict and the markets have seen enough dead-cat bounces to make every dip look appealing. But godspeed to all you econoholics, I hope we can put our minds together and time the bottom! Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: Drunkenomics.myspre...

So we just experienced a quarter of negative GDP growth while core inflation is still at a four-decade high; I swear there's a name for this that sounds like a bourbon brand. Also, discount rates for equities are in a tight spot with the US10yr creeping above 3%. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: Drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: Patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Dru...