DRUNKENOMICS

Well, if you were looking for less yield volatility, 25 bps in cuts along with more clarity post-election didn't do you any favors. Also, we got inspired by our friends in our discord channel & decided to have some drinks to whether or not our Federal government officials should be allowed to trade or not. A lot to unpack there believe it or not. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @...

Apologies for the late publish, but we had to wait for election results before pouring that stiff one this week. Anyways, the red sweep after the election sent stocks soaring coupled with the Fed easing cycle continuing. Certainly a lot to unplack this week, so I'll just let you get to drinking. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patre...

In two weeks time, we'll be through election week followed by the first post-election rate decision by the Federal Reserve. So what all has happened in the last four years and what are some things to expect for the most pivotal week of the year? Grab a drink & find out. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunke...

What an eventful past couple weeks we experienced, huh? Starting with that amazing jobs report that caused the 10-yr yield to soar, suggesting that the Fed might've either been too Hawkish or too premature. Additionally, the Chinese hail mary of a stimulus package created some volatility overseas, but will it prove itself to be sustainable? Lastly, thoughts & prayers to the hurricane victims....

The Fed rate decision last week was something that certainly caught us all pretty off gaurd. If you remember, we were pretty much in the camp that a 25 basis point cut was going to take place last week. However, a 50bps cut really got us wondering if the economy is as strong or resilient as it seems. Because seriously, does the economy have any serious tailwinds aside from government spending &amp...

It's that time of the year again where people are starting to call it the September slump. However, the subject this week primarily revolves around the housing market, more elaborative discussions on some policies, and of course, the fun subject of labor hoarding. We promise to talk more about the September slump when we gather next for a dram of whiskey. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & F...

The Harris/Walz Campaign released their economic policy (among other things); but as a drinking podcast, we tried to focus on just how, if enacted, their economic plan will impact us. Starting with their tax on capital gains to, price caps, and housing subsidies, we're drinking some Vieux Carrè's to this plan. Cheers, Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drun...

Don't you also love seeing another tumultuous week in the markets? Looks like the interest arbitrage opportunity with low Japanese interest rates backfired for only a single day last week. However, cracks in the economy are starting to widen with weaker consumer sentiment, cooling inflation, and a ton of leverage. Also, big event on the political front. Had to warn you about that real quick......

First off, sorry for putting this one out so late...we had busy work schedules along with some tech issues; which can be severe given that this is a two-man shop. Nonetheless, a lot has happened on the political front that we can't ignore. Hate to talk politics, but the overlap from econ and politics is too apparent to ignore. Beyond that, we had an incredibly volatile market since the last Fe...

Hard to not discuss politics with the eventful weekend & week we've had. But, it is an election year so it's hard to talk around the elephant in the room. With that, we poured one out to the tragic event that took place over the weekend along with the announcement of Trumps running mate. Granted, the markets seem to care very little about that as Jerome Powell made some tumultuous rema...

We try really hard to leave politics out of our cocktails, but with everything going on, we really couldn't help it. Starting with the U.K., a snap election took place shifting the power spectrum on 10 Downing St. towards the left. Additionally, a young, left-leaning party in France also took over much of the voting strength in Parlement français. Then of course, there was the Presidential deb...

Remember when the Fed said inflation was transitory 3 years ago? Funny how that thesis played out. From there, remember when last fall & winter when the Fed talked about how much progress they made on inflation? Also funny how that thesis played out when revisions came around. Now, the Fed is boasting about the strength of the economy. This time, I must admit...they're really making me ner...

Welp. I finally did it; I had enough drinks and tried to solve all the world's problems while the mics were hot. Sorry if the ideas suck, but at least we were able to talk about the recent inflation print, elections among some of the BRICS countries, and the Fed meeting from earlier today. But seriously, it'd be nice to have a world where we didn't all depend on the Fed to solve the pr...

As another wave of graduates enter the work force, we try our best after a few drams and brews to provide our encouragement to our econoholics as they go about their job search. But first, we talked about some geopolitical suspicions along with some factors that potentially keeping investors awake at night...at least according to a Goldman Sachs survey. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Faceboo...

Another drink leading to another conversation about the Federal Reserve; especially since this is the first time we drank together since the May Fed meeting. But it's funny how volatile markets are whenever anyone from the Fed speaks in a public setting. It seems like all markets care about anymore is their progress on taming inflation. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMI...

Happy Fed week everybody! Or is it unhappy? Either way, we can all agree that the Fed's fight against inflation is starting to look like the The Battle of the Morannon in Lord of the Rings, except without the help of the ring being destroyed. Other facilities are being used in efforts to tame inflation, especially the unwinding of the balance sheet, but it all begs the question: what's the...

So...if you've been paying any attention to the markets lately, you might've noticed that there has been some major volatility lately. Most of this can probably be explained by the recent hawkish Fed posturing that took place back in the first week of the month. Though this outlook didn't come as a huge surprise to us, the bond markets seemed to be totally caught off guard as bond yiel...

It's pretty easy to have a robust economy and inflated housing market when the government deficit is still running rampant and has no real signs of slowing down. Additionally, core inflation has been revised upward, likely indicating that the Fed is slightly further away from their goal of taming inflation. But while we're here, cheers to the middle class. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, &a...

And not the corporate kind, but the kind as tax payers to the government. Anyways, more & more data is suggesting that the broader economy is resilient, giving the Fed no reason to lower rates (as we've seen today). However, as the debt maturity wall approaches, the Fed or Federal Government may be forced to take on other easing measures to mitigate some debt reinvestment risk from the mat...

AI Optimism has certainly led to some unusual price action in the stock markets. As a result, it seems as though the volatility skew has flipped on its head & shifted over to the call side of the options chain, driven by FOMO. But while we're still talking about AI, is this something that's even actionable? How long will it take to implement? And does it have the potential to wreck the...

The Fab Four/Mag Seven, as we all know, has really spearheaded the recent strength and momentum in the major markets. But could there potentially be some risks or external factors that could potentially arrest their momentum? Well, of course there are; but on the other hand, they could also not ever come to fruition. Also, retail sales number for January are noteworthy; you get a chance to look at...

So...we've been on our good news bears train for a bit now; but with recent economic data released along with us all surviving the first Fed week of 2024, we may find ourselves back in a situation where good news is bad news. With numbers coming in strong, this leaves the Fed more room to be hawkish (which is what I meant at the 30min mark when I misspoke), meaning tightness around financial m...

As we approach a unique business cycle where the economy is seemingly strong despite inflation pressures, the walls may seemingly be closing in as this giant debt maturity wall approaches. Economists believe this may compel the Fed to step in, but who says that's even within their job description. On the bright side, markets as a whole seem optimistic about the massive cash balance still left...

Welcome to 2024 everyone, hope you all had a great holiday season! Because we have yet to see any sort of "landing" in 2023, hopefully we can see a good economic resolution and turning point in 2024. Either way, we're still on our good news bears train because why not. But with the bulk of cash uninvested on the sidelines along with the Federal reserve potentially cutting rates a few...

Another December to remember thanks to this post Fed Santa Claus rally. However, tensions in the Middle East brewing could finally get us off our Good News Bears train. In any event, it's been a great year y'all! Loved drinking with you guys & we'll see you again in the new year! Cheers, Drunkenomics