Basis Points

The Fed left the interest rates unchanged at today’s FOMC meeting, keeping the trading range at 5.25% –5.50%. Could the markets still see another rate hike in 2023? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the possibility of another rate hike as we move into Q4 and head toward 2024. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

One of the more surprising outcomes so far this year is that markets have yet to see a recession. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan examines two indicators of economic growth, GDI and GDP, and discusses what to anticipate in Q3 and the rest of 2023.  Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent. 

While the Fed has emphasized that future policy decisions would be based on the “totality” of upcoming economic data, make no mistake, employment reports go to the front of the line. As the September FOMC meeting approaches, Kevin Flanagan analyzes the latest jobs numbers on this week’s episode of the Basis Points podcast. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

While Powell didn’t offer up any groundbreaking headlines in his Jackson Hole speech last week, the overarching message from the chair still resounds loud and clear: rates will be “higher for longer.” This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan aims to answer the question, how high and how long? Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

For those looking for a summer respite for the bond market in August…think again. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan gets into the root causes of the recent increase in the 10-Year yield and whether it is reasonable to expect a reversal any time soon. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

How does the U.S. budget deficit affect the Treasury market and the economy? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan covers the recent developments on the deficit, the U.S. government’s long-term rating downgrade, and the funding challenges. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.

Throughout the course of the current Fed rate hike cycle and attendant increase in the U.S. Treasury (UST) 10-year yield, investors periodically ask: is it time to go long duration? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan explains why it’s better to be late rather than early to the duration party against this backdrop. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

The Federal Reserve voted to raise rates by another quarter point at today’s FOMC meeting. This pushes the fed funds target range to the highest level since early 2001. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the outcome of today’s meeting and what to expect for the remainder of the year from the Fed. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

Is 2022 the year not to be named? After what was arguably the worst year on record, we believed this year could be a positive one for bond investors. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan takes a look back and ahead at key economic indicators to provide a first half report card for the fixed income markets and what investors might expect in the second half of the year. Basis Point:...

Following the June FOMC meeting where Fed hit pause, speculation began to intensify about what the policymakers next move could be. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan delves into the recent Fed developments and if the Fed is really going to pause rate hikes for the summer. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

As the Federal Reserve's "hawkish pause" dominates headlines, investors are left wondering when the long-anticipated recession will be coming. During this week’s episode of the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan is joined by Head of Credit Strategy, Sri Sankaran of Morgan Stanley to discuss the current dynamics in the high yield bond, credit default and leverage loan markets. Basis...

Throughout this Fed rate hike cycle, there always seemed to be some sort of disconnect between what the policymakers were saying and what the money and bond markets were thinking. Recently, 'don't fight the Fed' seems to be the current sentiment. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the shift. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.

For the first time since the Fed began raising rates in March of last year, the voting members did not implement a rate increase at the recent June FOMC meeting. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses U.S. monetary policy implications, including investor expectations for the remainder of the year as Powell & Co. take a pause from rate action.  Basis Points: 1/100th of...

With the debt saga still ongoing, sometimes looking at current headlines juxtaposed with historical events can provide some useful context. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan covers what investors can learn from the 2011 credit rating downgrade. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent

The money and bond markets find themselves in an interesting spot on the calendar, nestled right in between the May and June FOMC meetings. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the latest Fedspeak and if it could translate to a skip, a pause, or even a cut. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent. 

It’s been roughly two months now operating in a post-Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) World and the markets are still feeling its impact. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses a very important arena where developments have seemingly flown under the radar of late: the funding markets.  Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent. 

How concerned should investors be about the pending debt ceiling debate? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan reviews past debt ceiling sagas, discusses what investors should focus on and looks at possible outcomes.  Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent. 

In what was a widely expected outcome, the Fed raised interest rates by another quarter point today, elevating the Fed Funds trading range to its highest level since 2007. Now what? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses what to expect from Powell & Co. next and what to anticipate for the investment landscape in the months ahead.  Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent. 

Do you remember when inverted Treasury Yield Curves were all the rage? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan reflects on the year that was and covers the state of the inverted treasury yield curves along with its predictive value on recession fears today. Listen now as Kevin discusses what’s at play in the Treasury market for investors, including, among other things, the 2- and 10-...

After a slew of second-tier data points last week, the market was feeling uneasy about the economy's health, but the March jobs report could provide some breathing room for investors. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the impact of the latest economic data on the treasury market and potential recession risks. Listen now as Kevin dives deeper into the intersection...

This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses a new dynamic in the U.S. Treasury market ignited by the recent banking crisis. Listen now to hear Kevin’s insights regarding elevated volatility, unusual trading and key yield activities over the last month.  Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent. 

This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the Fed’s actions following the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. During the episode, Kevin covers the regional and international impact of the collapse and provides a silver lining as the markets continue to grapple with the aftereffects. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent. 

For the second meeting in a row, the Fed implemented a 25 basis point rate hike, bringing the new fed funds trading range to 4.75% - 5%. The question on everyone’s mind now is whether the Fed continues on their rate hike mission, or is a pause, or even a rate cut in the near future. During this week’s episode of the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the Fed’s attempt to thread the nee...

Last week was eventful for the bond markets. During this week’s episode of the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan reviews the latest developments against the current backdrop. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

While inflation appears to have peaked last summer, unfortunately for the Fed, and by extension the bond market, the future road may not be as much of a one-way street to the downside as we saw during the autumn months. During this week's episode of the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan covers the latest Consumer Price Index data and explains why the Fed will continue to operate under the assum...