Macro Horizons

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their outlook for credit spreads through three distinct factors: technicals, fundamentals, and the macro landscape. On balance, they conclude these factors should point to narrower spreads with credit spreads likely to retest cyclical tights into year-end.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 16th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 9th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Greg Anderson, Dan Krieter and Ben Jeffery from BMO’s FICC Macro Strategy team bring you their debate on the longer-term viability of the Fed’s characterization of inflation and the implications for U.S. rates, high quality spreads and FX.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 2nd, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 26h, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the ramifications of the recent bout of Treasury market volatility including the modest widening in credit spreads and discuss whether more weakness will be realized. Other topics include the threats to global growth and rising inflation and front-end dynamics ahead of the month-end debt ceiling deadline.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 19th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Ben Reitzes, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO Capital Market’s FICC Macro Strategy team bring debate of perceived risks as the Fed attempts to thread the growth/inflation needle, the debt ceiling suspension deadline approaches, and taper talk heats up.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 12th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the recent rally in Treasury yields and what it means for credit spreads. Other topics include the implications for Fed policy and forthcoming details on a potential boost for corporate paper from pension funds.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 6th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the likely path of credit spreads in Q3 including the supply and demand factors that will drive credit markets including deleveraging, financial issuance, and seasonality.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 28th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss three major adjustments impacting their markets in recent weeks. First, the Fed’s changing outlook on inflation including the risk inflation is higher and more persistent than expected. Second, they discuss an adjustment to the IG index controlling for credit quality and duration which shows in spreads trading well within all-time tights. Finally, they discuss th...

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 21st, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their takeaways from the June FOMC which featured a more hawkish outlook from the Summary of Economic Projections, an acknowledgement that the Fed might be underestimating the likely path of inflation, and a technical adjustment to the Fed’s administered rates. They conclude with a brief discussion on what tapering will likely mean for credit spreads later this y...

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 14th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the factors most likely to break spreads from current ranges including relative value, the Fed’s plan to sell SMCCF holdings, and technicals. They then discuss recent developments in the LIBOR transition, including the proliferation of BSBY and ARRC’s guidance that term SOFR will be available by early-August.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 7th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Ben Reitzes, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO’s FICC Macro Strategy team to bring you their discussion of the market’s pricing of inflation risk and the richness in money markets and what these themes imply for US and Canadian rates, high quality spreads and foreign exchange.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 1st, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of May 24th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the recent resilience in credit spreads despite volatility in other asset classes. They offer two competing interpretations of the stability, with ramifications for the near term path of credit.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of May 17th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.