The Fourcast

In a world facing overlapping crises - from Sudan, to Lebanon to the wider issues in the Middle East - the demand for humanitarian aid has never been greater. But as needs grow, the global response is struggling to keep up. In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Tom Fletcher, the United Nations’ Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordina...

Peter Mandelson, the problem that won’t go away. Keir Starmer is once again fighting to save his political career, after saying he was not told Mandelson had failed security vetting ahead of his appointment as US ambassador. So what really happened? Is this a failure of leadership or does it point to a deeper rot inside Westminster? And either way, can Starmer survive it?  On this episode of The F...

The ceasefire between the US and Iran is holding - for now. But beneath the surface, the signals tell a more uncertain story. In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei is joined by defence analyst Mark Urban and International Editor Lindsey Hilsum to examine the key signs shaping what happens next. From US military build-up in the region to Iran’s strategic use of the Strait of Hormuz,...

Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has come into force, but ships are reportedly still getting through, including a Chinese linked tanker. So, what is actually going on right now? How long could this blockade last and what happens if American forces try to seize a Chinese linked vessel?  On this episode of the Fourcast, Alex Thomson is joined by retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery...

Hungary has woken up to a political earthquake. After more than a decade in power, Viktor Orbán has been defeated, with Péter Magyar securing a historic landslide victory in an election seen as a major test for democracy in Europe. It’s a slap in the face for Donald Trump - after JD Vance called on Hungarians to support their incumbent leader. But did his attempt to raise support for Orban do the...

What is really going on in Lebanon? Less than 24 hours after Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran, Israel launched a massive wave of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah across the country. Iran says Israel is violating the terms of the ceasefire - so could the peace talks set to be held tomorrow in Islamabad collapse before they’ve even started? And is this exactly what Israel wants?  On this e...

It’s uncertain whether the ceasefire Donald Trump brokered with Iran will hold after Israel launched a massive barrage of airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon leading Tehran to reclose the Strait of Hormuz.  US vice president JD Vance, who is leading the US delegation to Islamabad in Pakistan, has acknowledged that the ceasefire is “fragile”.  So is there any chance it could lead to a last peac...

Wireless Festival has been cancelled, following the government’s decision to block Kanye West’s permission to travel to the UK.   The American rapper, who’s now known as Ye, was due to headline the festival in Finsbury Park in the summer.  He has a long history of antisemitic comments and actions, including writing a song glorifying Adolf Hitler. Mr West has blamed this on a brain injury and misse...

NASA’s Artemis ll mission has blasted off to the moon - with the familiar rhetoric of exploration and human achievement. It’s the first crewed voyage out of low earth orbit in more than half a century - but behind the celebration - another story is taking shape. The modern ‘space race’ is a high-stakes contest for military, economic and technological dominance here on earth. A contest where whoeve...

Is President Trump on the cusp of pulling out of the Iran war or about to double down with boots on the ground?  He’s lashed out again at his Nato allies threatening to abandon the alliance, raising questions not only about the future of the war, but the future of Western security itself. On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei was joined by General Sir Patrick Sanders, who has had a 40 year ca...

Donald Trump has told the UK to “go and get your own oil” from the Strait of Hormuz as Iran continues to block the crucial energy chokepoint and as reports circulate that the UK is to receive its last tanker of jet fuel from the Middle East this week.  So what are the real risks to the UK economy, energy security, and global position as this conflict rumbles on? On this episode of The Fourcast, Ma...

Welcome to Fourcast Indicators on the Iran War with Matt Frei and defence and intelligence analyst Mark Urban. Fourcast Indicators looks at the signals that analysts watch most closely - the tell-tale signs that suggest imminent and significant change may be coming. This week we take a deep dive into the intelligence, military logistics, and the geopolitical fallout of the bombardment of Iran. We...

Social media giants Meta and Google have been found liable for building platforms that are addictive and a court has ordered them to pay millions in damages, but both firms say the case oversimplifies a complex issue and are expected to appeal the ruling. In this episode of The Fourcast, we break down the case and what it could mean for the future of Big Tech. Is this a genuine turning point - a p...

President Trump is talking about deals to end the war with Iran, but Tehran says it’s “fake news” as they continue to exchange attacks with Israel. So where does this war go from here, and what does an endgame actually look like? On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei was joined by Dr Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, associate professor Modern Middle Eastern History at the University of St Andrews and...

Is Donald Trump backing down from a potential strike on Iran - or is this a strategic pivot? In this episode of the Fourcast, we unpack the latest twists in US-Iran tensions as Trump insists talks are “good and productive,” despite Tehran claiming a firm warning forced a retreat. With the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of the crisis and global markets reacting fast, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Are American boots on the ground inevitable in Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s war with Iran? With reports that over 2,000 Marines are being deployed, questions are growing over Washington’s strategy and whether the president has a clear plan.  Could the US attempt something as bold as seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s critical oil hub? On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Nate...

Saudi Arabia is warning it may retaliate against Iran after fresh threats to oil and gas infrastructure as Donald Trump’s administration desperately tries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  With strikes hitting key energy facilities across the Gulf, this conflict is no longer just military - it’s an economic war with global consequences. So how far could this escalate? And what does it mean for ener...

18 days into a war that has reshaped the Middle East, the question that matters most is also the hardest to answer: who is actually winning. Washington says Iran is collapsing under the weight of thousands of strikes. Tehran claims it is bleeding its enemies and outlasting them. Oil prices are surging, missiles are still flying and the region is on edge. In today’s episode of The Fourcast, Matt Fr...

Across the battlefields of Ukraine, Gaza and now Iran, artificial intelligence is reshaping how wars are fought. AI is helping militaries process intelligence, identify targets and make decisions at a rapidly accelerating pace. Some believe this is the beginning of an AI revolution in warfare - one that could eventually lead to autonomous weapons and algorithmic battlefields. So how far has this t...

The conflict in Iran is entering its second week, and the shockwaves are rippling across the globe - through global markets, shipping routes and regional security alliances. In the past 24 hours, multiple ships have been hit in the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route effectively closed by Iran, and now the Iranian regime has said the country’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was “lightly inj...

The war in Iran is already sending shockwaves far beyond the battlefield. Stock markets are sinking, Brent crude has jumped above $100  a barrel, and G7 governments are considering tapping emergency reserves to steady the markets. Missiles landing close to critical Gulf energy infrastructure have sharpened fears that what began as a regional confrontation could tip the global economy into somethin...

It’s seven days since America and Israel launched a war against Iran - the Middle East is on fire, the Qataris are warning of a global economic disaster and Donald Trump’s White House is pumping out propaganda clips of their airstrikes spliced with Hollywood memes. So what kind of world do we now live in? And what could come next?  On the latest episode of The Fourcast Krishnan Guru-Murthy is join...

The war in the Middle East is rapidly expanding. Azerbaijan is now the latest country reportedly hit by Iranian drones while another missile barrage struck Tehran and Beirut overnight. The seas aren’t immune either: Iranian warships have been sunk, and a US oil tanker is reportedly on fire in the Gulf. Now there are signs a land war could be beginning, with reports Kurdish fighters may have crosse...

The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has already rattled the global economy. Gas prices have jumped 30% to a three-year high, oil is surging, tankers are stuck in the Strait of Hormuz and refineries across the region are under attack. Stock markets from London to Tokyo are tumbling, and hopes of interest rate cuts in the UK and US are fading fast. So how serious is this ec...

The crisis in the Middle East is deepening by the day. The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader has triggered a regional shockwave, from missile launches to unrest in neighbouring states. But what does this moment really reveal about the Iranian state, its capacity for survival, and the calculations being made in Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran? In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy...