The Final Bell

5-22-20 Looking at the frustration of turning the corner on COVID & then a trade war starts picking up. White House puts out 16-page release in regards to China. Will we see counter measures? Is China to be blamed for what is happening globally as we see countries increase pressure on China & China in turn puts tariffs in place. Torpedo’s Taiwan & soybeans. Seasonally tendencies for corn. Heading...

Looking at export numbers released today, weather front moving in bring some much-needed moisture to the western corn belt. Some trade friction with a return to demand. Mike had a report he did looking at China. Is there some retaliation coming from China to countries that question the COVID-19 start? Cattle on Feed report out on Friday. Grocery store with ground beef prices.

Corn received the short end of the spreads. Wheat has had some dry weather issues. The virtual wheat tour is under way in Kansas. How will that effect the way the market trades? Brazil has had some weather, is there a break headed their way in the drought. EU & Black Sea weather…what is the damage? Impact of the CARES act what will that mean for the markets. Update on African Swine Fever.

5-19-20 President Trump spoke to the farmers today. How are his comments going to have an effect on the markets today & in the days to come? Is the world starting to turn against China & will it help to straighten things out? Politics involved muddies the waters. Is there some stabilization happening in the ethanol market? The President also suggested not taking beef from other countries. A quiet...

Why was the Monday trade so quiet? Is it the calm before the storm? Dow was up, talk of China & trade once is making the news. Is the bans on foreign trade circling back to COVID-19 & China. Cooler temps will that have any effect on the crop progress tonight? Australia gets a tariff put in place on beef from China, China turns around and buys blueberries & barley from the U.S. will this lead to mo...

Post virus reopening…crude oil is getting higher; ethanol demand is picking up. Is there a shift in the markets? Potential inflation due to spending? COVID outbreaks at the ports in South America. What does that mean for U.S. exports? Crazy milk market. Seeing some pre-virus prices in come contracts! Lower box beef levels on a Friday.

May contract goes off the board today. Some disappointment in the beans. Weather will continue to be on the back burner. Bean & China…what about the trade talk wants? Cattle had another rough day with hogs being able to hold their own. Thoughts on the movement of boxed beef.

Risk off across the board. Equities under pressure. Did we forget about yesterday’s WASDE report that fast? Global economy is it falling apart? Are we opening to quick? Has a negative tone been set? How is the ethanol market faring? How dry is it in the Western U.S.? Another drop in the cattle market …same battle with what the value of the animals are at the slaughter plants.

Reaction to the WASDE report. Big stocks to use ratio for corn. How will these numbers play out into the rest of the trading week? Significant acres remain unharvested in North Dakota last month, USDA will re-contact producers there in May to gather production data on those acres. We will find those numbers out in June. Ethanol production numbers from today’s report. Only one big number in soybean...

Chinese buying soybeans. WASDE on Tuesday. Est for 2020 carryout is 3.3 billion could be a new record. Largest corn crop on record. What about the stocks to use ratio? How will ethanol & feed demand fair? What are the soybean numbers looking like? Lower stocks & carryout for wheat. On the flip side livestock took a hit on a Monday for the cattle. Hogs were lower, but not as drastic as the cattle m...

Green on the screen for a Friday in the grains. To keep in perspective, low commodity prices is taking its toll. Change in the week for corn, beans, wheat, cattle & hogs for the week. Demand & exports. Weather, ethanol working towards processing with DDG’s for livestock.

5-7-20 Another limit up day in the livestock…what does that mean for the near term? Relationship between grain & livestock producers in these current times. Will we see $500 Choice boxed beef? We go through these feelings every year with market movements, just this year its escalated feelings. We are socially isolated on a regular day in ag, but as it continues the feels are getting more stressed....

This weekend’s freeze, what does this mean for the Midwest? Weather in the Black Sea, Brazil sees less rain opportunities. What kind of summer do we suspect? Don’t forget next Tuesday’s WASDE report looking at the 20-21 marketing year. Cash cattle trade saw some .95 & then 1.10…that helped the limit up trade.

5-5-20 Planting progress. USDA report next week on the 12th. Delivery against the May futures starting to roll in. Will we see some changes to exports, ethanol and what could be on the balance sheet for old crop? Will there be a corn vs. bean war? War with China again? Livestock…rolling positions. Cash prices & box beef movement. So how does Wendy’s/McDonald’s COSTCO/HyVee limiting meat purchases....

5-4-20 Big show list as expected…teared market on the cash last week. Boxed beef is over $400 the disparity between producer and packer continues. Will we kill big numbers this week? Social economics will weigh in on the plants…the length this will drag in on the markets. Hogs has just as big of problems as cattle, but they had a $32 rally on the front. Outlook into the weeks ahead. Grains: Non th...

There is some optimism with the livestock market. Grains didn’t end the week like many had hoped. A lot of little of things added to the trade for the grains. China goes on holiday next week, the big bean purchase of Thursday-did bring some disappointment on Friday. Planting progress has gone well in Nebraska but to the east there has been some issues. Plants at reduced rates still weighing in on...

Has China returned to some buying of U.S. goods? Is there some improvement in the ethanol margins? Corn, beans & cattle bring a positive day. Fastest planting pace in a few years. Will there be a bean vs. corn acre war this year? Trade of the dollar today could that be supportive to the export markets? Live cattle saw higher number while feeders struggled.

Declaration on packing plants. Ethanol & gas reports are out, a bump in gasoline production. South America with crop production & weather in SA & the Black Sea. Global currencies.

Tyson NY Times ad, President Trump to order meat processors to stay open. May delivery, energies in the market trade. Real time livestock issues are weighing in on the grain markets. Lower crop ratings from the NASS in the weekly USDA report. Wheat will be the big player in the next 30 days.

Planting progress…a lot of talk has been corn, is a low in place or are we close? With crude oil drop continuing how is that going to effect ethanol? Could we see a time where funds will not go long? How is all the corn happenings going to effect the bean acres? What kind of pressure could wheat put on these markets (spring wheat). Pressure coming in from South America-how detrimental are these hi...

Is corn going to finds its way into rations with DDGs becoming less and less? Ramifications of a snowball effect. Revisiting delivery on corn & the crude oil futures. These futures are deliverable, basis contracts…options expired today (Friday) for the May contracts. What does history show for corn? There is an ongoing pattern for corn. What should producers be doing while holding their old crop?...

What is the best way to describe the corn and soybean markets? How would you describe the current situation with Crude Oil? Is gasoline demand starting to improve? What are the major problems that the ethanol industry is having right now? Can ethanol recover much in price without Crude Oil finding a bottom in price? Do you think we are close to finding a bottom in the corn and soybean markets? How...

Lessons learned from the crude oil market this week. Changed the paradigms & you can’t count on the old rules. COVID-19…don’t know the scope of the demand destruction. Ethanol demand. Positive note is weather issues in the Black Sea, South America & China. China & Phase One…could mean a better second ½ of the year. Increase in ASF.

Stress levels in the markets right now. Will gas prices come down, how does the crude oil trade of yesterday effect the markets going forward. Could there be stabilization in the ethanol market that will affect the corn, livestock & dollar trade? Meal market turn’s around. More South American crops headed to Asia then in year’s past. Packing plants are coming back online.

Crude oil trade was everyone’s talk. What does this mean for our grain’s? Ethanol production-what will happen if we don’t have the market once harvest begins, planting progress. Export inspections didn’t have anything good today. Stimulus money announced on Friday…what does that mean for grains/livestock? More plants are closing due to COVID-19