JSEDirect with Simon Brown

"Brought to you by Absa ETFs" 300 shows, I haven't been making a fuss because it just feels old, very old. Add to that almost three years as a live radio show on Classic FM, starting from 8 July 2008. It's almost ten years of a weekly (albeit changing) show. We started life focusing outside the Top40 as the other shows seldom ever did anything in the small and mid cap space - then everybody did. S...

"Brought to you by Absa ETFs" Simon Shares 2017 GDP was 1.3%, better than the expected 1% and hopefully means that the treasury 2020 GDP expectation of 2.1% is wildly low. Bleak trading update from Sasfin (JSE code: SFN). But still trading at tangible net asset value (TNAV) levels. MMI drop their dividend in favour of share buy backs and drops cover from 1.5x-1.7x to 2.5x. Considering the dividend...

"Brought to you by Absa ETFs" Simon Shares The new cabinet is of course a compromise, that's the nature of our political system. But the important departments are markedly better hands (SOEs, treasury & mining). New tax-free year kicks off today. R33,000 per year and transfer are now also possible. Up coming events; ABSA NewFunds ETF seminars (DBN, CPT, JHB and webcast) Leverage your investment po...

" Brought to you by Absa ETFs "  Simon Shares Discovery* (JSE code: DSY) results were top notch and complicated as they always are. I own this stock as the business model really works, but as I have mentioned before the complexity adds risk. Risk I am happy with as most stocks I own have real simple business models. JSE (JSE code: JSE) results show HEPS down 6%. But look at value being traded thes...

Simon Shares Market continues to wait for president Zuma to go. It is taking time but ejecting a leader usually does take time and markets are patient and way more interested in what is happen in the US with inflation data out after I have recorded this podcast. This will likely be the driver for now. When Zuma eventually goes, and he will go, then market can move on that info. It is messy (as pol...

Simon Shares Dual CEOs at Investec (JSE codes: INL / INP)? Market sells off and rebounds (a bit) and we're in correction territory (down 10%). The falling property stocks of Resilient, Nepi Rockcastle, ForstressB & Greenbay (JSE codes: RES, NRP, FFB & GRB) continue to trade down at the low levels they hit when Viceroy concerns initially hit the market in early January. Capitec* still under fire fr...

Viceroy charges into Capitec* I think we're missing a point with this latest Viceroy report on Capitec . Sure we're proud of the business and if you're a shareholder you've made amazing returns. But we seem to be circling the wagons and shooting the messenger rather then actually discussing the merits of the report. Two important thoughts to ponder. What if Viceroy had published their Steinhoff re...

Global Dividend Aristocrats ETF This week Simon chats to Chris Rule from CoreShares on their soon to be listed Global Dividend Aristocrats ETF. It uses dividends as a quality metric rather then searching for yield and much like the MSCI World ETFs we have locally it is concentrated in the US at 53% with Europe making up another 22% but it is light on tech. You can book for the events here . Subscr...

Simon Shares Aspen (JSE code: APN) being vice squeezed. Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) trading update, "impact of a potential re-assessment of the carrying value of the David Jones assets". Watch out for the "goodwill write downs are not cash", true but they were paid for with cash. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) update seemed lighter then I had expected, good but not awesome. That said market liked it and s...

Every year the first JSE Direct of the year is our annual predictions show. Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan, Small/Midcap fund manager at Alpha Wealth and Just One Lap founder Simon Brown review their predictions from the previous year and make their top three predictions for 2018. They then also make a call on the Top40 and ZAR/US$ for the year. You can find the 2017 edition here . Subscriber to our...

Simon Shares EOH (JSE code: EOH), so the collapse was because of directors margin calls that forced them to sell? This is an epic disaster, if it was my board I would fire them. A share price collapse has real consequences, especially for a company like EOH that uses their shares for acquisitions. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) mess continues but an interesting meme occurring in an attempt to make sure...

Our signature yearend JSE Power Hour presented by Just One Lap founder, Simon Brown . Simon looks at what he predicted last year before embarking on his 2018 predictions that include; Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) Naspers (JSE code: NPN) Bitcoin (BTC) The December ANC elective conference, who'll win and how will this impact our market Junk status The R50billion tax hole looming in the February budget...

Simon Shares Twitter poll for tonight's JSE Power Hour presentation ~ What's your expectation for the Top40 in 2018? Time for my annual poll .. What's your expectation for the Top40 in 2018 ? #JSE — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) December 4, 2017   Steinhoff, where there's smoke Markus Jooste has also quit Stenihoff (JSE code: SNH), Star (JSE code: SRR), PSG (JSE code: PSG) and Phumelela Gaming (JSE code:...

Simon Shares More downgrades as S&P Globals makes our local debt junk as well to go with Fitch. Moody's gave us 90 days which takes us to just after the February budget and if they drop us then we full on 100% junk, AKA Brazilian. The Rand is powering ahead trading in the R13.60's against US$. My call for a stronger Rand remains in force. Slowly but surely. The latest Long4Life* (JSE code: L4L) de...

Simon Shares I am traveling this week so recording on Monday and hence no thoughts. Naspers (JSE code: NPN) hits R4,000.00. Survey results are out. Up coming events; Position your portfolio for 2018 *  I hold ungeared positions . Stop faffing, start trading I want to aim this mostly at the newbie traders. Those who've been flirting with the idea of trading for ages. Maybe you've tried your hand at...

Simon Shares Zimbabwean coup, or not coup or whatever. People are all asking me what's the best investment thesis here. There isn't one, a coup is not great for an economy. A democratic functioning state is what is good for investments. My comments last week about large M&A activity seldom working promoted a number of responses about successful deals - but all were private (not listed). This makes...

Simon Shares More highs locally and global for markets. And of course that makes everybody worried and certain we're about to crash. Well we will most definitely crash, just nobody (and I mean nobody) knows when. So as always ignore the doomsayers. Tencent buys a 10% stake in Snap, a clever deal as it gets them into the US market. It also means we now all own some Snap via any Top40 ETF we have wi...

Simon Shares Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) results were nasty. Local was weak but the real issue is the UK GBP purchase that cost a bunch and is not performing. Long4Life (JSE code: L4L) is now 510c as I record. Nice price and a lesson that we must never chase stocks. Sasfin (JSE code: SFN) has a price-to-book (PB) of around 1x and that is always a buy signal for the stock. Ungeared and hold unti...

Books Trading Trading in the Zone – Mark Douglas ( detailed review ) Trend Following – Michael Covel ( detail review ) Reminiscences of a Stock Operator – Edwin Lefevre Investing One up on Wall Street – Peter Lynch ( detailed review ) Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits – Phil Fisher ( detailed review ) Effective Investor – Franco Busetti Intelligent Investor – Benjamin Graham 123 Download the audi...

Simon Shares Local markets have been making new all time highs and right now the sellers look shell shocked and unable to exert any real downside pressure. Taste (JSE code: TAS) results were just a shocker and they need money fast, real fast. Pick 'n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results were uninspiring. Like for like sales after inflation went down as they continue to lose market share and operating margi...

Simon Shares Just two weeks ago I was moaning about a sideways market going nowhere, now we have eight green days in a row with local markets joining much of the world at all time highs. Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) trading update was bleak, very bleak. Interest costs we expected, they suggest SA doing well enough. But UK losing money after paying some R2billion is a shocker. PPC (JSE code: PPC)...

Simon Shares Market going nowhere, I take a week off and it literally goes sideways in tight range. Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) results saw HEPS up 17% (trading statement said 15%-18%, they always come in near top of range). Lots of wow numbers; 9.2million active clients and cost-to-income ratio at 36%. The disputed arrears coverage ratio is back at 237% after concerns about it decreasing a year ago...

Simon Shares Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) results very modest as they reduce dividend for H2 but keep it flat for the year. Clover (JSE code: CLR) results were ouch, very ouch. They call it a perfect storm, I call it over priced branded milk. Spur (JSE code: SUR) were also very bleak and give us some insights to the Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) due at the end of October. Now Famous Brands has a wa...

Simon Shares Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) trading update is looking for HEPS to be 15%-18% higher. Modest for a 27x PE stock with consensus being 18.7%. The DB x-tracker ETFs will see their name change on Monday 18 September as Sygnia completes the purchase process. The new name is Sygnia Itrix and the ETF codes will see DBX replaced with SYG.Rhodes Food Group (JSE code: RFG) got hit after a trading u...

Simon Shares Telkom (JSE code: TKG) has confirmed government wants to sell their 39% stake in the company, likely to bail out SAA. Classic rookie error, exiting good trade to keep bad trades. Amazingly good results from Home Choice (JSE code: HIL), but with zero liquidity in the stock the results are merely of passing interest. Decent results form AdaptIT (JSE code: ADI) albeit some margin pressur...